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Zarathustra
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
I think one of the reasons why the same rules might not apply is that in the past the changes that have come as a result of introduction of new technologies have been relatively spread out in time. The new AI could effectively effectively wipe out the human component behind huge swathes of different areas of work at a stroke.
We've been introducing new technology into the workplace for 1000s of years. We've also been wiping out huge swathes of the workforce at a stroke for 100s of years. We've literally had computers replacing human work for more than half a century. This is not new. This has happened many times.

Granted, AI is different in the sense that its ability to replace humans goes beyond physical automation into areas that humans might consider more their "turf," i.e. jobs that take more skill and/or judgment. But new technology always allows us to do more, not less. AI will amplify what we can do, freeing us to do other things.

peter wrote:
This guy made the point that we just don't seem to be planning for the tech revolution that is nearly upon us and will hit us quite literally like a juggernaut. The man went on to comment that the difference between a positive future or a dystopian one would be settled simply upon the preparedness with which politicians met these advances/changes which sit shortly around the corner - and the augers on their current level of planning, where not good.
Politicians are utterly useless in this regard. The government can't manage the economy. People have to educate themselves.

This is not going to hit us like a juggernaut, no more than self-driving cars has hit us like a juggernaut. We've been waiting for them to work the bugs out of that idea for, what, over a decade now? Clearly, the problem was harder than the "futurists" first thought. The pizza guy still comes to my door, and he will for decades to come. Entire swathes of the workforce aren't going to be gone overnight. Technology is always more expensive at the beginning, even if it gets cheaper eventually. It will take time for AI to filter out into the workplace on a significant scale.

Pizza Hut, for instance, is not going to buy a fleet of 10,000 self-driving cars to replace each and every driver, especially when it can pay them minimum wage to use their own cars. A $40,000 (or more?) machine to replace a single minimum wage worker, and the machine can't even deliver more than the human??? I don't care how good the technology gets, that's never going to happen. Ditto Uber: it's s not going to buy a fleet of 10,000 self-driving cars, when its business model is based on people using their own cars to make extra cash. That's always going to be cheaper than buying, maintaining, and insuring a highly technical fleet of self-driving vehicles.

It's like people don't do the very bare minimum critical thinking to realize how short-sighted most of these predictions are. I'm not even sure how many people would ride in a self-driving vehicle, given the ease at which they're hacked (whether technologically or with tape on street signs).

More things that the futurists can't predict:

How a self-driving car gets the pizza to your door once it reaches your curb.
How a self-driving car keeps itself from being stolen.
How a self-driving car flags down a motorist to jump its battery.
How a self-driving car changes its own tire.
How a self-driving car gets itself out of a slick spot in the winter.
How a self-driving car presents a friendly face to the customers who appreciate good service.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

San Fran mulls robot tax

What a great way to kill innovation! A preemptive technology tax to fix a "problem" that has yet to materialize. The article lists many reasons why these fears are overblown, including evidence from people actually making the robots, who have firsthand knowledge of what their customers want:

Quote:

"We're working on 160 contracts right now and I can maybe name two that are literally talking about, 'How can I get rid of that particular human position?'"


And more:

Quote:

Tech companies insist their products will largely assist and not displace, workers. Savioke, based in San Jose, makes 3-foot-tall (91 centimeters) robots - called Relay - that deliver room service at hotels where only one person might be on duty at night. This allows the clerk to stay at the front desk, said Tessa Lau, the company's "chief robot whisperer."

"We think of it as our robots taking over tasks but not taking over jobs," Lau says. "If you think of a task as walking down a hall and waiting for an elevator, Relay's really good at that."


That last point (bold text) sums up my position well. Tasks, not jobs. Few jobs can be reduced to a single task, which is why I keep mentioning truck drivers. Just because driving is in your job title doesn't mean that's all you do. Robots will make our jobs easier, allowing us to do more, not less, by freeing us from those tasks that are easily mechanized. We'll be working side-by-side with robots, not replaced by them.
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Remain faithful to the earth, my brothers, with the power of your virtue. Let your gift-giving love and your knowledge serve the meaning of the earth ... Do not let them fly away from earthly things and beat with their wings against eternal walls. Alas, there has always been so much virtue that has flown away. Lead back to the earth the virtue that flew away, as I do-back to the body, back to life, that it may give the earth a meaning, a human meaning. -Nietzsche
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real goal with things like this robot tax is "guaranteed minimum"--everyone will be guaranteed a set minimum income regardless of whether they work or not. Oh, you just graduated high school, you say? Your base salary is $20,000 per year--enjoy.

Once they establish that somewhere the next hurdle will be "income cap"--by law you will be forbidden from making more than x (I have no idea what x might be right now). Anything you make over x will be garnished and given to those at the bottom, the ones making the guaranteed minimum. In their minds, that will "fix" inequality.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I worked with a guy whose sole interest in life was playing games all the time. He lived above the shop and when not working (he did about 12 hours a week) he spent all his time in his room on his phone/game station/computer gaming. It occurred to me that he might actually be the new Renaissance Man. He had zero requirements (except 6 McDonald's and Mcflurry's a day and half an ounce of rolling tobacco), zero aspirations and absolutely no problem with living a life where all of his sensory input came via an internet connection. He was supremely suited to life on a basic universal income, and as long as it provided for his minimal needs he would never require more or be in the least troublesome; a model citizen of the future to come you could say.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could think of worse... Very Happy

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nah AV - I saw your pictures of giraffes; Tom's only exercise was to stand by his front door smoking a roll up playing Pokemon which he did about ten times a day, while not in his room! He did that for months subsisting entirely on a diet of Maccy D's and shit from our hot cabinet. He was grey by the time his parents hooked him back home. Laughing
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha, ok, fair enough, I do like the odd hike etc. :d (Haven't climbed in ages though...getting lazy and unfit.)

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