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Official 2020 Presidential Prognostication Thread
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they run Sanders or Biden they will lose for sure. And I think they know that. The one I see as the wildcard here is Kamala Harris. We will see if that plays out. Female, black (PoC), and she is willing to duke it out with the other candidates.

Lets see how it goes as we weed out the non-contenders.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SB, People of Color (POC) is offensive. We prefer to call them "rainbow people." Rainbow is more inclusive as it includes sexual orientation and gender identity too.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoulBiter wrote:
Lets see how it goes as we weed out the non-contenders.


The non-contenders are everyone except Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren. The other 16 wannabes should just bow out now.

edit/add: No, scratch that--they should stay in to keep the field in chaos.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marianne Williamson stated that reparations could be anywhere from $200 billion to $500 billion. Again, I must point out serveral things about reparations which no one is ready to answer:

* how do we prove who is or is not the descendant of slaves? Not every black person in the United States is descended from slaves.

* what happens if a white person is determined to be the descendant of a slave?

* do the famlies of people who arrived after Emancipation have to pay?

* do the descendant of First Nations have to pay?

* do the descendants of Chinese railroad workers have to pay?

* and, once reparations are paid no one can ever bring up slavery as a guilt-based leverage point ever again.

Meanwhile, Warren floated the idea of decriminalizing border crossings. This would be within the power of Congress to enact relatively quickly, if they wanted to. Still....not every person crossing the border is coming over here to pick up day jobs or live here long term.

For the most parts, the also-rans didn't get any juicy one-liners for the campaign trail. Pretty boring stuff, for the most part--mostly just Progressives ripping into moderates for being moderate and moderates ripping into Progressives for being too far out of the mainstream.

edit/add: Fox brought up a very good point--you didn't hear anyone mention the name "Mueller" at all at last night's debate. I doubt you will hear it tonight, either--they all want to forget that chapter.

edit/add: oh my. That awkward moment when Kamala Harris received a $5,000 donation from Donald Trump. Of course, there were two other subsequent donations, as well--another $1,000 in 2013 and then $2,000 in 2014. Sen. Harris considers Trump to be "vile" these days, but he apparently wasn't so vile when she was depositing his checks.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apparently there were two or three instances of Democrats from last night's debate where they were attacking Obama--Obama!--as a means to attack Biden. They were referencing the facts--all verified as true--that more immigrants died crossing the border during Obama's second term than have during Trump's, that some children were sexually assaulted in detention centers during Obama's Administration, and that he deported more people than Trump has.

Also, strangely enough, it seems now that "defending Obamacare", as Biden was doing, is now "a Republican talking point". Seriously? Republicans hate the ACA--how can defending it be one of their talking points?

Apparently, now that Obama is no longer a figure he is fair game. Hungry animals in the wild will often turn on each other...and Democrats are very hungry for a win right now.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

Pro-life Democrats reimagine future of their movement, party [In-Depth]

Quote:

A billboard sponsored by Progress Michigan protests the presence of the Democrats for Life of America in East Lansing, Michigan, on July 27. Kristen Day, executive director of Democrats for Life of America, said she invited the group to learn more about pro-life Democrats and what they really believe. (Don Clemmer)


East Lansing, Mich. -- The party activists gathered in East Lansing for the national conference of the Democrats for Life of America got a hint at the obstacles they face even before their meeting. Less than half a mile from the convention center hosting the July 26-28 gathering, a billboard sponsored by Progress Michigan at a busy intersection implored, "Go home, Dems for Life!"

"On the national level, it's pretty scary," Kristen Day, executive director of Democrats for Life of America conceded, regarding the direction of her party among those who self-identify as pro-life. She added, "It may not feel like there's a lot of room at the top there, but from my perspective, I just see way more interest ... and a lot more on the ground, at the grassroots level, of people unhappy with what the national level is doing on this issue."

Despite the conference's comprising just over 60 or so attendees, Democrats for Life of America reported that the conference produced three of four new state chapters for the organization, adding to about a dozen with good infrastructure and others in earlier stages. The Michigan chapter, which hosted the gathering, is itself relatively new.

The full Bernardin

The program for the conference unfolded under the banner of "Pro-Life for the Whole Life" and featured presentations on issues including the role of racism in abortion; accompaniment of women in crisis pregnancies; environmental degradation and health; immigration; physician-assisted suicide; and advance directives.

"Cardinal Bernardin was on the right track," said Robert Anderson, an elder law attorney and board member of Michigan Democrats for Life, referencing the range of issues addressed by the late Chicago Cardinal Joseph Bernardin, who first articulated the "seamless garment" consistent life ethic for Catholics.

"No matter whether you're talking about babies who are put in cages or babies who are in the womb, or elderly who are put at risk of being forced into euthanasia ... we're talking about vulnerable people who are powerless and who are being taken advantage by more powerful people."

[...]

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pro-life Democrats need to wake up and smell the coffee--if they don't start toeing the pro-choice line they will be turned on more viciously than the hopeful were turning on Obama the other night. Pro-life Democrats really should just join either the Republican or Libertarian Parties where their view will find a better fit and a more welcoming home.

The Progressives are taking over the Democrat Party. Those who do not fully believe in the Progressive, "Democratic Socialist" worldview will be cast out.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds good to me. I might just register with the Democratic Party again if that actually happened. Sadly, it probably won't. It will keep moving right, just slowly enough to stay left of Republicans.

