Kevin's Watch Forum Index
 HomeHome   MemberlistMemberlist   RegisterRegister   SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   FAQFAQ   StatisticsStatistics  SudokuSudoku   Phoogle MapPhoogle Map 
 AlbumAlbum StoresStores   StoresItems Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Coronavirus Epidemic. Is this it? Are we screwed?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> The Loresraat
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:29 am    Post subject: Coronavirus Epidemic. Is this it? Are we screwed? Reply with quote

http://news.trust.org/item/20200130224918-c4gqz


Quote:
China virus death toll rises to at least 212 as WHO declares global emergency



Something about the Coronavirus seems different from SARs and H1N1 scares of the past.
I think this is going to be a big deal.
I've heard that it's transmitted by moisture and dies quick but I've also read that it's airborne and takes days to die.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Hashi Lebwohl
Director of Data Acquisition

Male
Joined: 06 Jul 2009
Posts: 14133

Thanks: 24
Thanked 123 Times in 119 Posts

Location: UMCPHQ
79317 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Caesure1 Insequent1 UMCPHQ


PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One may only hope that it becomes a pandemic, but no--this will blow over just like all the other recent scares blew over.
_________________
No matter how thinly you slice it, it's still bologna.

What is the secret of Zen? Burn all your Zen books.

If you can't handle losing then you don't deserve to win.

Don Exnihilote wrote:
Hashi, if you thought you were wrong at times, evidently you were mistaken.


Mensa and Intertel
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a long read but a good recap of all the virus scares in the last 20 years:


https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/01/coronavirus-outbreak-sars-swine-flu-viral-history.html

On Wednesday, China confirmed that almost 6,000 people have been infected with the new coronavirus scientists are calling 2019-nCoV. The progress of 2019-nCoV, as witnessed via media, feels both scary and familiar. As the 21st century moves forward, and we lose all sense of time and space, one pandemic panic seems to merge into another. (As a reminder, a pandemic is when a new disease strain spreads beyond a local epidemic into a large regional or worldwide event.) Here's a brief timeline of the emerging infectious diseases that have made headlines this century-with updates on what we've learned since they were the focus of global concern.


2002-03: SARS: severe acute respiratory syndrome, a serious pneumonia caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV

What happened: The first casualty of SARS died in Guangdong, China, in November 2002. No drugs were effective against this sickness, which presented as serious pneumonia, and health care workers were especially hard-hit. The World Health Organization believes 8,098 people were eventually infected in 29 countries; the death toll ended up being about 774, with the death rate at about 9 percent to 12 percent of those who were diagnosed.

International cooperation helped send the disease into hiding. After researchers published the genetic code of the virus on the internet, epidemiologists determined that isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing would slow the spread of the disease-and, because the nature of the virus that causes SARS meant that victims were most contagious late in its course, when they tended to be hospitalized, these old-school public health measures worked.

A smaller outbreak in 2004 in China seems to have its origins in people who were working with the virus in a medical lab. The WHO declared SARS contained in 2005.

How we responded: SARS set the stage for the 21st-century debate over whether the answer to global pandemic should be the defensive sealing of borders or improvements in international coordination that facilitate better tracking and control of a disease's spread.

In some places, SARS triggered xenophobia and Sinophobia. In North America, newspapers like the New York Post ran China-blaming cartoons. The fact that China's government initially suppressed information about the virus added to the climate of blame. In an editorial that ran in March 2003, the Wall Street Journal called for the rest of the world to "suspend all travel links with China until it has implemented a transparent public health campaign"-a way for the rest of the world to force China to "act responsibly." In Canada, where 43 people died, Asian Canadians reported racist comments and loss of business due to SARS panic.

What we've learned since then: In 2006, scientists published research arguing that civet cats they had examined carried a virus with the same genetic profile as the one found in human victims. (Civet cats were sold for meat in the area where SARS emerged.) Researchers confirmed in 2017 that a colony of horseshoe bats in Yunnan province may have been the originators of the virus, with civet cats merely acting as the intermediary between bats and humans. Experts hailed the discovery with hopes that a vaccine might emerge-as yet, it has not.

SARS also lives on in labs-including in the Institut Pasteur, in Paris, which famously lost track of more than 2,000 vials containing the virus in 2014.

2003-07: H5N1, or "bird flu"

What happened: This flu strain, first isolated in Guangdong Province, China, in 1996, was confirmed present in a human patient in 1997 in Hong Kong. Starting in late 2003, Korea, China, Thailand, and Vietnam reported a stream of new H5N1 cases in animals-including, most dramatically, in zoo tigers that had been fed on infected chickens-and, then, fatalities among humans.

Migratory birds brought H5N1 across borders, and birds both domesticated and wild could carry it. This flu could pass from person to person, but did so less frequently than some other strains; mortality rates, on the other hand, were high with 6 out of every 10 people known to have been infected dying from H5N1-a total of about 300 global deaths.

But soon, reported infections slowed to a trickle, and the last confirmed human infection was detected in February 2017.

How we responded: With terror. Time's Feb. 9, 2004, issue featured an egg with a beak breaking through it, and a coverline asking: "Is Asia hatching the next human pandemic?" This cover must have sold well, because the magazine's Oct. 17, 2005, edition featured a humble white chicken topped by a yellow headline: "DEATH THREAT." The bird flu also fascinated journalists and science writers. Geographer and journalist Mike Davis published a book in 2005 that warned of a total apocalypse: The Monster at Our Door.

What we learned: This outbreak impressed upon us the importance of the anti-viral oseltamivir (Tamiflu), which had been successfully used to treat patients with H5N1. Several governments began stockpiles. On Nov. 1, 2005, George W. Bush asked Congress to fund America's stash of Tamiflu and Relenza with a budget of $1 billion. The pandemic also prompted additions to research budgets for flu-related projects.

In a 2019 piece about the legacy of H5N1, Stat's Helen Branswell wrote that the reasons for the dissipation of this strain aren't completely understood. H5N1 may have simply mutated into other "bird flu" viruses that are highly pathogenic to both wild and domestic avian populations, but less dangerous to humans-for now. In 2015, the American poultry industry suffered through an outbreak of H5N8 and H5N2 in large chicken flocks in the Midwest; this outbreak, which the USDA linked to migration routes, did not cross over to humans. As recently as November 2019, crows that died en masse in India tested positive for H5N1.

2009: "Swine flu," caused by the H1N1 virus

What happened: Within one week in mid-April 2009, a 10-year-old boy and a 9-year-old girl in Southern California, both of whom came down sick with the flu, tested positive for a new strain-H1N1. On April 24 of that year, the WHO announced that in March and April, Mexico had reported about 900 cases suspected to have been caused by the same strain, with 60 suspected deaths. The WHO officially declared a pandemic on June 11. By June of that summer, all 50 American states had reported cases, and more than 30 summer camps reported outbreaks. The flu receded as the summer wore on, then had a second wave in the fall of that year.

