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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
hrm....when the first hints of coronavirus were hitting the media here, Trump ordered travel restrictions from China, which resulted in him being called "xenophobic" and "racist" by the New York Times.
Which was an incredibly smart thing to do. Granted, the hype around COVID-19 is completely overblown, but anything to blunt it is a Good Thing.


And by "overblown", I mean that 40,000 people have died from the flu in the last 6 months, and less than 20 have died from COVID-19. This is not a big deal.


Way more than 20 have died from COVID-19, and China misrepresented both the prevalence and mortality rate associated with the disease. Something with a 3.4+% mortality rate is hardly comparable to the flu, especially for something so contagious. This disease is worse than SARS and MERS because it has a good balance between mortality rate and infectiousity. If the mortality rate is too high, the virus can quickly burn out before it can spread to new hosts.

You should all be pretty worried about it, especially if you're elderly.

For comparison, seasonal flu mortality rate is about 0.1%. COVID-19 is about 3.4%. That is 34 times that of flu. Mortality rates of COVID-19 are far higher in elderly patients.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
hrm....when the first hints of coronavirus were hitting the media here, Trump ordered travel restrictions from China, which resulted in him being called "xenophobic" and "racist" by the New York Times.
Which was an incredibly smart thing to do. Granted, the hype around COVID-19 is completely overblown, but anything to blunt it is a Good Thing.


And by "overblown", I mean that 40,000 people have died from the flu in the last 6 months, and less than 20 have died from COVID-19. This is not a big deal.


Way more than 20 have died from COVID-19, and China misrepresented both the prevalence and mortality rate associated with the disease. Something with a 3.4+% mortality rate is hardly comparable to the flu, especially for something so contagious. This disease is worse than SARS and MERS because it has a good balance between mortality rate and infectiousity. If the mortality rate is too high, the virus can quickly burn out before it can spread to new hosts.

You should all be pretty worried about it, especially if you're elderly.

For comparison, seasonal flu mortality rate is about 0.1%. COVID-19 is about 3.4%. That is 34 times that of flu. Mortality rates of COVID-19 are far higher in elderly patients.
I see you've bought into the hype.

19 Americans have died. China's a bad place to look for your statistics, instead look at the controlled environments on the ships, then factor in the fact that people are in close quarters and breathing the same air.

This is simply not anything to be extra worried about.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:25 am    Post subject: Covid-19 Reply with quote

Time perhaps to start a thread designated to discuss this difficult topic. The coronavirus pandemic seems to be gathering pace and beginning to have serious destabilising effects on the world economy and general well-being of the countries affected. Italy, the country with the highest incidence to date in Europe, is in a state of effective lockdown, with almost the entire population under instructions to remain inside unless on urgent need to be outside and then only with the appropriate documentation in hand. In the UK we are not yet as far advanced into either the disease cycle or the measures to prevent it's spread, or at least slow it down to the point where the dangerous winter months (in respect of our health system's ability to cope) are passed. Panic buying is however emptying our supermarket shelves of food and essentials, as people prepare for extended periods of isolation within their homes.

As yet there is no telling whether this challenge is going to peter out in the manner of the Sars or H1N1 viruses before it, or whether this is truly going to be the fabled 'disease X' of epidemiologists worst nightmare. But irrespective of this lack of knowledge, that the disease is going to hit the world economy hard is a given. Already flights are leaving airports nearly empty, mass gatherings for sports events and other activities the world over are being cancelled and pictures of the main tourist sites of the world - the Coliseum in Rome and other similar sites - lying eerily empty fill our screens. Locally the impact is also being felt as events are cancelled, holidays being put on hold and a general sense of 'battoning down the hatches' in preparation for the worst pervades our communities.

Our leaders make reassuring noises as and where they can - Donald Trump is apparently stubbornly refusing to stop shaking hands with people he meets on his travels - but in truth they as much as we, do not know where or how far this is going. On a personal level I'm fairly philosophical about it. I'm in my sixties (not a good age in terms of the predictive outcome of contracting the virus) but I've lived a good life. I'm not going to be silly about this - but neither am I going to let it define my actions against all other things in the weeks and months to come.

But this is big stuff any way you look at it. It's time for us to start talking about it. Just how well placed is the world to deal with a shock to its system on the scale of a global viral pandemic that kills millions?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They are sending troops to Rochelle, NY for enforcement of a 1-sq-mile quarantine around a synagogue. The governor of NY is claiming that there is no martial law being imposed, though.

