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Manchester Grieves
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Rawedge Rim
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Before we get to0 silly on this vein;

How many Japanese do we have to have before we have Yakusa or Yakusa wannabes?

Or Chinese for the Triad?

How many whites before we end up with Hell Angels? Or the Aryan Nation?

How many blacks before we end up with the Crips and the Bloods?

How many Hispanics before M13?
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avatar wrote:
Agree with Cail.

Zarathustra wrote:
This is an immigration problem.


The guy responsible for this bombing in Manchester wasn't an immigrant.

--A
He was the son of an immigrant. The problem is that he is a member of a class of immigrants who refuse to assimilate into a foreign society, which has ripple effects for generations. Virtually every terrorist attack in America and Europe in the last 15 years has been done from an immigrant or the children of recent immigrants.

I'm not saying that we should stop all immigration. I'm saying that we should be more selective, without worrying about political correctness. Immigration is a legal term. It has a legal process. It doesn't mean, "let everyone in." There is nothing wrong with making sure that the people we let in share our values, love our country, and intend to contribute positively, rather than prey upon us. This is what a rational immigration policy should do.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rawedge Rim wrote:
Before we get to0 silly on this vein;

How many Japanese do we have to have before we have Yakusa or Yakusa wannabes?

Or Chinese for the Triad?

How many whites before we end up with Hell Angels? Or the Aryan Nation?

How many blacks before we end up with the Crips and the Bloods?

How many Hispanics before M13?


Well, the same line of thought does apply to all groups in question--if you consider a large enough group of people, at some point the likelihood of someone being a member of a dangerous sub-group is greater than 50% (more likely than not) regardless of how unlikely it is that any specific individual is a member of that dangerous sub-group.

Zarathustra's claim is accurate--virtually all modern (in this context "modern" means "post-9/11") terror attacks are the result of new immigrants or the immediate children of immigrants.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:


Well, the same line of thought does apply to all groups in question--if you consider a large enough group of people, at some point the likelihood of someone being a member of a dangerous sub-group is greater than 50% (more likely than not) regardless of how unlikely it is that any specific individual is a member of that dangerous sub-group.


That doesn't make sense to me. The size of such "dangerous sub groups" is never large enough that there is a greater than 50% chance of any given member of a "main" group being part of it, surely?

And wouldn't the chance decrease as the size of the main group increased?

Not following your logic there...

--A
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We are all part of the world's most dangerous sub-group - it's called humanity! Wink
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL Well, apart from that... Very Happy

--A
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avatar wrote:
Hashi Lebwohl wrote:


Well, the same line of thought does apply to all groups in question--if you consider a large enough group of people, at some point the likelihood of someone being a member of a dangerous sub-group is greater than 50% (more likely than not) regardless of how unlikely it is that any specific individual is a member of that dangerous sub-group.


That doesn't make sense to me. The size of such "dangerous sub groups" is never large enough that there is a greater than 50% chance of any given member of a "main" group being part of it, surely?

And wouldn't the chance decrease as the size of the main group increased?

Not following your logic there...

--A


Binomial distribution.

Let a = probability that a random person is a terrorist

Let us presume that a = 1/10000, so p(not a terrorist) = 9999/10000. If you let in 10,000 people, then the probability that none of them are a terrorist is

(10,000 C 0) * (9999/10000)^10000 = 0.36786, which translates to a 63.2% chance that at least one of them is a terrorist.

That presumptive value for a is probably too high but the logic is sound--no matter how low the probability, if you let in enough people from that group you will let in one. The question, then, becomes: is it worth keeping out everyone on the chance that one gets through? In general the answer is "no" but some people view the situation differently.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah, ok, the chance that at least one person being a member of the group, not of any specific individual being one.

And yes, I'm sure "a" is much lower.

Struggling to find numbers on that actually.

Best looking source I've found is 3 years old and estimates 184,000 terrorists spread over 51 "Foreign Terrorist Organizations" the US recognised at the time.

If we generously double that to account for the age and "changing" politics, we'd get 368,000 members of terrorist organisations in the world. (And that includes the IRA and the ETA and guys like that).

Out of the world population of 7 billion, wouldn't that make "a" more like 0.0052571%? That's like 1 out of every...uh...I don't know how to do that calculation. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the problems is that there is no definite line (except by artificial definition) between what is or is not a terrorist. Z has pointed out that while few in a group may be active terrorists, the sympathy toward their activities may be widespread; this provides a fluctuating envelope of involvement of different degrees and a constant pool from which new activists can/will be drawn as circumstances demand. Thus the route to prevention has to include efforts to prevent radicalisation at its source - a proseletysing away from the extremism that fuels the terror, actively engaged in by the very community from which it stems itself.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like drone strikes. Wink

--A
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