Finally, in August 2010, the WHO declared the end of the pandemic. Eventually, researchers estimated that at least 300,000 people died (though estimates are necessarily fudgy). Unlike with a more typical seasonal flu, elderly people were less likely to fall sick, because of immunity that derived from a flu strain that circulated in the middle of the 20th century.

How we responded: For this outbreak, we were primed to panic, maybe because of the precedent of SARS and bird flu. Egypt ordered 300,000 pigs killed. At the height of the outbreak, in the summer of 2009, the emergency room at St. Luke's, in New York City, saw double the usual number of patients-most of them didn't have the flu but were just scared they had it. Colleges canceled summer programs in Mexico; scammers sold shampoos and hand sprays supposed to protect against "swine flu"; members of Congress pressed the administration to seal the border with Mexico, against the CDC's advice. The American government went all-in on vaccination and stockpiled anti-virals, despite growing skepticism among scientists about the effectiveness of those measures.

What we learned: "This pandemic has turned out to be much more fortunate than what we feared a little over a year ago," Margaret Chan of the WHO said in a statement on Aug. 10, 2010. "We have been aided by pure good luck. The virus did not mutate during the pandemic to a more lethal form," widespread resistance to oseltamivir did not develop, and the vaccine worked well.

The relative mildness of swine flu, after so much buildup, triggered some suspicion. European countries, especially, felt deflated, having spent money on vaccine stockpiles. In June 2010, a joint investigation by the British Medical Journal and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism concluded that the WHO had taken advice from scientists in the course of its pandemic planning who were also being paid by pharmaceutical companies that produced vaccines and anti-virals. Responding to this investigation, the WHO convened an external Review Committee, whose proceedings were to be made open to the public.

2012-present: MERS: Middle East respiratory syndrome, caused by a coronavirus called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, or MERS-CoV

What happened: MERS-CoV was first identified in a patient in Saudi Arabia in 2012. As with SARS, the disease looks like severe pneumonia; with MERS, patients also have gastrointestinal symptoms, and sometimes experience kidney failure. Since 2012, 27 countries have reported cases, with 2,494 people confirmed infected and 858 dead, mostly in Saudi Arabia. All cases of MERS, the CDC stipulates, have been linked back to people who live in or have traveled to the Arabian Peninsula.

The WHO reports that about 35 percent of MERS-infected people have died, with health care workers at highest risk-though, since MERS can also result in such mild symptoms that a person may have it without knowing it, that death rate is almost certainly inflated.

In 2017, the WHO put SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV on its Priority Pathogen list, hoping to spur further research into coronaviruses.

How we responded: The WHO called an outbreak at a hospital in Seoul, South Korea, in 2015-a patient who had recently returned from the Middle East with what turned out to be MERS was left in an emergency room and a hallway for three days-a "wake-up call" for hospitals trying to manage emerging infectious diseases. As the outbreak in Seoul was at its height in the spring of 2015, the government quarantined almost 17,000 people, and foreign tourists shunned the city. That outbreak in Korea eventually killed 36.

What we learned: Dromedaries, researchers believe, play a major role in the spread of MERS-CoV and have likely transmitted the infection to humans. Scientists have tested other animals-goats, cows, sheep, pigs, birds-for MERS-CoV and haven't found it. Although we don't know the whole story, MERS-CoV seems to have first originated in bats, with camels serving as intermediaries between bats and humans, much as civets did in the case of SARS. MERS-CoV can be transmitted not only by the eating of camel meat, or the drinking of camel milk without proper pasteurization, but also by simple proximity between camels and humans.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Informative and depressing video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3hNPTofEU


And from that video it mentions this website that updates the numbers:

https://wuflu.live/
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rigel
Tenno Awoken


Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 1932

Thanks: 17
Thanked 8 Times in 8 Posts

Location: Portland, OR
1926 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

The 2019-2020 Flue Season:
19-26,000,000 illnesses
8-12,000,000 medical visits
180-310,000 hospitalizations
10-25,000 deaths

Coronavirus is a joke by comparison.

Wash your hands, people!
_________________
"You make me think Hell is run like a corporation."
"It's the other way around, but yes."
Obaki, Too Much Information
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Phoogle Map
Cord Hurn
Servant Of The Band

MaleRanyhyn
Joined: 28 Oct 2013
Posts: 5696

Thanks: 1000
Thanked 66 Times in 63 Posts

Location: Tucson, Arizona, USA
6859 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Plains of Ra1 Furls Fire1 Andelain


PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good Post
_________________
Jehannum
The Celebration of Spring

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Phoogle Map
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think China's unprecedented reaction and that the virus is only a month or so old makes comparing numbers to the common flu a little silly.

The reporting of case numbers out of China is suspect and probably much higher.
With those numbers the current ratio for Death\Recovered is 33\66%.
That's pretty freaking scary I think.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths


https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
298213
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2020/02/05 18:59


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) - As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.


Feb. 1 chart showing higher numbers (left), chart showing "official" numbers (right).

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.

However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rigel
Tenno Awoken


Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 1932

Thanks: 17
Thanked 8 Times in 8 Posts

Location: Portland, OR
1926 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, now those are some serious numbers. Hopefully, we'll get confirmation either way soon.

Regardless I was listening to a doctor speak on the subject and he brought up the point that we are now seeing new coronavirus outbreaks in China once a decade. He speculated that it was entirely due to a combination of the population density and the wet meat market; that is, people don't go to the local Kroger and get shrink-wrapped cuts, but they'll often buy cuts from a butcher who is slaughtering there in the shop, or even buying live animals to slaughter in their own kitchens.
_________________
"You make me think Hell is run like a corporation."
"It's the other way around, but yes."
Obaki, Too Much Information
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Phoogle Map
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We'll know in about two weeks from now if we're screwed.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/12/cdc-director-more-person-to-person-coronavirus-infections-in-u-s-likely-but-containment-still-possible/

CDC director: More person-to-person coronavirus infections in U.S. likely, but containment still possible

Health officials believe there is still opportunity to prevent widespread transmission of the coronavirus in the United States, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, even as he warned that more human-to-human transmission here is likely.

"We're still going to see new cases. We're probably going to see human-to-human transmission within the United States," Dr. Robert Redfield said in an interview with STAT.

He added that "at some point in time it is highly probable that we'll have to transition to mitigation" as a public health strategy, using "social distancing measures" for example, closure of certain public facilities and other techniques to try to limit the number of people who become infected.

"We're not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into this country," Redfield said. But, he added, "we do gain time by prolonging the containment phase as long as we can, provided that we still believe that's a useful public health effort.

