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North Korea needs to be put in check
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With NK and Trump - it's two f#%^* ed up crazy highly volatile, egotists, both unpredictable and to me that spells .. what all volatile, highly unstable elements .. inevitably mean ... and no good will come of it.

Yes diplomacy is key in situations like this - it'd be like me entering a highly volatile situation expecting a resolution by raising the volatility of the situation.

NK leader is unbelievably f^%#d up - he like his father and grandfather before him! Then to that add Trump, also f#%^^d head job perhaps slightly worse than his father before him. Idiot + idiot = shit storm. So what? The collateral damage that surrounds and is engulfed in that storm. The populations and infrastructure and economies of US states, North Korea, inevitably South Korea, the South Pacific, we're apparently going to be tagging along (being South Pacific ally), all military personnel involved ... the costs of war are immense. In my view avoiding this is in everyone's best interest.

Better to send a small team of 😏 Ninjas and take out the NK leadership. No one will lose any sleep over it. The problem will be accurate targeting ... and intel. You'd want to take out him and a sizeable portion of his military government. 🤔
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
With NK and Trump - it's two f#%^* ed up crazy highly volatile, egotists, both unpredictable and to me that spells .. what all volatile, highly unstable elements .. inevitably mean ... and no good will come of it.
Some good has already come of it: Trump's "volatile" rhetoric got NK to back down on the Guam threat.

Skyweir wrote:
Yes diplomacy is key in situations like this - it'd be like me entering a highly volatile situation expecting a resolution by raising the volatility of the situation.
Diplomacy got us where we are now. It has had no effect in curbing NK's bellicosity.

I think it has been precisely our predictability that has enabled NK's nuke program. Because we've been perfectly "nonvolatile," they don't fear us. The threat of annihilation doesn't work if everyone thinks we're too scared to use our weapons. In this regard, a little more unpredictability will make our enemies uncertain.

Not every problem can be solved by being nice and talking, much less a situation where a madman is threatening us with nukes. You already admit that Kim Jong-in is fucked up. What makes you think you can negotiate with someone like that?
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I completely disagree. Volatility does not stabilise volatility. NK has been engaging with numerous states and has been convinced to back down. That is diplomacy - I do not think for a second Trumps counter-threat is responsible for this cooling of heels.

Everyone knows .. no every intelligent rational thinking person knows engaging the US in military action is suicidal at best. Someone has convinced NK Trump of that known fact. Presumably SK had a part to play as they would be the first to be devastated by collateral fire.

I hold to my ninjas 😏 ... they could get some "good" done. Did it with Bin Laden, unfortunately in his case martyred him, but KJ will not be martyred. His people are utterly oppressed and suffering .. could be a win-win all round.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
...every intelligent rational thinking person knows engaging the US in military action is suicidal at best.


And that's why I tend to think it's all posturing...they talk a big game, but the chances of them actually doing something are remote...they just want to feel like they mater, and as soon as they make threats like that, everybody suddenly pays attention. Even negative attention is better than no attention, y'know.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I cautiously agree Av - but KJU brings his (seemingly common these days in gla although politics) disturbing level of unpredictability and crazy ass egotist-ness 😜🤡😜🤡😜 ..
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saddam Hussein is all the example any country needs of the wisdom of actually scaling down ones WMD development in the face of world demands that one does so; Kim Jong Un has said that dismantling his nuclear weapons development program is absolutely not on the table for negotiation - and given aforementioned example this is perhaps the most rational position he could take - it's quite possibly the only thing that could save him. He's not going to act on his threats to start chucking missiles about, but he sure as hell ain't going to put his gun down either. Sanctions may at least given time, make him more amenable to search for a compromise solution.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I completely disagree. Volatility does not stabilise volatility.
Of course it does. That's exactly what MAD (mutually assured destruction) is. There is nothing more volatile than two countries creating, testing, and aiming 14,000 ICBMs at each other. And yet it has created a stalemate between Russia and the US. However, that's an inherently unstable equilibrium, because all it would take is an accidental launch, a madman, or even an asteroid to set off a chain reaction. But it's an equilibrium nonetheless.

