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Predicting the Holocaust
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Mighara Sovmadhi
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:24 pm    Post subject: Predicting the Holocaust Reply with quote

For various reasons Wink I have been debating whether it would have been possible, at some relatively "early" or preliminary point in time, to have rationally predicted the Holocaust. Let's suppose it was 1931, you're living in Germany, have a copy of Mein Kampf and a bunch of those other pseudophilosophy/pseudoscience books the Nazis used to construct their theory, pay attention to the news, are aware of German's history of anti-Semitism, etc. I think in MK there's something about gassing the Jews though how specific it is IDK. Basically, I think it would have been possible to survey the information in this hypothetical 1931 context and conclude that if Hitler took power (as happened 2 years later of course), there was a strong chance that he would try to oversee a genocide of Jews.

Now, the details of this, of course, would be less forthcoming, I suppose, like, that Poland would be the site of most of the killing might not have been readily evident as of the 1931 context just delineated. Even if there were a reason to look to Poland as such, though, that Auschwitz and Treblinka would have been the major subsites I doubt would have been rationally predictable. (Indeed the initial plan, as carried out in the USSR especially, involved no death camps at all but shootings and gas vans.)
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given that mass killings were almost commonplace in Europe for most of the first half of the twentieth century I would have said that almost certainly some sort of pogrom against the Jews would have been predictable - and more chillingly, even approved of, by a survey of the source material of the day and the pertaining Zeitgeist. Odd to say so though, because to this day there is argument between historians as to whether the Holocaust occured top down (ie. as a planned exercise from day one) or bottom up (just a loose organic development resulting from overzealous interpretation of general ideological principles). (See 'Functionalism Vs Intentionalism' page on Wikipedia.)
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suppose I would favor the top-down idea a little more than the other one, but just because of the bureaucracy involved (the special selection of the Einsatzgruppen and the diversion of the train system in service of the special camps).
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I lean towards "bottom up". The plan initially was to round them all up, take all their valuables, put them into camps, and use them as slave labor but that plan ultimately warped into "just get rid of them all". At this point, though, I concur with Mig--the bureaucracy did it because no individual person stopped to look at the process of what was happening and say "what the hell, guys?". Of course, by 1944 Hitler wasn't really in charge any more--his degenerative nerve disease (probably Parkinson's) and the drugs he was being given would have prevented him from functioning normally much of the time.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now that I think of it... In light of Hashi's point about Hitler's later role in things... It's one of the weird things about truly totalitarian systems, that they have all these bureaucracies but there's also a hyper-mob atmosphere to all of it, so that in another sense what happens, what the systems do, results from mass attitudes and actions. Bottom-up, that is. Yet, then, the total event seems equally bottom-up and top-down; indeed, perhaps something such as the Holocaust could not but happen if it were not for both such conditions being satisfied...?
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the top-down was there--there is evidence in some of Hitler's early speeches (1933-1937) where me actually uses the phrase "final solution"--even though no one at the top ever actually said "let's kill them all". Still, Jews in Germany were vilified as the internal enemy which had caused Germany's downfall (when, in actuality, France's desire to be harshly punitive at Versailles had more to do with Germany's problems during the 1920s); when coupled with the occult overtones (I believe the evidence that many of the early NDSAP members were true believers in the myths of the Ayran race and that they were destined to cast down the other 'mongrel' races) the recipe for disaster was complete.

So it started top-down via the early leaders who had occult links but morphed via bottom-up from "enslave them" to "kill them" because the bureaucracy prevented any individual person from stopping--or even naming--the process.

At some point, there *had* to be at least one person who stopped and said "what the hell is going on here?" even though they were part of what was going on. Of course, that person probably risked being shot for treason for questioning the system but that person still questioned it, even if only mentally. At that point, it became a case of "the avalanche has already begun; it is too late for the pebbles to vote".

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hitler was a very lazy person, rarely working more than a few hours a day. He was surrounded by a coterie of sycophants who hung on his every word and translated even his loosest pondering a into official policy. An example of this was the killing of mental defectives in children's home. A man wrote him a letter asking for permission to euthanase his severely disabled child (of no use to the Reich) and Hitler held up the letter and proclaimed to the surrounding group of officials that "this is the spirit that Germany needs!". Within weeks that simple proclamation had been transformed into an official order circulated to all children's hospitals and home's that it was not helpful to the system to maintain the lives of 'cretins and defectives' who were of no use to themselves or to the State. This was then taken as a carte blanche to euthanase said individuals by overzealous administrations within the institutions. This was duly done and the deaths recorded as resulting from some bland cause that could not be challenged by the families of the murdered. Such was how the system chaotically operated.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could easily make an argument for something like that (the euthanasia of the severely disabled) in some cases. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Antisemitism and judeophobia permeated generations of German Jewish people. It manifested in discrimination, fear and violence.

In 1918, 1923 and 1924 mobs gathered to terrorise Jewish German citizens, beating, wounding and killing Jews. That was an escalation the Nazis later capitalised on. These and similar Antisemitic discriminatory practices were essentially protected under the Weimar Republic.