"That's where we are right now in the United States."

If the United States begins to see instances in several parts of the country in which a single case ignites four "generations" of human-to-human infection, Redfield said meaning a person who contracted the virus infects a person, who infects another person, who then infects another person then the CDC is likely to conclude containment of the virus has failed.

At that point, he said, U.S. health officials will have to shift to a strategy of mitigation using "social distancing measures" and other techniques to try to limit the number of people who become infected.

"Once we get greater than three so four or more is our view [generations of] human-to-human transmission in the community and we see that in multiple areas of the country that are not contiguous, then basically the value of all of the containment strategies that we've done now then really become not effective," he said. "That's when we're in full mitigation."

The CDC director's remarks came as a group of experts that advises the World Health Organization's health emergencies program recommended that the world stay the current course of trying to halt spread of the new virus to stop it from becoming a human pathogen.

That strategy, "containment for elimination," was successful during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak though this epidemic is already nearly six times larger than SARS. During the SARS outbreak, roughly 8,000 people were infected and nearly 800 died.

Redfield said that China, which has reported more than 45,000 cases to date, has not been able to contain the virus, despite massively restricting internal travel to try to stop it from spreading from Hubei province. The epicenter of the outbreak has been the city of Wuhan, located in Hubei.

"Those countries that are still largely seeing cases that are really, like us, directly from Hubei province, there's reason to still stay in the containment mode rather than turning that off and going right to mitigation. Because once you're into mitigation, you will probably start to see more cases that may have been able to be contained," Redfield said.

The United States, along with a number of other countries, has taken a variety of steps to try to limit the risk of new infections from entering the country.

The State Department has ceased issuing visas to foreign nationals who have been in China in the past 14 days. Health officials are also quarantining people arriving in the United States for 14 days if they have set foot in Hubei province; people returning to the U.S. from other parts of China are being asked to self-quarantine for that period, which represents the estimated incubation period of the disease.

The WHO, which declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Jan. 30, has urged countries not to restrict travel or trade with China. Later the same day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Americans not to travel to China, raising his department's travel warning for China to the highest possible level.

Asked if American policy was in conflict with the WHO's advice, Redfield said the U.S. position on travel with China was evidence-based.

"I would suggest WHO's point of view is an opinion. It obviously carries weight because they're a strong global health organization," he said. "But we independently, those of us on the president's [coronavirus] task force, independently evaluated what the options were. And we felt collectively this was time for us to use movement restrictions and temporarily restrict travel for non-US citizens."

Some health experts and others have questioned the wisdom of the U.S. decision, noting that it was all but impossible for the restrictions alone to prevent all transmission of the virus. But officials have rejected that criticism.

"This really isn't a 'let's stop it and then we're done.' It's a 'if we can pause it a little bit, we buy ourselves some time to work on the rest of our pandemic planning,'" Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a panel discussion Tuesday at the Aspen Institute in Washington.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Then again we might not know anything then either.


Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States Are Flawed, C.D.C. Says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-test-kits-sent-to-states-30-countries-are-flawed-cdc-says/ar-BBZVBF6

Coronavirus cases seemed to be leveling off. Not anymore.


Some of the coronavirus testing kits sent to state laboratories around the country have flaws and do not work properly, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.
A medical staff member working with test systems for the diagnosis of coronavirus, at the Krasnodar Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology microbiology lab in Russia._ Associated Press A medical staff member working with test systems for the diagnosis of coronavirus, at the Krasnodar Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology microbiology lab in Russia.

The kits were meant to enable states to conduct their own testing and have results faster than they would by shipping samples to the C.D.C. in Atlanta. But the failure of the kits means that states that encountered problems with the test should not use it, and would still have to depend on the C.D.C.'s central lab, which could cause several days' delay in getting results.

"Obviously, a state wouldn't want to be doing this test and using it to make clinical decisions if it isn't working as well, as perfectly, at the state as it is at C.D.C.," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

The C.D.C. recommends testing for some people who have symptoms like fever, cough or shortness of breath, and who, within the past 14 days, have traveled to China or have been in close contact with a patient known to be infected with the coronavirus. Doctors with patients in that category are supposed to consult their state health department about whether the patients should be tested for the virus.

The C.D.C. announced late Wednesday that another evacuee quarantined at a military base in California had tested positive for coronavirus. The new case among evacuees from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, brings to 14 the total of confirmed cases in the United States. A previous case was diagnosed at the Miramar base in San Diego on Sunday.

The first and second patients arrived on different planes and were housed in separate facilities at Miramar, according to the C.D.C. Dr. Chris Braden, an expert on the site, said in a statement that, "At this time there is no indication of person-to-person spread of this virus at the quarantine facility, but C.D.C. will carry out a thorough contact investigation as part of its current response strategy to detect and contain any cases of infection with this virus."

The C.D.C. announced last week that it had begun shipping about 200 kits to laboratories in the United States and roughly 200 more to labs in more than 30 other countries. Each kit can test about 700 to 800 specimens from patients, the agency said.

Kits were shipped to every state, but officials did not say how many of the kits were faulty.

At a news conference on Wednesday morning, Dr. Messonnier said that test kits had been shipped to more than 30 other countries, but later in the day said that she was mistaken, and that the international shipments had been held back because of the flaw.

Before the kits were shipped to the states, Dr. Messonnier had emphasized repeatedly at news conferences that the kits would not go out until the C.D.C. was sure they were as accurate as possible.

Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the infectious diseases division at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said accurate diagnostic tests were invaluable.

"The test is the only way you can definitely know you have the infection," Dr. Marrazzo said. "You absolutely need it for case counting. It allows you to know who's infected. You can treat those people, if a treatment is available, and you can isolate them."

Doctors in China said there was an urgent need for a simpler, quicker diagnostic test, officials from the World Health Organization said during a news briefing on Wednesday.

On trial runs in some states, the C.D.C. kits produced results that were "inconclusive," Dr. Messonnier said. The tests did not involve samples from potential patients, but were part of the routine quality-control procedures that labs go through before using a test to make real diagnoses.

"Things may not always go as smoothly as we may like," Dr. Messonnier said.

The problem appeared to come from one ingredient involved in the test, Dr. Messonnier said, adding that the C.D.C. would make a new supply of that ingredient to send to all of the laboratories. Officials did not say when the ingredient would be shipped, but said the process was being expedited and the material would be made available as soon as possible.

States that did not have trouble with the kits could keep using them, Kristen Nordlund, a spokeswoman for the C.D.C., said, adding that those states would still receive the newly made ingredient from the agency.

The flawed test kits are a separate issue from the mislabeled samples in San Diego that led officials to discharge from a hospital a woman who was sick from the coronavirus.

