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Official 2020 Presidential Prognostication Thread
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Obi-Wan Nihilo
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
While campaigning in Nevada, neither Klobuchar nor Steyer could name the current President of Mexico (Luis Obrador). Despite the fact that this would be someone with whom our POTUS would be working on a regular basis, at least one CNN talking head was making excuses for their lapse, claiming that Democrat voters are concerned with health care more than naming the President of Mexico.
Sounds hollow after the pearl-clutching that went on when Gary Johnson didn't know what "Aleppo" was.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No Hashi you're wrong. It is absolutely VITAL we get the House too because of all the lies and venom from the Democrats when they are in control of it. We need the GOP to be in control of both houses of Congress so that they can prevent this nonsense.

Let's not squander it like we did the last time.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Sounds hollow after the pearl-clutching that went on when Gary Johnson didn't know what "Aleppo" was.


I gave Johnson shit for that because he made all Libertarians looks like idiots.

I do hope that the Republicans retake the House, as well, because then they can change the rules so that "impeaching a POTUS" requires a 2/3 vote as opposed to a simple majority--that will stop any future politically-motivated impeachments.

The other thing a fully-Republican Congress should do is raise the number of justices on the SCOTUS to 11 and give Trump two more nominees, or even more if Thomas steps down and/or Ginsburg's health doesn't hold out.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I disagree with raising the # of justices. It would provide momentum to the Dems doing the same and packing the court.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
I disagree with raising the # of justices. It would provide momentum to the Dems doing the same and packing the court.


Some Democrats have already talked about doing that if they keep the House and regain the Senate. The idea is already out there and is developed far enough that candidates have short lists of people they want to nominate.

I don't mind if Democrats keep the House but they must not be allowed to have the Senate, as well.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Sounds hollow after the pearl-clutching that went on when Gary Johnson didn't know what "Aleppo" was.


I gave Johnson shit for that because he made all Libertarians looks like idiots. ven more if Thomas steps down and/or Ginsburg's health doesn't hold out.

We all did, it was a stupid misstep.

Packing the court is a terrible idea. Trump will get at least 2 more in the next 5 years. Let the Democrats try to break that in 2024.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packing the court has been tried before. FDR tried it and failed.
If the longest term POTUS couldn't do it 75 years ago, then
I doubt that it will be tried again. The issue is very moot.




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PostPosted: Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote



Trump drove the presidential limo, The Beast, for one lap at the NASCAR Daytona 500.

This is how you connect with the working class, Dems. Of course, you are too haughty to do something like this.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
Trump drove the presidential limo, The Beast, for one lap at the NASCAR Daytona 500.

This is how you connect with the working class, Dems. Of course, you are too haughty to do something like this.


I concur. Hit a couple more sporting events like that and they will give him more positive visibility to potential voters.

Meanwhile, some topless protesters hit a Bernie rally trying to get him to promise to end the dairy industry--animal activists are weird. We don't care about your cause, ladies, but thank you for the free show.

There has been an uptick in chatter about Bloomberg picking Hillary as his VP. I dismiss it because she does not want to motivate the Trump and anti-Hillary voter base more than they are already motivated. Ms. Lebwohl thinks it is a possibility but only so that if they win Hillary will pull a Babylon 5 VP Clark move--"oops! what a tragedy, but I guess that makes me President now".

edit/add: John Sununu states that Bloomberg has managed to take the title "Gaffe King" away from Biden by making more stupid comments than Joe has done. That led me almost immediately to this conclusion: Bloomberg is running a fake campaign, taking all the heat for Biden but also generating a lot of support, so that he can drop out and endorse Biden, catapulting Joe from fifth place back into first.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glad I'm not alone on thinking the that the GOP vote would show up in droves to keep Hillary "One Epstein away from the Oval Office." Wink

And it ian interesting theory about Bloomberg. In all honesty, the Dems are crazy if they think they are going to get the Latino/African-American vote out to support the "Stop and Frisk" candidate. This at least gives a purpose to his running. Otherwise, I just don't see it.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biden loves kids bouncing on his lap. (He actually said this.)
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DoctorGamgee wrote:
And it ian interesting theory about Bloomberg. In all honesty, the Dems are crazy if they think they are going to get the Latino/African-American vote out to support the "Stop and Frisk" candidate. This at least gives a purpose to his running. Otherwise, I just don't see it.


