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Official 2020 Presidential Prognostication Thread
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like they're imploding first. Very Happy

I wonder...perhaps Trump will do what he promised and change the face of politics forever. Very Happy For good or ill of course would have to be seen. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well maybe we're in the 21st century American Antebellum period...
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Time to trade Mitt Romney for Tulsi Gabbard
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although they both took a political risk by voting the way they did, Tulsi took a bigger risk because she is still actively campaigning while Romney is safely in office for 4 more years...unless the voters in Utah recall him, which I doubt will happen. That being said, I would glady trade Romney for Gabbard.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dems are retarded. Apparently, simple video edits are considered "doctoring" the videos in order to mislead. They are raising hell because Trump posted a video with scenes from the SOTU where he talked about the Tuskegee airman and the like with Nancy Pelosi ripping the speech to shreds juxtaposed after each scene.

Sorry, how is that misleading? It's what you did, Nancy Pelosi. Maybe you should have thought about the optics a little bit before you acted on an impulse. Part of the reason Trump had all those guests was to make the Dems look awful when they acted like a horse's ass (which was inevitably going to happen).

You literally FROWNED when Trump was talking about proud moments of the United States' history. You claim that you don't hate America, but you damn sure act like it. You sneer and jeer at us regular, everyday Americans who weren't born with silver spoons. You haughtily refer to our homes as "flyover" states that are too insignificant to pay attention to, unless we so happen to be a swing state in an election, then you pay attention to us.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Democrats apparently don't understand meme videos.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Democrats don't understand that Nancy
Made a campaign video for them.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sanders won New Hampshire, Biden did not even break double digits--after having already left New Hampshire before the polls opened, heading down to South Carolina--and Andrew Yang has become the latest quitter. Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Warren each had decent results.

Bloomberg doesn't care about the results because he is buying his way into the convention. Oh, and he also thinks that white people are stopped by the police too much while minorities aren't stopped enough. No, it's true--he said it. Look it up for yourself. This is on top of the audio from his speech back in 2015 where he claimed that 95% of all murders are committed by minority males in the 16 - 25 age range. In that speech he also said that when a murder happens police can usually just photocopy the description of the suspect from the last murder case and go with that. All of that and yet Democrats are still willing to vote for him because....New York? *shrug*

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well he's not entirely wrong that minority males commit a disproportionate amount of violent crime despite being a small portion (far less than 13% of total US population for young African-American males 16-25 years of age). FBI Table 43. It's fact.







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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well as Hashi mentioned Biden loses big again in New Hampshire.

What surprises me (and a lot of other people) is that he is losing to people like Buttigieg, Klobucher and Warren! I bet you most people did not even have Buttigieg and Klobucher on their radar a year ago.

The real tests are coming up in Nevada and South Carolina and the real big one Super Tuesday 3/3 with California 416 and Texas 228 as two huge delegate potentials. Then medium states such as Colorado 67, Massachusetts 91, Minnesota 75, North Carolina 110, Tennessee 64, Virginia 99. Super Tuesday potential delegates 1,306.

You will see many remaining candidates drop out of race after Super Tuesday.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

samrw3 wrote:
Sam's predictions by candidate:

Michael Bennet - drops out after Iowa and before New Hampshire - Wrong he dropped after New Hampshire on 2/11

Joe Biden - stays in until the end -- right so far but is imploding has serious potential of not making it to the end

Michael Bloomberg - will run late in campaign possibly even to the end hoping for brokered convention -- right so far and possibility of borkered convention rises after every state

Pete Buttgieg- will run late in campaign will drop out late March -- right so far

John Delaney - ended campaign today (or last night not sure to busy to look or care) -- will remove him next time I review

Tulsi Gabbard - effectively ends campaign after Iowa but does not officially end campaign until after Nevada and before South Carolina -- I am still predicting her to end before Super Tuesday

Amy Klobucher - ends campaign after Super Tuesday 3/3 (so probably by 3/7) -- right so far

Deval Patrick - huh? didn't even know he was still in race - anyways - drops out after Iowa and before New Hampshire -- Wrong ends after New Hampshire on 2/12

Bernie Sanders - stays in until the end - - right so far

Tom Steyer - is stubborn and ends campaign after Super Tuesday so probably by 3/5 - but Should end campaign after Iowa. --- right so far

Elizabeth Warren - stays in until the end unless she sees little chance of winning and pulls out in later months to give Biden clearer victory over Sanders ---right so far although she is not performing as well as expected so may exit later to give whoever top runner is (strong possibility not Biden now) room to beat Sanders.

Andrew Yang - is stubborn and does not exit until after Super Tuesday so probably by 3/5 - but should end campaign after Iowa. --- Wrong exits after New Hampshire 2/11. I just assumed he would wait until Super Tuesday hoping for a good California vote.

So...lets see how close I get.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

samrw3 wrote:
possibility of borkered convention rises after every state


That is actually a good depiction of what will happen if the convention is brokered--it becomes borkered.

Most of your predictions are either on target or are close--that's good foresight.

edit/add: the chair of the Iowa Democrat Party just resigned while they are quietly recaucusing.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Disproportionate is not the same as majority.