The reactions are kind of scary.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TOTAL over-reaction.

Lets put this into some perspective and from a US pov. In the 2018 Flu season 45 million people were infected with the flu. 61,000 died from the flu that year. Where was the panic?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While a valid point, this is different from a seasonal disease that kills people every year. Diabetes and car crashes kill people every year. However, this is an event that isn't part of the annual cycle that has a potential to kill a lot of people.

For context, over half a million people worldwide died from swine flu. This disease is an order of magnitude worse than swine flu and seasonal flu in mortality rate. We have a huge elderly population. This disease spreads like wildfire through communities and has an 8-15% mortality rate for people over the age of 60, not to mention that it's even higher if they have chronic diseases like hypertension or diabetes. Do the math to see how many people could potentially die in high-risk populations.

Also, just a little factoid here that should scare people a bit: at any time in the country there are around 300,000 beds available. From the Italian data, there are a lot more people who have to have hospitalization and/or ICU. China had a healthier population, and if I am not mistaken, a younger one too. Also, dirty scumbag commies fudged their data to downplay the virus so DO NOT GO OFF OF WHAT THEY SAID.

In a few weeks we should have a clearer picture, but do not, and I must repeat: DO NOT dismiss this just yet.

In other news, the WHO finally declares covid-19 a pandemic.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
While a valid point, this is different from a seasonal disease that kills people every year. Diabetes and car crashes kill people every year. However, this is an event that isn't part of the annual cycle that has a potential to kill a lot of people.

For context, over half a million people worldwide died from swine flu. This disease is an order of magnitude worse than swine flu and seasonal flu in mortality rate. We have a huge elderly population. This disease spreads like wildfire through communities and has an 8-15% mortality rate for people over the age of 60, not to mention that it's even higher if they have chronic diseases like hypertension or diabetes. Do the math to see how many people could potentially die in high-risk populations.

Also, just a little factoid here that should scare people a bit: at any time in the country there are around 300,000 beds available. From the Italian data, there are a lot more people who have to have hospitalization and/or ICU. China had a healthier population, and if I am not mistaken, a younger one too. Also, dirty scumbag commies fudged their data to downplay the virus so DO NOT GO OFF OF WHAT THEY SAID.

In a few weeks we should have a clearer picture, but do not, and I must repeat: DO NOT dismiss this just yet.

In other news, the WHO finally declares covid-19 a pandemic.


Still an over-reaction. In context of the US alone, just 12K deaths from swine flu. WAY less than the normal flu. Now lets look worldwide. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year. The higher rates are always with the elderly and the infirm, especially those with pre-existing respiratory illness (COPD).

So really the fear is of the unknown.

And the WHO in one statement caused another Global selloff in the stock market. WTG WHO
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Threat is very real and very dangerous..
Some preventive measures now will prevent draconian measures later.
Sars and Ebola never came close to this infection rate.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with SB in that there is no value in panic.

Yes Nano it is a threat to be taking seriously. I think that people are taking it generally very seriously... to my mind to the point of panic. We have seen rash behaviours, panic stockpiling, people cancelling OS holidays .. tbh I dont think Id travel OS right now either ... people have boycotted Chinese restaurants lol 😂 🤦‍♀️

Etc

All knee jerk reactionary responses ... washing hands well, good personal hygiene are likely the best ways to avoid catching COVID 19.

I read today that Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have both tested positive and are being isolated while they recover.

The good news is people are recovering. A small baby in China that tested positive recovered.

The problem with COVID 19 is its lengthy incubation period and the fact that you can reinfect. Hope they get on top of it soon.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/tom-hanks-coronavirus-actor-and-wife-rita-wilson-test-positive-in-australia
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guarantee that ur-Nanothnir knows more about infectious diseases than you and me put together. I concur--elderly people, those with chronic conditions (especially respiratory ones), and those with compromised immune systems should be taking every precaution possible; those of us not in those high-risk groups should be cautious but not panic. Anyway, we have a thread for corona--let's pick it up there.

A Clinton-appointed judge on a Federal bench thought she would try and criticize Chief Justice Roberts. Sounds like someone needs to be censured--I would say "impeach her" but the House won't, given that she leans Left.

AOC says that avoiding Chinese restaurants is racist. I would say "illogical" but it certainly isn't racist.

Ilham Omar married that guy she claimed not to be having an affair with. Yeah, okay, whatever. At least she didn't marry another brother or a cousin.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Part of the reason that the COVID-19 virus is so deadly is that it's a new virus that is affecting an immunologically naive population (literally everybody in the world). It can reinfect because of a high mutation rate, so it is a clever virus that can evade our immune system. This also makes vaccine development difficult.