Democrats are always so worried about the black and Hispanic vote but Bloomber is now in the top 5 and--bizarrely--has even managed to garner one or two black endorsements. The endorsements must be from people who are desperate for a campaign contribution, though. "Stop and frisk" and his comments about the program are going to--should--cost him a lot of minority voters.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still can't get over the time those naked vegans upstaged Bernie at one of his rallies. He should have backhanded that vegan woman who grabbed his mic and said in a deep, confident voice: "You will be the first one I send to the gulag, you bitch! You will starve to death!"

Instead he weakly grasped for that mic and gave up when he couldn't break her grip. You're a weak man, Bernie Sanders.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Bernie's defense, when was the last time he saw a decent pair of breasts that close? He probably forgot where he was and what he was doing for a minute. The media kept pixeling the photos, too, damn it.

Bloomberg is slated to be on the debate stage in another 5 days with the same people again. That is not nearly enough time to prepare so he will have several more awkward moments, especialy if--when--they bring up the NDAs again.

"Fat broad" jokes? When were they told, the mid 80s? No one has used that term in at least 30 years. Just to show how times have changed, though, that used to be the name of a regular character in the comic strip B. C. Half of Sanders' most devoted fans weren't even born in the 80s--hell, I was in junior high school when Buttigieg was born. Jeez.

They just can't leave it alone, can they? The Left is already claiming that Russia is interfering--or planning to interfere--in the 2020 election. They are setting up the narrative to explain why the Democrat nominee lost and Trump won a second term. *sigh*

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I worked for the Mondale campaign
When I was 16. Mondale won only
DC and Minnesota. If Bernie is the
Nominee will we see an even bigger
Loss? Any thoughts?
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been beating that drum for months. Trump will win with over 300 electoral votes no matter which lamb the Democrats offer up for sacrifice.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Large and historically-blue States like California, New York, and Illinois are definitely going to vote for Sanders, or whoever the Democrat nominee will be. A few other deeply-blue States will vote that way, as well, but all the swing States that flipped red in 2016 are likely to stay red this year.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Large and historically-blue States like California, New York, and Illinois are definitely going to vote for Sanders, or whoever the Democrat nominee will be. A few other deeply-blue States will vote that way, as well, but all the swing States that flipped red in 2016 are likely to stay red this year.


I agree. My expectation is that the swing states will win with more confident margins although I am not as confident about Wisconsin - will depend on strong rural vote.

If Sanders wins Democratic side you might as well declare Trump the winner. My electoral prediction Trump Vs Sanders ---Trump with 333 electoral votes. With Colorado to Trump, Maine to Trump, Minnesota to Trump, Nevada to Trump. The rest of the blue states to remain blue.

Let us not forget that Trump won the swing states he needed to win in 2016. So key states that need most attention and potential to swing back to Democrats:

Wisconsin (10 electoral)
Arizona (11 electoral)
Michigan (16 electoral)
Pennsylvania (20 electoral)
Florida (29 electoral)
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like Bloomberg, but I'm a little annoyed by Republicans (like Hannity, Rush, etc) pandering to their base by taking his comments out of context and pretending that he insulted farmers and factory workers. What he said may have sounded a bit insensitive, but that doesn't make it false. He was comparing industries: agriculture, manufacturing, and information technology. Clearly, being a farmer or factory worker can be hard work--and in today's society, even very technical--but on the whole, jobs in the Information Age are going to take more specialized skills and education than your typical farm job or factory worker. That's not a controversial thing to say, and if Trump had said it, people like Hannity would be defending him instead of pretending that farmers were insulted. Think of all the insensitive and/or apparently ignorant things that Trump has said which his supporters have defended, and compare that to Bloomberg's statement. If we expect people to hear the nuance in Trump saying, "I'm sure many illegal immigrants are good people," when talking about many of them also being criminals, then we have to give Bloomberg the say benefit of doubt and not have kneejerk reactions to his statements. I thought we liked people who said bold, politically incorrect--but still correct--things.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is the job of talking heads to stir up the listening audience and get them to harrumph about something. In another few days we will all forget about Bloomberg's statements about farmers.

Warren, despite claiming to have studied law, does not understand NDAs. Bloomberg tells a joke inappropriate for work, someone files an HR complaint, it goes to arbitration, and the lawyers present the subject with an NDA that says "we will pay you x and then both parties agree never to speak of it publicly". Once the recipient signs the NDA and they get the money, the NDA is in effect. If, as she claims, she can release these people from their NDAs (which I highly doubt, since she is not licensed to practice law in New York), they would have to pay back the money.

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