I think it's better to talk about personalities and strength, rather than nebulous concepts like "volatility." Perhaps in nature we don't see volatility cancelling volatility, but human personalities and the psychology of bullying is entirely different.



peter wrote:
Saddam Hussein is all the example any country needs of the wisdom of actually scaling down ones WMD development in the face of world demands that one does so; Kim Jong Un has said that dismantling his nuclear weapons development program is absolutely not on the table for negotiation - and given aforementioned example this is perhaps the most rational position he could take - it's quite possibly the only thing that could save him. He's not going to act on his threats to start chucking missiles about, but he sure as hell ain't going to put his gun down either. Sanctions may at least given time, make him more amenable to search for a compromise solution.
It wasn't the lack of nukes that caused Saddam's downfall. He was attacking his neighbors, destabilizing the Middle East, and trying to gain control of 1/5 of the world's oil supply by controlling the Straits of Hormuz.

If Jong Un attacks any of his neighbors, his nukes will not save him. He will be utterly obliterated for the fact of having them, because we will not be able to risk merely a partial destruction of his regime. How is that the most rational position?

The most rational position would be for him to stop being a mass murdering tyrant, give up his weapons, and emulate the wildly successful examples of his neighbors, Japan and South Korea.

(Honestly, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills sometimes, reading these posts!
Laughing )
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And because of that, he won't attack any of his neighbours.

What his nukes save him from is being attacked by the west, because if he does get attacked, then he will lash out at anybody within reach, because it won't matter any more.

As long as nobody attacks him, he doesn't dare attack anybody.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zarathustra wrote:


(Honestly, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills sometimes, reading these posts!
Laughing )


Methink you might need those crazy pills! You wouldn't use gasoline to put out a fire! That's an analogy for volatility cancelling out volatility, or hostility cancelling out hostility.

MAD is a no-win outcome. So basically you would be condoning any and all nation states acquiring nuclear capability - to avoid being dominated/invaded/ to prevent extermination. Under MAD principles that's the only answer to prevent a larger power strike.

Situation response needs to be diplomacy. MAD is the solution only to utter chaos and as the term suggests MUTUALLY assured destruction. No winning, no passing GO, no collecting booty! That is exactly how everything will get out of hand!

Not diplomacy - is like trying to extinguish a fire with gasoline!

I think Av makes good point - that's where my hope lies.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Me thinks anybody who thinks a major nuclear exchange is winable
is coo-coo.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's why we stick to minor nuclear exchanges! Wink
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ur Dead wrote:
Me thinks anybody who thinks a major nuclear exchange is winable
is coo-coo.


A nuclear war is winnable--or at least survivable--if you sequester a lot of your people in large underground vaults.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Ur Dead wrote:
Me thinks anybody who thinks a major nuclear exchange is winable
is coo-coo.


A nuclear war is winnable--or at least survivable--if you sequester a lot of your people in large underground vaults.


That's an interesting point to make 😏 which would require all potential targets to have immense underground installations. How many of these installations exist? They would have to be multiple vaults, with closed ventilation systems, food and resources, sufficient to sustain a majority of a nation states population.

If wishes were fishes...

This is not even close to proof positive that nuclear holocaust will result in a clear winner. MAD .. you raised it .. MAD is MAD 🤡🤡🤡🤡
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You didn't click the link, did you?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL



Skyweir wrote:

MAD is a no-win outcome. So basically you would be condoning any and all nation states acquiring nuclear capability - to avoid being dominated/invaded/ to prevent extermination. Under MAD principles that's the only answer to prevent a larger power strike...

...I think Av makes good point - that's where my hope lies.


But that is MAD. (Even though in this case it wouldn't be, but that's the principle.)