More than 1,100 people have died, nearly all of them in China, where there are more than 44,000 confirmed cases.

The C.D.C. does not recommend testing for people who may have been exposed to the virus but have no symptoms. Even if they are infected, if they are still in the incubation period there may not be enough virus in their bodies for the test to detect.

The inability to detect very early infections is one reason for keeping planeloads of people from Wuhan in quarantine instead of just testing them and letting them go if the results are negative. A person could test negative and still be infected.

For the same reason, health authorities say there is no benefit to testing symptom-free people on cruise ships.

Because there is an unknown window of time between when a person becomes infected and when the test can find the virus, health officials have determined that a quarantine of two weeks - believed to be the incubation period of the illness - is the best way to make sure that people who may be infected do not transmit the virus to others.

Tests for other infectious diseases can also fail to detect some cases. A panel of tests used to screen for respiratory viruses when pneumonia is suspected can give negative results even if a patient is infected, Dr. Marrazzo said. So can rapid tests for flu and strep throat. Blood tests for H.I.V. can miss the diagnosis in people who were recently infected.

"There is no perfect test for pretty much any infectious disease I can think of," Dr. Marrazzo said.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a few things I've been reading:

I still haven't read anything confirming whether or not it's aerosoled or not.

Lots of talk about 24 days before you can show any symptoms which makes the recommended 2 week quarantine not effective.

Infected numbers in China just doubled today (almost 15K cases). this is after the WHO team arrived. Perhaps they were able to convince China to release some real numbers?

First it was the elderly and people with existing conditions that were at high risk and now the thinking is that it's 20 to 40 year olds. Something about how the virus makes the immune system kick into high gear.?.....I wish I saved the link.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!


Last edited by High Lord Tolkien on Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:24 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I found this in another forum (sorry but there are a few out there but not as good as this one Very Happy )
I thought it was interesting:


Quote:
The CDC specifically said to congress today that they think they have only identified 25% of the cases that came into the country by their calculations. He specifically said they expect that right now that other 75% are spreading the virus with community outbreaks that have not gotten any attention yet. he specifically said we could see explosive case growth in 2-4 weeks.

He also talked about the concern that most of the raw ingredients for pharmaceuticals come from china and that supply chain is disrupted. Those raw ingredients are processed by India and then the countries that make most of the drugs are India, Ireland and the US. He expressed concern that we will see shortages of needed drugs.

The CDC is telling us what they expect to happen, most people just aren't listening.

The video of the briefing and question and answers to congress is in this thread. I suggest everybody watch it. They are not painting a pretty picture. And this is coming from an organization that does not like to spook the public, yet their articulated warnings are not good.
They also said that they wouldn't be surprised if we saw "hundreds of thousands" of cases in the US before this was over with.

One of the other things that they talked about is that they were concerned about our "surge capacity" in the healthcare system and whether we could handle a large outbreak.

That's further complicated by the course of the disease. It can take 2 weeks until a patient progresses to needing ICU care. We could be looking at length of stays in excess of 3-4 weeks for some of these patients. That's an eternity in acute care hospitals.

Average length of stay in ICU is about 3.3 days. Average length of stay in an acute care (non-icu bed) is about 4.5 days.

Let's look at some statistics for ICU beds:

https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics

AHA data: According to the AHA 2015 annual survey, the United States had 4862 acute care registered hospitals; 2814 of these had at least 10 acute care beds and at least 1 ICU bed. These hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds) in 5229 ICUs. There were 46,490 medical-surgical beds in 2644 units, 14,731 cardiac beds in 976 units, 6588 other beds in 379 units, 4698 pediatric beds in 307 units, and 22,330 neonatal beds in 920 units. The median number of beds in medical-surgical, cardiac, and other units was 12, with 10 beds in pediatrics and 18 in neonatal. Fifty-two percent of hospitals had 1 unit, 24% had 2 units, and 24% had 3 or more units.

HCRIS data: In 2010 there were 2977 acute care hospitals with ICU beds. In these, there were 641,395 total acute care beds with 103,900 ICU beds (16.2% ICU beds/total beds). From 2000 to 2010, the number of critical care beds in the United States increased by 17.8%, from 88,235 to 103,900. However, the majority of the growth in critical care bed supply is occurring in a small number of U.S. regions that tend to have large populations, fewer baseline ICUs per 100,000 capita, higher baseline ICU occupancy, and increased market competition. Additionally, between 2000 and 2010, the greatest percentage increases were in neonatal beds (29%), followed by adult beds (26%); there were minimal changes in pediatric beds (2.7%). Of the 103,900 ICU beds in 2010, 83,417 (80.3%) were adult, 1917 (1.8%) were pediatric, and 18,567 (17.9%) were neonatal. In total, there were 33.6 beds per 100,000 population, 35.5 beds per 100,000 adult beds (age > 18 years), 2.7 beds/100,000 pediatric beds (age 1-17 years), and 470 beds/100,000 neonatal beds (age < 1 year).

Occupancy: Occupancy rates were calculated from HCRIS (days/possible days) data. In 2010, hospital and ICU occupancy rates were 64.6% and 68%, respectively. Occupancy rates vary by hospital size, with higher occupancy rates associated with larger hospitals.
Keep in mind that many hospitals make their budgets on how much staff to hire based on average occupancy.

So.. let's keep the numbers simple.

Let's say that we have 100,000 ICU beds and 65% of them (65,000) are occupied on average. That leaves us with approximately 35,000 ICU beds.

If 3% of total cases end up needing ICU care, and we have only 300,000 people sick, that means we'll only need around 9,000 ICU beds! We have plenty, right?

Not really.

The strict isolation will create additional personnel and supply demands. Staffing is already iffy for many hospitals.

If the overall occupancy increases significantly, we may not have enough resources to take care of these patients and their requirements for higher levels of care. A 10-15% increase in ICU occupancy could create significant staffing problems.

Not all ICU beds are set up for negative pressure. Negative pressure rooms keep air from flowing out of the room and potentially infecting someone in the hall or in the next room.

Infecting staff and other patients is a serious concern.

We've also seen that coronavirus has been shown to infect medical staff even though they were wearing PPE.

ICU beds aren't evenly distributed around the country. Larger medical centers in big cities will tend to have more ICU beds. This is also were we would be more likely to see clusters of people infected due to the higher population densities. Also, city hospitals would likely end up with transfers from smaller, outlying hospitals for their more acutely ill ICU patients. You could be in a city with a great hospital with ICU beds, but they're all full. So now what?

If China stays shut down, supply chain issues for medications WILL be an issue. We get most of our antibiotics from China.

If we want to get through this, we need to try to slow any further cases as much as possible so we don't get slammed with a bunch of people that need to be hospitalized.