Antisemites in the Weimar Republic turned to National Socialism as it offered them an outlet for their antisemitism. In 1922 Gustav Seifert then leader of the Nazi party, at a rally blamed the Jews for all of Germanys ills. They formed their party platform on antisemitism including denying them rights and legal process. Anthropologically jews were distinguished from their Caucasian neighbours from a much earlier period. This I think led to the justification for treating Jews as untermenchen. However thats spelled 😂

But Hitler was a Narcissistic self promoter. And like many NSPs had very little substance, skill, intelligence, particularly original thinking of his own to bring to the table. He was a master manipulator as most narcissists are.

He may have claimed Mein Kampf and was committed to the ideas therein but they were not his ehhem .. genius. As many narcissists do, Hitler gathered SMEs around him, used their expertise to realise the NAZI agenda. And of course take credit for Nazi .. accomplishments.

In my opinion the Holocaust was an progressive culmination of years and generations of judeophobia and antisemitism.

The persecution of the Jews and the killing of the Jews was already in action and had a long history of precedents.

To my mind the Holocaust was already in the making. The writing was on the wall. It was guided by the top down but fully enabled because it was embraced from the bottom up.

Before Hitler came into power street mobs were already Participating in the legacy of violence and death.

As an individual German you may not have liked it, you may have feared the growing violence of antisemitism but it would be highly unlikely that you were unaware of its rise and even its potential .

Some claim not to have known, perhaps for some it was so. But particularly if you lived in urban Germany from 1918 - 1838 you surely knew of the rise in antisemitic violence, and deaths.

When antisemitic laws were introduced you had to deduce no good would come of this. Really the German people are not stupid. LOL like the American people and Trump. There are modest parallels. 😂

But is it not interesting, watching the turn of the tide? If the lessons of history are ignored are we not doomed to repeat them.

So what of the Holocaust, the final solution. Were there indicators. Could it be predicted.

Im saying yes. An intelligent human possessed of the power of thought and observing the multitudinous antisemitic occurrences could surmise and for some take reward in the removal and of extermination of the Jews. They werent human, after all the Jews were nothing like us of the fatherland. These actions all occurred during the Weimar Republic period, which proceeded Hitler.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good post Skyweir. Worth noting in addition that the anti-Semitism within Germany during the early 20C. chimes with the prevailing atmosphere across the whole of Europe during the same period. The notorious Protocols were spawned early in the century (a complete fabrication of course, but still kept by the bedside of Henry Ford decades later notwithstanding, such was their impact) and it is claimed that the process that ended in the Holocaust can be traced back to a single letter written by I forget who - an army officer I think - claiming a Jewish conspiracy for world domination back in the 1890s.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Awww... thank you Pete. 💕
Yes antisemtism has been around for centuries. I mean look how Jews were treated in Russia. subject to pogroms, trade restrictions, land ownership, restricted to the Pale etc. Hence the old saying .. beyond the pale 😏

But that is all, Im sure a given. My interest is in deniers and unsubstantiated revisionists. You know, those that assert things like the Holocaust never happened.

Well theres another fringe element that claim the Holocaust could not have been foreseen. Now I acknowledge that these two views are vastly different .
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jews weren't the only ones in the Holocaust. Gypsies were killed by the hundreds of thousands.

I felt we deserved a mention.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You a gipsy Darth Wink

But yes you're absolutely right
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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
Hitler was a very lazy person, rarely working more than a few hours a day. He was surrounded by a coterie of sycophants who hung on his every word and translated even his loosest pondering a into official policy.


On the other hand, Himmler was a very well organized person. He knew what tasks to entrust to who. A deadly skill when it came to organizing the machinery of the Holocaust.
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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Absolutely..

Its why Himler was a key player .. why Speir was his architect.. designing and constructing the physical manifestations of his Nazi ideology .why he chose Dunitz, Goring, etc because they were experts in their field which successes Hitler could leverage from.
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PostPosted: Fri May 11, 2018 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just finished watching "Hitler's Inner Circle," a 10-part series on Netflix. I highly recommend it. I have a greater understanding of the key players, their motivations and how they each played a role in the WWII and The Holocaust.
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PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Awesome recommend
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PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've watched a few of those. They are well done.
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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a rather morbid obsession with this period in history .. the period of the world wars. I want to understand how humans became compliant, permissive, and for some obsessive with Nazi ideology.

Of course the First World War is intriguing.. in to me a worse way .. the clash of the old methods of battle and the the industrial way of doing battle.
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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm certain that the KIND of program it was was reasonably simple to predict.
The scale of it, though...I'm not sure that could have been predicted. People are very, very bad at envisioning horrors of that kind [for no good reason...there IS history/knowledge of such.
Which connects, if you follow it, to the quote I like: "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it, those who do learn history do it to us on purpose."

H. mentioned a point I think is too often overlooked...the extremity of punishment meted out to Germany for WW1 was at LEAST proximate cause, and perhaps primary cause in fact for Hitler/WW2.

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