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How's everyone enjoying their "Global Warming"?
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How do you like the Global Warming so far?
This sucks like all get out!!!!!!!!!
44%
 44%  [ 13 ]
Mildly annoying
13%
 13%  [ 4 ]
Who cares, it's only weather
24%
 24%  [ 7 ]
This is kinda okay
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Man I love this S**t, bring it on!!!!!!!!
17%
 17%  [ 5 ]
Total Votes : 29

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
That is not the first time people have suggested seeding particulate matter into the statosphere to reduce sunlight intensity. Every time I see that mentioned I immediately think "but what of the unintended consequences"?


Hashi,

If memory serves, a giant volcano did that about a month ago in Russia (end of August). Particulates everywhere. We aren't in charge of them, of course, natural as they are. But as this occurs, shouldn't we see some adjustments?
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There was a larger one a few years ago that had a similar effect. Technically, we should see some short-term effects from a sufficiently large volcanic eruption but those are generally short-lived. Krakatoa literally made the moon have a bluish hue for several months after its eruption and this effect was notable all over the world and it made the winters in Northern Europe colder than normal for three successive years.

There are people who try to downplay the effect volcanos have but the empirical evidence says otherwise--even one sufficiently large volcanic eruption can have immediate and noticable effects. Human activity isn't as important as we are often told that it is when only one volcano can outdo us.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, it's just that huge volcanic eruptions can have a greater short-term impact that is, if large enough, immediately noticeable.

It's like if the "frog in boiling water" thing was true... Very Happy

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Decades of left-leaning environmental policies in California are the primary cause of the current round of fires that State is experiencing. State policy prevents PG&E from trimming trees or clearing underbrush from near power lines or transformers, so when the wind picks up the energized lines easily ignite the dry plant material. This is what happens when you put "protecting the environment" ahead of "public safety" or "delivering safe electrical power to customers". No other State has this problem because no other State has gone overboard like California has.

The governor there is still blaming PG&E for being "greedy" and trying to blame the fires on them. He is also upset about them engaging in rolling blackouts in an attempt to reduce the number of fires. How about this, California--why don't you roll back all those environmental laws?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real problem is actually decades of intensive almond cultivation has destroyed the water-table leading (in part) to the creation of conditions under which live wires can ignite the surrounding vegetation. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take 4 litres of water to produce 1 almond. California supplies 80% of the worlds almonds.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Exactly. For all its preaching and assumption of the moral high ground re the environment, the reality is that California is just full of shit and they keep pursuing the wrong goals.

My psychotic ex is from California; I don't care if it burns.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They're pursuing the capitalist goal of making as much money as possible. Very Happy Just like most people. Devil take the hindmost. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Time magazine has an article about how asthma inhalers are contributing to climate change.

That's right--the planet is important than you, so if you have asthma then fuck you and die, you planet-hater.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "no reproduction" rhetoric has already begun. I expect there to be a push for some sort of soft eugenic policy in the EU within a decade.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My advice to population control people is "you first".
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
My advice to population control people is "you first."

Yes, I edited your punctuation. I'm occasionally OCD that way.

Tragedy of the commons on a global scale. Too many self-actors chasing their own advantage, but undermining the good of all...including themselves.

Yes, I understand the impulse of those who believe their breed of human is being minimized to say "I will reproduce all I can to avoid my breed being diluted", but when I hear that from those who also decry "identity politics", there is some cognitive dissonance.

I'd like to learn more about Nihilo's citation of "no reproduction" rhetoric. If anyone is really spouting that, they're seriously misguided. "The Humans must continue..." Still, population density and distribution are valid factors in a planetwide effort to mitigate/stabilize climate and sustainability issues.

To some extent, do we not all need to pull together to best prevail over the challenges we face? Those challenges aren't going to discriminate between us, but threaten us all equally.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Savor Dam wrote:
Yes, I edited your punctuation. I'm occasionally OCD that way.


No worries--trying to post here while typing on my phone is non-ideal.

I already did my part towards reducing population back when I was 25--a non-reversible vasectomy.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Savor Dam wrote:
Still, population density and distribution are valid factors in a planetwide effort to mitigate/stabilize climate and sustainability issues.

To some extent, do we not all need to pull together to best prevail over the challenges we face? Those challenges aren't going to discriminate between us, but threaten us all equally.
I thought we've been over this. Global population is stabilizing on its own already.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/234

Not according to U.N. projections
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Savor Dam wrote:
I'd like to learn more about Nihilo's citation of "no reproduction" rhetoric. If anyone is really spouting that, they're seriously misguided. "The Humans must continue..." Still, population density and distribution are valid factors in a planetwide effort to mitigate/stabilize climate and sustainability issues.


My pleasure.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/234

Not according to U.N. projections
The UN is a propaganda machine with the sole purpose of taking down American superiority and transferring its wealth to poor countries.