_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a list from another site.
I agree with all the points since I've seen it online many times but even then it's all still so unknown and could be a lot worse.

Quote:

What we know:
- highly contagious
- can catch via aerosol breathing, mouth, nose, eyes
- can catch by touching infected surface
- virus can live up to 5 days (maybe 9) on surfaces
- R0 somewhere between 2-6.7
- patients may be asymptomatic and spread the virus
- incubation somewhere btw 3-28 days
- tests may show negative then positive and negative again
- fever is majority of first symptom flu like symptoms follow
- current CFR somewhere around 3% probably higher.
- 20% of advanced onset result in pneumonia
- males 40-60 are greatest effected



"CFR":
In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR)-or case fatality risk, case fatality ratio or just fatality rate-is the proportion of deaths within a designated population of "cases" (people with a medical condition) over the course of the disease.

"R0":
R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven't been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Customary values of R0 of well-known infectious diseases[1]
Disease Transmission R0
Measles Airborne 12-18
Diphtheria Saliva 6-7
Smallpox Airborne droplet 5-7
Polio Fecal-oral route 5-7
Rubella Airborne droplet 5-7
Mumps Airborne droplet 4-7
COVID-19 Airborne droplet 4.7-6.6
Pertussis Airborne droplet 5.5
HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 2-5
SARS Airborne droplet 2-5
Influenza
(1918 pandemic strain) Airborne droplet 2-3
Ebola
(2014 Ebola outbreak) Body fluids 1.5-2.5
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rigel
Tenno Awoken


Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 1932

Thanks: 17
Thanked 8 Times in 8 Posts

Location: Portland, OR
1926 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was listening to the latest Market Foolery and they mentioned an iPhone shortage due to supply chain problems, so I did some digging and found this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-impact-to-potentially-disrupt-gm-truck-production.html

Coronavirus impact spreads to European auto plant and could hit GM truck production
PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 14 202012:22 PM ESTUPDATED FRI, FEB 14 20201:17 PM EST
Michael Wayland
@MIKEWAYLAND
KEY POINTS
Automakers working to restart manufacturing in China amid the coronavirus outbreak are trying to prevent operations elsewhere from being affected by supply shortages.
GM confirmed Friday it is closely monitoring the supply chain for its highly profitable truck production in North America.
Fiat Chrysler said it plans to halt operations at its factory in Serbia due to a lack of parts from China because of the coronavirus.
GP: GM SUV manufacturing Texas
An employee uses a flash grinder to smooth out the metal frame of a sports utility vehicle (SUV) on the production line at the General Motors Co. (GM) assembly plant in Arlington, Texas.
Matthew Busch | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Automakers working to restart manufacturing in China amid the coronavirus outbreak are trying to prevent operations elsewhere from being affected by supply shortages.

General Motors confirmed Friday it is closely monitoring the supply chain for its highly profitable truck production in North America, spokesman David Barnas said in an emailed statement. He added that the automaker "does not anticipate any impact on full-size truck production at this time."

Terry Valenzuela, president of a United Auto Workers chapter in Texas that produces GM's full-size SUVs, told CNBC on Friday it's possible that production there could be disrupted due to supply issues.

The comments follow a report by The Detroit Bureau, an online industry news website, that union leaders in Flint, Michigan, warned of potential parts shortages at their plant as well as the SUV plant in Texas and another truck plant in Indiana due to the coronavirus. A social media post, which appears to have been taken down, reportedly said the parts shortage, including decal applications, could begin as early as this month with wider impact occurring if the issues progress into March.

"We continue to monitor our supply chain and are in close communications with our Tier One suppliers to attempt to mitigate risks to production in North America," Barnas said.

Vehicles that could be impacted if the plants were to be idled include the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup trucks and Chevrolet Tahoe, Chevrolet Suburban, GMC Yukon and Cadillac Escalade SUVs.


WATCH NOW
VIDEO00:52
Jim Cramer says business leaders are 'personally worried' of the coronavirus
GM on Friday also confirmed plans to halt production at an assembly plant in South Korea next week for two days due to supply issues as a result of China's manufacturing shutdown. The company said it will continue with previously announced plans to start reopening its 15 assembly plants in the country over a two-week period starting Saturday.

GM joins other automakers such as Nissan Motor, Hyundai Motor/Kia Motors and Fiat Chrysler in having to shut down operations in other countries due to supply-chain issues such as a lack of parts.

Fiat Chrysler confirmed Friday it plans to halt operations at its factory in Serbia due to a lack of parts from China because of the coronavirus. The stoppage, which was first reported by Bloomberg, marks the first time an automaker has had to idle a facility in Europe due to the virus.

"We are in the process of securing future supply of those affected parts and production will be restarted later this month," the company said in an emailed statement. "We do not expect this change in scheduling to impact the total production forecasted for the month."

A spokesman for Fiat Chrysler declined to provide additional details about the shutdown or the company's operations in China but said the company continues to monitor the situation. Fiat Chrysler's Kragujevac plant in Serbia produces the Fiat 500L, a slow-selling vehicle in the United States.

Handout: 2016 Fiat 500L
Fiat 500L
Source: Fiat Chrysler
Ford Motor confirmed Friday it is trying to prepare and ramp up operations at its plants in China. The company on a tiered schedule started reopening its handful of assembly plants in the country at the beginning of this week.

Ford spokesman Anderson Chan said Friday that no operations outside of China have been impacted by the COVID-19 virus or any supply-chain disruptions.

"At this time, our plants outside of China are operating as planned," Chan wrote in an email. "We are monitoring the situation very closely."

Ford's nonproduction employees in China, according to Chan, have been instructed to continue to work from home until Feb. 24 to reduce the risk of infection.

Honda Motor said Friday its workers in China are expected to return to work on Feb. 24, followed by production restarting at its plants in Wuhan on Feb. 21 - eight days later than previously expected.

Other automakers such as Nissan and Toyota Motor were expected to reopen or prepare to restart factories this week and next. Spokespeople with the companies did not have any changes to announce to those plans as of Friday.
_________________
"You make me think Hell is run like a corporation."
"It's the other way around, but yes."
Obaki, Too Much Information
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Phoogle Map
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, there is going to be some serious shortages in the months ahead for too many things.
And this just totally sucks:


https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/13/coronavirus-outbreak-exposes-chinas-monopoly-on-u-s-drug-medical-supplies/

Quote:
China is a source of not only finished goods, but also of input parts and raw materials. A substantial number of the materials needed for defense and electronic systems come from China, and that nation is "the single or sole supplier for a number of specialty chemicals," according to a recent Defense Department report. Rare earth minerals, which are critical to electronics, are largely mined in China. As a result, Chinese disruptions don't just hit Chinese manufacturing, they hit everyone's. Automakers have already had to slow or shut down factories globally due to supply shortages.