Also, doubt figures are controlled for other factors like poverty, employment, etc etc. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
samrw3 wrote:
possibility of borkered convention rises after every state


[color=green]That is actually a good depiction of what will happen if the convention is brokered--it becomes borkered.



Lol oops oh well Shocked
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I like the new word and I think you should own it.

Moderate Democrats and many down-ticket Democrats in various States are--apparently--highly concerned that a Sanders nomination could hurt their own chances at being re-elected. The concern is that they will all be painted with the "Democratic Socialist" label if he comes out on top.

I cannot yet tell if this is real or conservative sources trying to make it real because the people apparently speaking their concerns are doing so anonymously, which is always suspect. It is plausible, I have to admit--the DNC still doesn't like Sanders and I am not sure they can afford to sell out to Bloomberg, which is exactly how the anti-1% crowd will see it.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bloomberg isn't even coming in top 5 in the state primaries, so that's exactly what it would be.

I love how Vanity Fair and other liberal-biased sites are claiming that there are new polls showing Trump getting his ass kicked by every current Dem contender, but I think they are living in a fantasy world if they believe that the current contenders are strong enough to win against Trump.

Let's not forget that Trump's base (the entire GOP rank-and-file) is extremely energized by all the Democrat obfuscation (impeachment, Mueller, etc.) with record-breaking incumbent primaries in Iowa and NH whereas the Dems have low/average turnout like they did in 2016.

THAT IS NOT A SIGN OF WINNING, DEMOCRATS.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not worried about Trump winning the election. I believe it is highly likely that he will. However, I am worried about the Senate and the House. We need to keep the Senate and retake the House, for the good of the country.

If Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer care at all about the country, they will retire. They are tearing the country apart with talks of "second impeachment."

Moderate Democrats should honestly consider switching parties at this point. The lunatic Progs and Socialists have ruined the party. There's good potential for the GOP to become the "Centrist Party" at this point.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
Moderate Democrats should honestly consider switching parties at this point. The lunatic Progs and Socialists have ruined the party. There's good potential for the GOP to become the "Centrist Party" at this point.
Well, solely conceptually speaking, that'd be a good idea...

Unfortunately, the way that politics has gone - and in much more accelerated fashion over the last 30 some years - doesn't particularly allow for centrism (though God alone knows why).

Instead, those on ***both*** sides seem to have decided that the only way to win share of hearts and minds is to become ever more extreme. Remember my "pantomime politics" phrase? It's here to stay, sadly.

What seems to be believed by our politicos is that the electorate as a whole is so damn thick that it can only be presented with extremes - so white hats vs black hats, or good vs evil. Hence our politicos make sure that they're pushing as extreme an agenda and message as possible - because hey, the electorate is far too moronic to deal with and distinguish between any centre-ground subtleties. Nope, things HAVE to be painted solely in primary colours. Rolling Eyes

So our politicos are either crushingly stupid themselves or incredibly contemptuous to think in such a way. And this is why so many people vote in spite of the messaging and narrative being spewed out by their preferred party.

It's a bit depressing, really
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
ur-Nanothnir wrote:
Moderate Democrats should honestly consider switching parties at this point. The lunatic Progs and Socialists have ruined the party. There's good potential for the GOP to become the "Centrist Party" at this point.
Well, solely conceptually speaking, that'd be a good idea...

Unfortunately, the way that politics has gone - and in much more accelerated fashion over the last 30 some years - doesn't particularly allow for centrism (though God alone knows why).

Instead, those on ***both*** sides seem to have decided that the only way to win share of hearts and minds is to become ever more extreme. Remember my "pantomime politics" phrase? It's here to stay, sadly.

What seems to be believed by our politicos is that the electorate as a whole is so damn thick that it can only be presented with extremes - so white hats vs black hats, or good vs evil. Hence our politicos make sure that they're pushing as extreme an agenda and message as possible - because hey, the electorate is far too moronic to deal with and distinguish between any centre-ground subtleties. Nope, things HAVE to be painted solely in primary colours. Rolling Eyes

So our politicos are either crushingly stupid themselves or incredibly contemptuous to think in such a way. And this is why so many people vote in spite of the messaging and narrative being spewed out by their preferred party.

It's a bit depressing, really
can you give an example of how the Republican party has become more extreme? If anything they have become more moderate, moving closer to the middle as society has become more liberal. A concrete example I can give is the general acceptance of pre-existing conditions in the healthcare debate. Republicans have completely given that up. If the Republicans were to go as extreme as the Democrats have, except in the opposite direction, they would now be straight up libertarian. You don't even hear them talk about gay marriage or abortion any more--much less even more extreme in their opposition.

The only extremism is coming from the Left.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be nice for Republicans to retake the House but as long as they keep the Senate (which they will) then Trump (who will probably win a second term) is impeachment-proof. After that, we need only for Thomas to step down and Trump will get another SCOTUS nominee (and possibly even another one if RBGs health doesn't hold out).

While campaigning in Nevada, neither Klobuchar nor Steyer could name the current President of Mexico (Luis Obrador). Despite the fact that this would be someone with whom our POTUS would be working on a regular basis, at least one CNN talking head was making excuses for their lapse, claiming that Democrat voters are concerned with health care more than naming the President of Mexico.

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