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Official 2020 Presidential Prognostication Thread
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think there will be a Trump landslide, but I am pretty sure he will win.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We shall see, as it's all supposition at this point.

The Dow finished up nearly 1,300 points today. The media's attempt at overblowing COVID-19 seems to be failing, which is good for everyone. With a strong economy and all the various trade deals falling in line, Trump's only enemy is himself now.

Biden is one major gaffe away from being irrelevant.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That remains to be seen. I think many DONT want a socialist on the Democrat side and they will stay home or do a write in. I think this will be similar to the last election, with the big cities going for Bernie (assuming he is the candidate) and the rest of America will go to Trump. I say this because in practicality, a voter abstaining or writing in a non-candidate, is the same as a vote for Trump.

I don't think it will be as close as some are saying.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again, we're still early in primary season. If Bernie becomes the nominee, how many employees of Capital One, BB&T, Wells Fargo, or any other large financial institution are going to vote for him knowing that he wants to eliminate their employer? Moreover, the media will be forced to report on his hare-brained ideas with not a scintilla of an idea how they're going to be paid for.

Bernie's voters are going to vote for Bernie. If he's not the nominee, they'll either stay home or vote Trump. They probably won't turn out for Biden, as he's about as exciting as drying paint (unless he's stuffing his foot in his mouth or sniffing kids), and they definitely won't turn out for Bloomberg.

Face it, the three people who have a shot are those three. Anyone who's a Bernie voter is at best ambivalent about Biden and loathes Bloomberg. Anyone who's a Biden voter might go to the other(s), but they're going to do it while holding their noses. Anyone who's a Bloomberg voter might tip to Biden, but wouldn't go anywhere near Bernie.

On top of that, there's several large pachyderms in the room. The three contenders are all white. They're all straight. They're all men. And they're all old. Bernie and Mike are both 78, Joe's 77. They're all effectively one-term presidents. Trump's a relatively spry 73 and can't run again.

Any of the three has got an enormous uphill battle once the convention is over, and that's assuming that one of them gets the nomination in the first round of voting. Factor in the record-breaking turnout for Trump in the primaries, where he's running unopposed, and it's landslide season.

Zara's right, there's history of underestimating Trump, and he's come out on top every single time.



The Democrats need to be careful what they wish for with a brokered convention.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah so--Buttigieg got the same call Klobuchar did, which is why he is also now supporting Biden. Biden also walked out Robert Francis at the end of a rally in Dallas and pretty much pledged to make him "gun czar". Pete and Amy will get Cabinet posts, as I noted.

When Sanders fails to get a majority before Milwaukee and when they have a brokered convention that anoints Biden, Sanders supporters will leave the Party permanently, fracturing it and they may even vote for Trump out of spite. Once it goes brokered, 2020 will make 1968 look like a weekend picnic.

Biden couldn't even cite the meat of the Declaration of Independence before Super Thursday. That's two more.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:

If Bloomberg wins Democrats will have to decide if they're willing to vote for a Republican billionaire who has a terrible record on race and a history of being a misogynist. A man who bought his way into the race, and has a history of spending his fortune in order to tell others how to live. He's a terrible debater, gets very little crossover votes, loses the progressives entirely, and mainstream Democrats hate him.


Wow, sounds familiar somehow... Very Happy

So...uh...what's a landslide in the US? 52.5%? Wink

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People thinking there will be a Trump landslide better get out and vote. We all know what happened with Hillary in 2016.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avatar wrote:


So...uh...what's a landslide in the US? 52.5%? Wink

--A


Apparently.

I mean, I get why people in 2016 thought Trump won in a landslide against Hillary. The electoral map was pretty red, especially when you look at it by counties. Still, I don't think it qualifies as a landslide because of the electoral point count not being enough of a disparity.

If you want to see a landslide, look at the Reagan v Mondale election of 1984.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
I mean, I get why people in 2016 thought Trump won in a landslide against Hillary. The electoral map was pretty red, especially when you look at it by counties. Still, I don't think it qualifies as a landslide because of the electoral point count not being enough of a disparity.

If you want to see a landslide, look at the Reagan v Mondale election of 1984.
The electoral map is all that matters, as that's the method we use to elect presidents. Trump's margin of 56.5% of the electoral votes doesn't quite qualify. 323 electoral votes is well within Trump's grasp this time, and at a 60% margin would qualify as a landslide.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this time, CNN's calling NC and VA for Biden, VT for Bernie.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Biden took Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. Sanders took California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont. Maine and Texas are still too close to call definitively. In the pledged delegate count Biden has surged ahead of Sanders 393 to 308.

Elizabeth Warren came in third in her home State. The Democrat campaign is now a two-person race. All Biden has to do now is not gaffefuck himself, go to a brokered convention, and sit back while the entrenched Democrat Powers that Be anoint him.

It looks like even Democrat voters don't want Democrat Socialism, Bernie. I would say "better luck next time" but I am uncertain if there will be a next time for you.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't it reassuring in uncertain times when normality reasserts itself so firmly?

So, despite all previous signs to the possible contrary, November's death match ideologically driven show down will be between:-

In the red corner, a 70+ year old uber-rich, uber-privileged gaffe-prone white male, who's been impeached for alleged wrongdoings in relation to Ukraine...