Curious, though, how do you see pro-life Democrats fitting with Libertarians? According to their platform: "Recognizing that abortion is a sensitive issue and that people can hold good-faith views on all sides, we believe that government should be kept out of the matter, leaving the question to each person for their conscientious consideration."
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[Syl] wrote:
Sounds good to me. I might just register with the Democratic Party again if that actually happened. Sadly, it probably won't. It will keep moving right, just slowly enough to stay left of Republicans.


Good news for you. The Democratic Party is moving further and further left.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-the-democrats-turn-leftward-means-for-the-partys-chances-in-2020

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/6/22/17490410/democratic-party-sanders-left-liberal-interparty-fights-sanders-socialism-clintonism
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The bands are just too broad...each party should split in 3...left, centrist and right-wing versions. Very Happy

Maybe then the libertarians would have a shot.

--A
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[Syl] wrote:
Curious, though, how do you see pro-life Democrats fitting with Libertarians? According to their platform: "Recognizing that abortion is a sensitive issue and that people can hold good-faith views on all sides, we believe that government should be kept out of the matter, leaving the question to each person for their conscientious consideration."


That statement supports both pro-life and pro-choice positions. The Libertarians do not try to force people to believe one way or the other like the two major parties do.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, and Bernard Sanders have all attended services at a church in Las Vegas who preaches that "being gay is enough to send you to Hell". According to Rev. Robert E. Fowler Sr., pastor of Victory Missionary Baptist Church,

Quote:
Whether you commit adultery, whether you commit fornication, whether you're a child molester, you gossip, you lie, you cheat on your taxes, you don't pay your tithes, things of that nature--all of that is wrapped together as sin, along with homosexuality. And so at our church, we don't believe that there's any one sin that's greater than anything else.


He also recently noted that

Quote:
homosexuality, adultery, fornication, those are all sexual sins addressed in scripture


You cannot pander both the LBGT vote and the evangelical vote--they will have to choose one group or the other.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The libs support religiously conservative Muslims (who are anti-gay) while at the same time supporting the gays. Can't have it both ways!
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberals don't protest in places like Riyadh and Beijing--aside from the fact that they don't live thee, of course--because they know that they would be bounced into jail relatively quickly...presuming that they don't get disappeared. They enjoy the protections and freedoms the United States offers even while they argue how racist and xenophobic the country is and they want nothing more than to turn it into the CCCP.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biden wants to make certain everyone knows that he is not mentally competent to be POTUS. He claims that he met with the survivors of the Parkland School shooting while he was Vice President. Parkaland happend in 2018--Biden had been out of office for more than a year.

Go home, Joe. You're done.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Houston Chronicle, which wholeheartedly supported Robert Francis during his 2016 campaign against Ted (Rafael) Cruz, is now urging him to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination and come home, claiming that Texas needs him. No, we don't...but it would still be a good idea for him to drop out now.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hickenlooper is now out of the running. It won't be long before the other also-rans will start dropping like flies.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to Vox (I use Vox only because most recent I could find candidates who have made next debate, those who are likely to make next debate and those who are struggling to make it.

https://www.vox.com/2019/8/8/20758519/democratic-debate-qualification-polls-candidates-yang-gabbard

Summarizing those who are close:
Julian Castro
Tom Seyer
Tulsi Gabbard

Uphill climb:
Kristen Gillibrand
John Hickenlooper (as Hashi reported - already took himself out of running)
Jay Inslee
Steve Bullock
Michal Bennet
Marianne Williamson Sam's note: (author---seriously???)
Bill de Blasio
John Delaney
Tim Ryan
Seth Moulton
Wayne Messam
Joe Sestak Sam's note: anyone else mind jump to Sleestak the creatures of Land of Lost when reading that name---No? ok maybe just me Rolling Eyes

As Hashi alludes - anyone who doesn't make this next debate is very likely to start ending campaigns
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

samrw3 wrote:
Uphill climb:
Marianne Williamson Sam's note: (author---seriously???)
Joe Sestak Sam's note: anyone else mind jump to Sleestak the creatures of Land of Lost when reading that name---No? ok maybe just me Rolling Eyes



Yes, seriously. Of course, only Ms. Williamson is taking her candidacy seriously.

I didn't before, but from now on he is officially to be known as "Joe Sleestak".


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well THIS is headed for the Supreme Court. However I think the electors can vote how they wish. I dont know if that is a good approach but I think its Constitutional.

Quote:
A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday evening that Colorados presidential electors do not have to back the candidate who wins the states popular vote.


Quote:
The appeals court ruled that the Constitution provides presidential electors the right to cast a vote for president and vice president with discretion. And the state does not possess countervailing authority to remove an elector and to cancel his vote in response to the exercise of that Constitutional right.


The case before the appeals court revolved around a dispute over the decision of then Secretary of State Wayne Williams to order the three electors to back Clinton.

Michael Baca, one of the electors, declined, instead opting to back then Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) as part of an attempt to deny Donald Trump a victory. He was later removed and replaced with another elector who voted for Clinton. The two other electors also wanted to vote for Kasich but chose to vote for Clinton instead of being replaced.
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