Perhaps the biggest concern is over medical supplies. China produces and exports a large amount of pharmaceuticals to the U.S., including 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active ingredients used to make drugs here. Penicillin, ibuprofen, and aspirin largely come from China. Last month, the medical supply firm Cardinal Health recalled 2.9 million surgical gowns "cross contaminated" at a plant in China; the blood pressure drug valsartan also saw shortages recently, thanks to tainted active ingredients at one Chinese plant. The combination of supply chain disruptions and increased demand at hospitals if coronavirus spreads to the U.S. could prove devastating.

In a dark irony, most of the world's face masks-now ubiquitous in China as a precaution-are made in China and Taiwan, and even for those made elsewhere, some component parts are Chinese-sourced. Shortages have led China to declare the masks a "strategic resource," reserving them for medical workers. U.S. hospitals are "critically low" on respiratory masks, according to medical-supply middlemen. Lack of protective gear could increase vulnerability to the virus, and the one place on earth suffering from production shutdowns is the one place where most of the protective gear originates.

About 40 percent of generic drugs sold in the U.S. have only a single manufacturer. A significant supply chain disruption could cause shortages for some of many of these products.

Last year, manufacturing of intermediate or finished goods in China, as well as pharmaceutical source material, accounted for 95 percent of U.S. imports of ibuprofen, 91 percent of U.S. imports of hydrocortisone, 70 percent of U.S. imports of acetaminophen, 40 to 45 percent of U.S. imports of penicillin, and 40 percent of U.S. imports of heparin, according to the Commerce Department. In total, 80 percent of the U.S. supply of antibiotics are made in China.

While much of the fill finishing work (the actual formulation of finished drug capsules and tablets) is done outside China (and often in India) the starting and intermediate chemicals are often sourced in China. Moreover, the U.S. generic drug industry can no longer produce certain critical medicines such as penicillin and doxycycline without these chemical components.

According to a report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China's chemical industry, which accounts for 40 percent of global chemical industry revenue, provides a large number of ingredients for drug products. It's these source materials - where in many cases China is the exclusive source of the chemical ingredients used for the manufacture of a drug product - that create choke points in the global supply chain for critical medicines.

Moreover, when it comes to starting material for the manufacture of pharmaceutical ingredients, a lot of this production is centered in China's Hubei Provence, the epicenter of coronavirus. Most drug makers have a one to three-months of inventory of drug ingredients on hand. But these supplies are already being drawn down. Among big [active pharmaceutical ingredient] makers in Wuhan are Wuhan Shiji Pharmaceutical, Chemwerth, Hubei Biocause, Wuhan Calmland Pharmaceuticals.

_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is how a virus like this affects the body:




Quote:
Here's what coronavirus does to the body
From blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here's an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans.
11 MINUTE READ
BY AMY MCKEEVER
PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 15, 2020

MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN about the novel coronavirus ripping through China, but one thing is certain. The disease can cast a storm over the whole human body.

Such has been the nature of past zoonotic coronaviruses, ones that hopped from animals to humans like SARS and MERS. Unlike their common-cold-causing cousins, these emergent coronaviruses can spark a viral-induced fire throughout many of a person's organs, and the new disease-dubbed "COVID-19" by the World Health Organization on Tuesday-is no exception when it is severe.

That helps explain why the COVID-19 epidemic has killed more than 1,500 people, surpassing the SARS death toll in a matter of weeks. While the death rate for COVID-19 appears to be a tenth of SARS, the novel coronavirus has spread faster.

Confirmed cases rose to more than 60,000 on Thursday, nearly a 50 percent jump relative to the prior day, and the tally has risen by another 7,200 since then. This leap reflects a change in the way Chinese authorities are diagnosing infections instead of a massive shift in the scope of the outbreak. Rather than wait for patients to test positive for the virus, diagnoses now include anyone whose chest scan reveals COVID-19's distinctive pattern of pneumonia. This method will hopefully allow authorities to isolate and treat patients more quickly.

If this outbreak continues to spread, there's no telling how harmful it could become. A leading epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong warned this week that COVID-19 could infect 60 percent of the globe if left unchecked. On Thursday, China's National Health Commission said more than 1,700 health care workers are ill with the new virus, and the announcement came just a day after the WHO wrapped a summit on the best protocols for hospital care and the development of therapeutics, like vaccines.

But what actually happens to your body when it is infected by the coronavirus? The new strain is so genetically similar to SARS that it has inherited the title SARS-CoV-2. So combining early research on the new outbreak with past lessons from SARS and MERS can provide an answer.

The Lungs: Ground zero
For most patients, COVID-19 begins and ends in their lungs, because like the flu, coronaviruses are respiratory diseases.

They spread typically when an infected person coughs or sneezes, spraying droplets that can transmit the virus to anyone in close contact. Coronaviruses also cause flu-like symptoms: Patients might start out with a fever and cough that progresses to pneumonia or worse. (Find out how coronavirus spreads on a plane-and the safest place to sit).

After the SARS outbreak, the World Health Organization reported that the disease typically attacked the lungs in three phases: viral replication, immune hyper-reactivity, and pulmonary destruction.

Not all patients went through all three phases-in fact only 25 percent of SARS patients suffered respiratory failure, the defining signature of severe cases. Likewise, COVID-19, according to early data, causes milder symptoms in about 82 percent of cases, while the remainder are severe or critical.

Look deeper, and the novel coronavirus appears to follow other patterns of SARS, says University of Maryland School of Medicine associate professor Matthew B. Frieman, who studies highly pathogenic coronaviruses.

In the early days of an infection, the novel coronavirus rapidly invades human lung cells. Those lung cells come in two classes: ones that make mucus and ones with hair-like batons called cilia.

Mucus, though gross when outside the body, helps protect lung tissue from pathogens and make sure your breathing organ doesn't dry out. The cilia cells beat around the mucus, clearing out debris like pollen or viruses.

Frieman explains that SARS loved to infect and kill cilia cells, which then sloughed off and filled patients' airways with debris and fluids, and he hypothesizes that the same is happening with the novel coronavirus. That's because the earliest studies on COVID-19 have shown that many patients develop pneumonia in both lungs, accompanied by symptoms like shortness of breath.

That's when phase two and the immune system kicks in. Aroused by the presence of a viral invader, our bodies step up to fight the disease by flooding the lungs with immune cells to clear away the damage and repair the lung tissue.

When working properly, this inflammatory process is tightly regulated and confined only to infected areas. But sometimes your immune system goes haywire and those cells kill anything in their way, including your healthy tissue.

"So you get more damage instead of less from the immune response," Frieman says. Even more debris clogs up the lungs, and pneumonia worsens. (Find out how the novel coronavirus compares to flu, Ebola, and other major outbreaks).