Quote:
The great defining event of the 21st century - one of the great defining events in human history - will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end. We do not face the challenge of a population bomb, so rampant in the popular imagination, but of a population bust - a relentless, generation-after-generation culling of the human herd. Nothing like this has ever happened before.

If you find this news shocking, that's not surprising. The United Nations forecasts that our population will grow from 7 billion to 11 billion in this century before leveling off after 2100. But an increasing number of demographers around the world believe the UN estimates are far too high. More likely, they say, the planet's population will peak at around 9 billion sometime between 2040 and 2060 and then start to decline. By the end of this century, we could be back to where we are right now and steadily growing fewer.

Populations are already declining in about two dozen states around the world; by 2050, that number will have climbed to three dozen. Some of the richest places on earth are shedding people every year: Japan, Korea, Spain, Italy, much of Eastern Europe. "We are a dying country," lamented Beatrice Lorenzin, Italy's health minister, in 2015.

But this isn't the big news. The big news is that the largest developing nations are also about to grow smaller as their own fertility rates come down. China will begin losing people in a few years. By the middle of this century, Brazil and Indonesia will follow suit. Even India, soon to become the most populous nation on earth, will see its numbers stabilize in about a generation and then start to decline. Fertility rates remain sky-high in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East. Even here, though, things are changing as young women obtain access to education and birth control. Africa is likely to end its unchecked baby boom much sooner than the UN's demographers think.

Why is the UN's prediction wrong? According to Wolfgang Lutz, of the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the reason, in a word, is education. "The brain is the most important reproductive organ," he asserts. Once a woman receives enough information and autonomy to make an informed and self-directed choice about when to have children and how many to have, she immediately has fewer of them and has them later. "Once a woman is socialized to have an education and a career, she is socialized to have a smaller family," he explains. "There's no going back." Lutz and his fellow demographers at Vienna's International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) believe that advancing education in developing countries, brought about by increasing urbanization, should be factored into future population projections, which the UN doesn't do. Using those factors, the IIASA predicts a stabilizing population by midcentury, followed by a decline. Lutz believes the human population will be shrinking as early as 2060.

His is hardly a lone voice. Jorgen Randers is a Norwegian academic who co-authored The Limits to Growth, which predicted that global population would reach unsustainable levels by 2100. But since publishing the book, he has changed his mind. "The world population will never reach 9 billion people," he now believes. "It will peak at 8 billion in 2040 and then decline." He attributes the unexpected drop to women in developing countries moving into urban slums. "And in an urban slum, it does not make sense to have a large family."

The Economist is also skeptical of the UN estimates: Previous projections, it observed in a 2014 analysis, failed to forecast "the spectacular declines in fertility in Bangladesh or Iran since 1980 (in both countries, from roughly six children per woman to about two now). At the moment, Africa is the source of much new population growth and the authors assume that fertility rates will continue to fall more slowly there than they did in Asia and Latin America. But no one can be sure."


link

The UN has been wrong in the past about its population projections (not to mention its global warming projections). It has a horrible track record predicting the future. And in this case, the reason for its failure is well known. It is not taking into account change. Our global society is changing rapidly. Everywhere, women are having fewer children as they attain more education and higher standards of living. The only reason for the UN to ignore this fact and assume that fertility rates today will be the same 80 years from now is that it has something to gain by pushing this false projection.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok so cheers ... read that, googled the authors, for their credentials in environmental science ... which I could not find. Ibbitson has degree in Journalism, Canadian History & Politics, and is a recipient of an award for writing childrens books. All I could find on Bricker is that he works on polling, quantitative research methods and public opinion research.

All good.

Then I read a few reviews of Empty Planet: Preparing For The Global Population Decline.

Quote:
Empty Planet moves confidently from an optimistic premise to unwarranted conclusions.

...

A report for Deutsche Bank in 2013 by economist Sanjeev Sanyal, titled "Predictions of a Rogue Demographer" argued that: "Urbanisation is the strongest contraceptive" and so "the world's overall fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025" causing population to peak around 2055 just above 8.7 billion.2 His forecast for 2100, at 8 billion, is slightly higher than Empty Planet anticipates.


From part 2

Quote:
Nationally aggregated birth rates do not track variation between groups within a population, and small differences (a fraction of a child) can, over time, change a national population's composition, leading to more births than forecast.


And damningly
Quote:
Bricker and Ibbitson also claim that "it's hard to innovate when your society is old" (page 83), and ludicrously argue that "the Walkman [1979] represented the peak of Japanese creativity _ And it's been mostly downhill ever since" (page 79). To the contrary, Japan continues to innovate technologically.

It also has an opportunity to enhance wellbeing through a "depopulation dividend".[7] Most countries can improve welfare and prosperity through population shrinkage.