It might be no-win, but it's also no-lose. That's why the whole cold war happened.

If everybody has nukes, then everybody will be too afraid to use them, since using them will lead to others doing so in retaliation.

That's what MAD is for. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If everybody has nukes, then everybody will be too afraid to use them,



Sorry wrong..

ISIS or al Qaeda.
All you do is hit a small country, pin it on a country that has nukes and a beef with the small country and the rest go crazy.

Game over man Game Over.

The problem with a minor or even a major exchange is:
Radiation that lingers from the bombs at 24,000 years.. Nope.. easy.

Those bombs do effect the ozone layer. Enough of them then we get the hard core stuff from our good pal.. the sun. Several hundred thousand years to a couple of million for the ozone to replenish itself is the answer..
Can't stay down there for that long until DNA mutation takes hold.
There are gonna be some strange looking cockroaches running around by then.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're absolutely right Ur Dead! There would be no clear winners LOL in all-out conflict.

Av - MAD was a concept that evolved during the Cold War. Basically as a cautionary DISINCENTIVE to the key nuclear (then US & Russia) powers engaging in a nuclear strike against each other. The point was to avoid that outcome lol

Talk of underground installations to preserve a nations populus, or even the most part of it, is fantasy not reality. And Hashi if your hope is in their existence, you'd better start digging! 😬

And if a party used dirty bombs - the outcome would be even worse!
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ur Dead wrote:
Quote:
If everybody has nukes, then everybody will be too afraid to use them,



Sorry wrong..

ISIS or al Qaeda.
All you do is hit a small country, pin it on a country that has nukes and a beef with the small country and the rest go crazy.


Ok, fair enough. I was talking specifically about nation states, not terrorist organisations. For them, a lose-lose situation is a win. Very Happy

Skyweir wrote:

Talk of underground installations to preserve a nations populus, or even the most part of it, is fantasy not reality.


Uh... Very Happy
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Bunkers For All

Switzerland is unique in having enough nuclear fallout shelters to accommodate its entire population, should they ever be needed....


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well good for Swiss .. I wonder what the same status is in the US, or even here. Australia has nothing like this... typical Aussie approach "she'll be right mate" ... mmm 😂🙄😂

I am surprised though at this - kudos to the Swiss. Colour me impressed. From reading that article no other country comes close to accommodating all of their population though .. but it was heartening to read this:

"Outside Europe, fallout shelters are common in China, South Korea, Singapore, India and elsewhere, but nowhere does coverage exceed 50 per cent."

Well at least some of the South Koreans can take refuge should things escalate NK vs US.

This was concerning though:

"In Israel, there are shelters for two-thirds of the population, but in many cases these structures are simply concrete shells with openings, therefore not completely fallout-proof."

These will not protect its occupants from radiation. You'd need a sealed ventilation system - air is the main problem and the depth of the "cement shell" would be another 🤢
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
You wouldn't use gasoline to put out a fire! That's an analogy for volatility cancelling out volatility, or hostility cancelling out hostility.
Firefighters literally use fire to put out fires all the time. It's called a firebreak.

Skyweir wrote:
MAD is a no-win outcome. So basically you would be condoning any and all nation states acquiring nuclear capability - to avoid being dominated/invaded/ to prevent extermination. Under MAD principles that's the only answer to prevent a larger power strike.
I'm not advocating nuclear proliferation. Only a madman would enter into a MAD situation with a madman! That's why we have to avoid NK going "full nuclear" at all costs, including some tough, bellicose language (which was the source of this tangent, Trump's "fire and fury" comments criticized as too volatile). Do you really think that Jong Un is going to refrain from building an ICBM that can hit us with nothing more than negotiation?? He's on the verge right now!

Your position--negotiation without any threats--is the one that will lead to us being in a MAD relationship with NK, where only the threat of our nukes will deter a madman. That's where we're heading. I think ANY RHETORIC WHATSOEVER by Trump is justified in that scenario.
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