During the third phase, lung damage continues to build-which can result in respiratory failure. Even if death doesn't occur, some patients survive with permanent lung damage. According to the WHO, SARS punched holes in the lungs, giving them "a honeycomb-like appearance"-and these lesions are present in those afflicted by novel coronavirus, too.

These holes are likely created by the immune system's hyperactive response, which creates scars that both protect and stiffen the lungs.

When that occurs, patients often have to be put on ventilators to assist their breathing. Meanwhile, inflammation also makes the membranes between the air sacs and blood vessels more permeable, which can fill the lungs with fluid and affect their ability to oxygenate blood.

"In severe cases, you basically flood your lungs and you can't breathe," Frieman says. "That's how people are dying."

The Stomach: A shared gateway
During the SARS and MERS outbreaks, nearly a quarter of patients had diarrhea-a much more significant feature of those zoonotic coronaviruses. But Frieman says it's still not clear whether gastrointestinal symptoms play a major part in the latest outbreak, given cases diarrhea and abdominal pain have been rare. But why does a respiratory virus bother the gut at all?

When any virus enters your body, it looks for human cells with its favorite doorways-proteins on the outside of the cells called receptors. If the virus finds a compatible receptor on a cell, it can invade.

Some viruses are picky about which door they choose, but others are a little more promiscuous. "They can very easily penetrate into all types of cells," says Anna Suk-Fong Lok, assistant dean for clinical research at the University of Michigan Medical School and former president of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Both SARS and MERS viruses can access the cells that line your intestines and large and small colon, and those infections appear to flourish in the gut, potentially causing the damage or the leakage of fluid that becomes diarrhea.

But Frieman says we don't know yet if the novel coronavirus does the same. Researchers believe COVID-19 uses the same receptor as SARS, and this doorway can be found in your lungs and small intestines.

Two studies-one in the New England Journal of Medicine and one preprint in medRxiv involving 1,099 cases-have also detected the virus in stool samples, which might indicate the virus could spread via feces. But this is far from conclusive.

"Whether that kind of fecal transmission is occuring for this Wuhan virus, we don't know at all," Frieman says. "But it definitely looks like it's there in the stool and it looks like people do have GI symptoms associated with this."

Blood storm
Coronaviruses can also cause problems in other systems of the body, due to the hyperactive immune response we mentioned earlier.

A 2014 study showed that 92 percent of patients with MERS had at least one manifestation of the coronavirus outside of the lungs. In fact, signs of a full body blitz have been witnessed with all three of the zoonotic coronaviruses: elevated liver enzymes, lower white blood cell and platelet count, and low blood pressure. In rare cases, patients have suffered from acute kidney injury and cardiac arrest.

But this isn't necessarily a sign that the virus itself is spreading throughout the body, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist and associate research scientist at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. It might be a cytokine storm.

Cytokines are proteins used by the immune system as alarm beacons-they recruit immune cells to the site of infection. The immune cells then kill off the infected tissue in a bid to save the rest of the body.

Humans rely on our immune systems to keep their cool when facing a threat. But during a runaway coronavirus infection, when the immune system dumps cytokines into the lungs without any regulation, this culling becomes a free-for-all, Rasmussen says "Instead of shooting at a target with a gun, you're using a missile launcher," she says. That's where the problem arises: Your body is not just targeting the infected cells. It is attacking healthy tissue too.

The implications extend outside the lungs. Cytokine storms create inflammation that weakens blood vessels in the lungs and causes fluid to seep through to the air sacs. "Basically you're bleeding out of your blood vessels," Rasmussen says. The storm spills into your circulatory system and creates systemic issues across multiple organs.

From there, things can take a sharp turn for the worse. In some of the most severe COVID-19 cases, the cytokine response-combined with a diminished capacity to pump oxygen to the rest of the body-can result in multi-organ failure. Scientists don't know exactly why some patients experience complications outside of the lung, but it might be linked to underlying conditions like heart disease or diabetes.

"Even if the virus doesn't get to kidneys and liver and spleen and other things, it can have clear downstream effects on all of those processes," Frieman says. And that's when things can get serious.

Liver: Collateral damage
When a zoonotic coronavirus spreads from the respiratory system, your liver is often one downstream organ that suffers. Doctors have seen indications of liver injury with SARS, MERS, and COVID-19-often mild, though more severe cases have led to severe liver damage and even liver failure. So what's happening?

"Once a virus gets into your bloodstream, they can swim to any part of your body," Lok says. "The liver is a very vascular organ so [a coronavirus] can very easily get into your liver."

Your liver works pretty hard to make sure your body can function properly. Its main job is to process your blood after it leaves the stomach, filtering out the toxins and creating nutrients your body can use. It also makes the bile that helps your small intestine break down fats. Your liver also contains enzymes, which speed up chemical reactions in the body.

In a normal body, Lok explains, liver cells are constantly dying off and releasing enzymes into your bloodstream. This resourceful organ then quickly regenerates new cells and carries on with its day. Because of that regeneration process, the liver can withstand a lot of injury.

When you have abnormally high levels of enzymes in your blood, though-as has been a common characteristic of patients suffering from SARS and MERS-it's a warning sign. It might be a mild injury that the liver will quickly bounce back from or it could be something more severe-even liver failure.

Lok says scientists don't completely understand how these respiratory viruses behave in the liver. The virus might be directly infecting the liver, replicating and killing off the cells itself. Or those cells might be collateral damage as your body's immune response to the virus sets off a severe inflammatory reaction in the liver.

Either way, she notes that liver failure was never the sole cause of death for SARS patients. "By the time the liver fails," she says, "oftentimes you'll find that the patient not only has lung problems and liver problems but they may also have kidney problems. By then it becomes a systemic infection."

Kidney: It's all connected
Yes, your kidneys are caught up in this mess, too. Six percent of SARS patients-and a full quarter of MERS patients-suffered acute renal injury. Studies have shown the novel coronavirus can do the same. It may be a relatively uncommon feature of the disease, but it is a fatal one. Ultimately 91.7 percent of SARS patients with acute renal impairment died, according to a 2005 study in Kidney International.

Like the liver, your kidneys act as a filter your blood. Each kidney is filled with about 800,000 of microscopic distilling units called nephrons. These nephrons have two main components: a filter to clean the blood and a little tubes that return the good stuff back to your body or send the waste down to your bladder as urine.

It's the kidney tubules that seem to be most affected by these zoonotic coronaviruses. After the SARS outbreak, the WHO reported that the virus was found in kidney tubules, which can become inflamed.

It's not uncommon to detect a virus in the tubules if it's in your bloodstream, says Kar Neng Lai, a professor emeritus at the University of Hong Kong and consultant nephrologist at Hong Kong Sanatorium and Hospital. As your kidneys are continuously filtering blood, sometimes the tubular cells can trap the virus and cause a transient, or milder, injury.