And curiously your cited authors claim the US should triple migration _ to facilitate population growth.

Quote:
"The United States could and should, for its own good, be taking in far more than the one million people who arrive annually" so they advise tripling that to three million new immigrants every year.


But I guess you wouldnt subscribe to Ibbitson and Bricker on that, no?

Quote:
This would grow the USA to "450 million in 2100 _ closing in on a much-diminished China _ demographically the American advantage is decisive" (pages 188-9). Immigration added to births "will secure the American hegemony" (page 178), so there is "no reason to believe the twenty-first century will not belong to America" (page 234). However, if consumption in the USA stayed at 8.4 gHa per person,[3] those 450 million Americans would use 3,780 million gHa, exceeding national biocapacity, and demanding 31% of global biocapacity.


mmm... and not regarded as a particularly rigorous scientific or factual study ... a few minor errors that you would not expect if a scholarly work

Quote:
Empty Planet has minor errors, for example regarding the Philippines' TFR (Total Fertility Rate) they claim: "Today it's three, and falling at a rate of about half a baby every five years" (page 52), in the present tense. However, Figure 3 using UN DESA data shows that 0.5 rate of decline belonged to the period 1970-85, not the present. They also write that the Philippines' total population "is expected to increase from its current level of 101 million to 142 million by 2045, and will then probably start to decline" (page 53). For this they cite a government report, but its first paragraph forecasts that, while the growth rate will slow, population in 2040-45 will be growing at +0.67% annually, and the report's forecast ends at 2045.[11] The IIASA Medium projection has the Philippines' population peak around 2075.[12]


Reviewed by John McKeown (PhD Liverpool, M.Sc. UWE Bristol).

Quote:


Empty Planet provides a lively Canadian perspective on global demography, which is useful as a discussion starter. The authors rightly perceive that "the current population is straining the environment, contributing to species extinction and global warming," and they wisely see that a global population of "eight billion" is "more than enough" (page 32). Bricker and Ibbitson acknowledge that overfishing and pollution harm marine species and their environment, and that "reducing the size of the human population is the best prescription for protecting the seas" (page 229). They also see that the "solution to producing less carbon dioxide might ultimately be producing fewer humans" (page 230). Unfortunately, their ambitions for GDP growth often overwhelm their genuine concern for life on earth.


Another
Quote:
A more realistic forecast [than that asserted by Ibbitson & Bricker] would emphasize contingency-future population paths depend on yet-to-be enacted policies and family planning decisions. Continuing population growth is taking us from three billion people in 1960 to a UN projection of 10 billion by 2055. The title Empty Planet might sell books, but Overpopulated Planet seems closer to reality.


And
Quote:
If current world fertility rates persisted unchanged, and the planet could handle such growth, the result would be a population of 24 billion by 2100. The UN's 11.2 billion scenario in 2100 (compared to 7.8 billion now) remains contingent on fertility rates falling significantly in countries where high fertility rates have been persistent so far. A less optimistic scenario has low-fertility groups dying out and high-fertility groups inheriting an overpopulated, damaged planet.

The authors focus their discussion on fears of slower economic growth (fewer consumers buying fewer sofas and refrigerators) and the burdens of supporting higher percentages of older people. Yet plenty of data show that fewer numbers offer our best chances for universal prosperity. An economy can actually get smaller with a falling population, even while allowing individuals to enjoy higher incomes and quality of life. As population falls, land per capita increases, commodity prices decline, and damage to the planet decreases.



https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/overpopulation-project.com/review-of-empty-planet-the-shock-of-global-population-decline-by-darrell-bricker-and-john-ibbitson-part-1/amp/


[url] https://steadystate.org/book-review-empty-planet-the-shock-of-global-population-decline/[/url]
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sky, demographics isn't environmental science. It may impact the environment, but so do cars. However, you wouldn't look at the environmental science credentials of people predicting future number of cars.

This is the province of statisticians. You don't like my authors? Fine, there are 100s more where they came from. This realization is a growing trend among statisticians.

Did you check the environmental science credentials of the authors of the UN prediction? Or just believe them on faith? Have you read their studies? I seem to remember someone saying you can't comment on something without reading it first.
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Meaning is created internally by each individual in each specific life: any attempt at *meaning* which relies on some kind of external superstructure (God, Satan, the Creator, the Worm, whatever) for its substance misses the point (I mean the point of my story). -SRD

Remain faithful to the earth, my brothers, with the power of your virtue. Let your gift-giving love and your knowledge serve the meaning of the earth ... Do not let them fly away from earthly things and beat with their wings against eternal walls. Alas, there has always been so much virtue that has flown away. Lead back to the earth the virtue that flew away, as I do-back to the body, back to life, that it may give the earth a meaning, a human meaning. -Nietzsche
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