...and in the blue corner, a 70+ year old uber-rich, uber-privileged gaffe-prone white male, who by the same application of justification should be impeached for alleged wrongdoings in relation to Ukraine.

Nothing to see here... move along. Normal service has been resumed.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bloomberg is out and backing Biden. Hashi, you were on the money.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DoctorGamgee wrote:
Bloomberg is out and backing Biden. Hashi, you were on the money.


Every now and then I get something right. Mr. Green See my signature.

I was wrong about Gabbard, though--she has more balls than most of the men running against her because she hasn't quit yet.

Incidentally, this election will be unlike any other we have had before. Democrats are not necessarily voting for Biden; instead, they must vote for the person he chooses as his VP running mate because that person will have to take over after only a year or two when Biden becomes unable to discharge the duties of his office and the 25th Amendment kicks in.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since I think the chances of his winning are pretty small, it's unlikely to be an issue. Very Happy

I would experience no small degree of schadenfreude should I be mistaken, but that's purely because I find Trump odious on a personal level, and I would find his ranting about rigged elections and fraud and Russian collusion afterwards humorous.

I have no realistic expectation of being able to enjoy such a vicarious pleasure though. Very Happy

[Edit: Not that the Democrats won't do the same thing though, but it will be less funny to me because I don't have particularity strong feelings about them either way.]

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam's predictions by candidate: UPDATED

Wow! what a week! A lot of changes since I first predicted

Michael Bennet - drops out after Iowa and before New Hampshire WRONG --dropped out right after New Hampshire

Joe Biden - stays in until the end --- Right so far

Michael Bloomberg - will run late in campaign possibly even to the end hoping for brokered convention ----WRONG dropped out after Super Tuesday. I way overestimated how much his money would play in votes. Also my prediction was before his horrible debate performances.

Pete Buttgieg- will run late in campaign will drop out late March --- WRONG dropped out before Super Tuesday - I imagined him gaining more traction but that never materialized.

Tulsi Gabbard - effectively ends campaign after Iowa but does not officially end campaign until after Nevada and before South Carolina --- WAY WRONG! --- only other candidate besides Sanders and Biden still in race. Tulsi - ummm not sure where your thoughts are - but you have 0.00000000000000001 chance so yeah.....

Amy Klobucher - ends campaign after Super Tuesday 3/3 (so probably by 3/7)--- WRONG ended right before Super Tuesday.

Deval Patrick - huh? didn't even know he was still in race - anyways - drops out after Iowa and before New Hampshire ---WRONG dropped out after New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders - stays in until the end --- Right so far

Tom Steyer - is stubborn and ends campaign after Super Tuesday so probably by 3/5 - but Should end campaign after Iowa. --WRONG - He decided to end campaign before Super Tuesday so kudos to him for not being as stubborn as I thought.

Elizabeth Warren - stays in until the end unless she sees little chance of winning and pulls out in later months to give Biden clearer victory over Sanders ---- WRONG - dropped out after Super Tuesday and so far not endorsing anyone but based on reports I have read would not be surprised her endorse Sanders.

Andrew Yang - is stubborn and does not exit until after Super Tuesday so probably by 3/5 - but should end campaign after Iowa. ----WRONG - drops out after New Hampshire.

So...lets see how close I get.


So not too close LOL ahh well all for fun. The biggest head scratcher is Tulsi Gabbard still in race with only 2 delegates. I don't even know what to say about that besides wow!
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On another note....

Don't let the media fool you to think Biden already has insurmountable lead.

Did you know that:
California has 77 unallocated delegates and California went mostly for Sanders
Colorado has 27 unallocated delegates and Colorado went mostly for Sanders
AND Utah has 13 unallocated delegates and Utah went mostly for Sanders.

That is 117 delegates that Sanders could tighten this race up quite a bit.

Also FYI based on what I have read based on how California counts ballots it could be weeks(yes weeks) to finalize their count and thus their final delegates. Not as sure about Colorado and Utah did not have enough time yet to research those two states.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lol if Biden ... doesnt ...

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gaffefuck himself


Hysterical Hysterical Hysterical

You just know he will lol 😂
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read a lot today bemoaning the fact that it's two old white guys vying for the nomination. Funny, but Tulsi's still in it, and she's not only a woman, but she's "of color" and a Hindu. She checks a lot of demographic boxes, yet the DNC treats her like she's got Ebola.

Sure seems to me that Joe and Bernie ought to quit the race and throw their support behind Tulsi, who - if supported by the party - could actually stand a chance of beating Trump. And what an awesome debate that would be.


Warren's blaming misogyny for her shellacking rather than her wooden personality, inability to tell the truth about anything, and her terrible messaging. Warren is a legitimately smart woman who entrusted idiots to handle her campaign. She bungled it so badly that it could cost her her Senate seat.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
I read a lot today bemoaning the fact that it's two old white guys vying for the nomination. Funny, but Tulsi's still in it, and she's not only a woman, but she's "of color" and a Hindu. She checks a lot of demographic boxes, yet the DNC treats her like she's got Ebola.


Payback for voting "present" at impeachment.

Don't fret too much over predictions, samrw3--you were opertaing under logic and political campaigns often don't function that way.

Warren came in third in her own State. I concur--her Senate re-election prospects look worrisome at this point.

Skyweir, we have two new words now: gaffefuck and borkered (thanks to samrw3).

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