That injury could become lethal if the virus penetrates the cells and begins to replicate. But Lai-who was also a member of the first group of researchers reporting on SARS and contributed to the Kidney International study-says there was no evidence that the SARS virus was replicating in the kidney.

That finding, Lai says, suggests acute kidney injury in SARS patients might be due to a diverse set of causes, including low blood pressure, sepsis, drugs, or a metabolic disturbance. Meanwhile, the more severe cases that led to acute renal failure showed signs of-you guessed it-a cytokine storm.

Acute renal failure can also sometimes be brought on by antibiotics, multi-organ failure, or being connected to a ventilator for too long. Everything is connected.

Pregnancy and coronavirus?
It's the great irony of the Twitter age that we know too little about the novel coronavirus as we drown in information updates about it. Medical journals have published several studies about this outbreak-some more vetted than others as researchers rush to feed the maw. Meanwhile, news outlets are reporting every development. All this information whirls around the internet where discerning fact from fiction is a notorious challenge.

"This is really unprecedented in terms of the up-to-the-minute reporting on what's going on in these studies," Rasmussen says. "It's really tricky trying to sort through all of the information and figure out what's really supported, what's speculative, and what's plain wrong."

For example last week, doctors at a hospital in Wuhan reported that two infants tested positive for the novel coronavirus, one just 30 hours after birth. Naturally, this troubling headline spread across news organizations, given it raised questions of whether pregnant women can infect their unborn children in utero or whether the disease can be transmitted during birth or through breast milk.

But let's pump the breaks. Mother-to-infant transmission wasn't observed with SARS nor MERS despite numerous cases involving pregnant women. Plus, there are other ways a newborn could catch the coronavirus, Rasmussen says, such as by being born at hospital overrun with infected patients during a hectic emergency.

In fact, a new study published Thursday in The Lancet offers preliminary evidence that the coronavirus cannot be passed from mother to child.

In the report, researchers observed nine women in Wuhan who had COVID-19 pneumonia. Some of the women had pregnancy complications, but all cases resulted in live births without evidence of transmitting the infection. While this study doesn't completely rule out the possibility of transmission during pregnancy, it underscores the need to exercise caution in speculating about this disease.

"There needs to be a high standard of evidence before you can say that's happening definitively-and certainly before you start making changes to how cases are managed clinically or in terms of public policy," Rasmussen says.

Frieman agrees. He hopes this epidemic will prompt more funding for coronavirus research like the recent pledges from the European Union and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. But Frieman wants the support and interest to last even if this outbreak eventually fizzles out, unlike what happened with SARS research.

"Right after the SARS outbreak, there was a big bunch of money and then it went away," Frieman says. "Why don't we have these answers? Nobody funded these things."

Editor's Note: This article has been updated to reflect the death toll and case count as of February 15. Also, the article originally misstated Anna Suk-Fong Lok's title. She is the assistant dean for clinical research at the University of Michigan Medical School and former president of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/

_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So 60 million people are going to be under lockdown or self quarantine at least until March 11.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-02-20/chinas-hubei-epicentre-of-coronavirus-extends-work-suspension-to-march-11

Quote:
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's Hubei province on Thursday asked firms not to resume work before March 11 due to the coronavirus outbreak, saying only businesses involved in epidemic prevention and control or necessary public services would be exempt.

Schools will also remain shut, the Hubei government said on its official Weibo account, extending a suspension that previously stretched to Feb. 21.

_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
High Lord Tolkien
Excommunicated Member of THOOLAH

Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 6989

Thanks: 14
Thanked 45 Times in 43 Posts

Location: Cape Cod, Mass
2717 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Member of THOOLAH1 Lord Mhoram's Victory


PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

South Korea, Thailand, Japan....it's spreading out slowly but surely.
Information from China on this is all but worthless.

It will be interesting to see how S Korea and Japan do fighting this.



[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-coronavirus-crisis-mass-infections-feared-at-2-hospitals,-4-factories-and-naval-base!-infected-cases-now:-107-death-1,-suspected-cases-8,1[/url]

SOUTH KOREA CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: Mass Infections feared at 2 hospitals, 4 Factories and Naval Base! Infected Cases Now: 107 Death 1, Suspected Cases 8,120
Source : Thailand Medical News Feb 20, 2020 2 hours ago
South Korea is 'heavily competing' with Japan to seize the title of the second epicenter for the coronavirus outside China as new cases are again detected in the few hours with another 3 more infected cases confirmed at Daegu, bring the total number of coronavirus infected cases to now 107.

However a breaking report now claims that 2 hospitals could be sites for mass infections.

At one hospital, the Deanam hospital Cheongdo, North Gyeongsang Province, 15 patients were found to have been infected with the coronavirus in the 420 bed hospital that has a high number of outpatient clinics. The first coronavirus death was also reported at the same hospital with staff now claiming that some its long term patients had already been having symptoms for as long as three weeks ago.

The dead patient was in his 60s and had been under treatment at Cheongdo Daenam Hospital for 20 years. He died the previous day, according to health officials. The patient suffered pneumonia-like illness before death and was confirmed to have been infected with coronavirus through a posthumous test.

KCDC Director Jung Eun-kyeong said at a news briefing, "We ask anyone who has had any contact with the hospital to self-isolate."

KCDC health officials worry of a possible mass coronavirus infection there, since patients infected with COVID-19 are those who have been hospitalized there for a long time.

To make matter worst, another hospital, the Dongguk University Gyeongju Hospital in Gyeongju, near Cheongdo with more than 800 beds has discovered two male older patients also with the confirmed infected with the coronavirus.

They were hospitalized in a locked psychiatric ward of the hospital and had not left the hospital for past month, raising question on how the two became contracted, and further concern as it could affect more inside the closed unit of the hospital.

To further aggravate the situation a navy sailor on the southern island of Jeju was confirmed on Thursday to have contracted the new coronavirus in the first confirmed case among service personnel in South Korea, government officials said.

The male in his 20s was one of the country's 107 patients of COVID-19, according to the officials.

The naval soldier was known to have visited his hometown, Daegu, 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, about 3 weeks ago, where dozens of confirmed cases have been reported since Wednesday.

The naval base he is stationed at, has close to 5,200 personnel and he had been at the base for more than 2 weeks prior to developing symptoms.

Meanwhile 4 factories have been identified as having had staff with confirmed coronavirus infections.
_________________
http://thoolah.blogspot.com/



[Defeated by a gizmo from Batman's utility belt]
Joker: I swear by all that's funny never to be taken in by that unconstitutional device again!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> The Loresraat All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by Earthpower © Kevin's Watch