HIV doesn't have a vaccine because it mutates so rapidly.

Viruses can exchange genetic information to each other (in a colloquial sense I suppose you could think of it like sex) in a process called reassortment. The genetic code can make proteins slightly different, so it would be difficult for the immune system to catch up with it, etc.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In one of the more bemusing examples of human illogicality, sales of the popular Corona beer brand have apparently taken a dramatic hit. There's people for you!

But irrespective of the human cost,as Av and I have commented elsewhere, the economic hit from this is likely to be the biggest area of fallout (and that is not in any way to downplay the human cost...... and economic hits have a human cost as well). This is likely going to tip the world into a period of global recession, or at the very least give the system a profound shaking up. Stock markets are falling the world over and in the UK business rates for small businesses were scrapped for a year in yesterday's budget; an attempt to shore them up against the predicted hit they are going to take from both loss of trade and the loss of productivity resulting from employee sickness (estimated to run at around twenty percent of the nation's workforce at the peak of the epidemic's curve). Trust me - the UK Chancellor does not exhibit this kind of largesse out of the kindness of his heart, or indeed in a knee-jerk fashion.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see that President Trump has today temporarily suspended travel to the US from the 26 countries of the Schengen free travel zone of Europe. The UK and Republic of Ireland are not included in this area and currently will not be included in the suspension. Probably a sensible precaution given the scale of the problems in Italy - but a huge decision no less and reflective of the seriousness with which the threat is being taken in the US.

Dark times indeed!

Sad
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
I guarantee that ur-Nanothnir knows more about infectious diseases than you and me put together.
I guarantee he does not. The mortality rate is falling daily as testing gets better and becomes more prevalent.

This is bad form the old and the infirm. This is not bad for anyone else, other than the odd person who reacts badly to it. This is a bad cold strain, not Captain Tripps.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The scammers are out in force... Had one call warning me not to use
the net.. because the Covid-19 could be caught by using it...
There isn't a rack nasty enough for these scammers.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
I see that President Trump has today temporarily suspended travel to the US from the 26 countries of the Schengen free travel zone of Europe. The UK and Republic of Ireland are not included in this area and currently will not be included in the suspension. Probably a sensible precaution given the scale of the problems in Italy - but a huge decision no less and reflective of the seriousness with which the threat is being taken in the US.

Dark times indeed!

Sad


RIP economy.

It seems the authorities in the US are really spooked about this virus. Maybe they have information that isn't available to the general public?

I mean, how long until there is widespread quarantine enforced by armed soldiers and martial law? I mean...the NY governor sent the Nat'l Guard to Rochelle to enforce a 1-sq-mile quarantine around a synagogue that had a few infected people.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This all depends on how you measure things and what stats you want to use as your yardstick.

If you're talking about overall mortality rate, then at current estimated levels, COVID-19 is looking at around the 2-4% level, which makes it somewhere between 2 and 12 times worse than standard winter flu.

It's not a patch on either SARS (10 to 16% mortality rate) or MERS (34 to 40%) or H5N1 (50 to 55%).

However, it's clearly a lot more infectious and faster-spreading, so if you're looking at the number of overall likely deaths, COVID-19 is going to kill a whole heap more people - it's already racked up almost 5,000 attributable deaths in just a few months.

In comparison, SARS scored around 8,000 attributed deaths during the 2002-2004 outbreak, the three times more lethal MERS has only managed under 800 deaths since its identification in 2012 and the even more lethal H5N1 less than 500 deaths since 2003.

So, if you're going to get one of these four "worse than winter flu" viruses, COVID-19 is definitely the one to choose.

And the chances are that you will get it (courtesy of its fast and easy transmittability). but as everyone knows, it's unlikely to bother you much, unless you're an infant, or elderly and/or infirm.

I suspect that once the dust settles, we'll see a mortality rate for COVID of around 2 to 4%%, but a number of attributable global deaths creeping into the six figure range.

This is quite a good but vaguely macabre constantly updated scoreboard, if you're interested. It shows you a number of interesting metrics beyond mere infection and mortality numbers.

It's fascinating that confirmed infections per head of population are worst in Italy (206 per million), then South Korea (153 per million), then Norway (134), then Iran (120), then Denmark (116), then (Bahrain (114), then Switzerland (100). Every other country is (so far and based on official reporting) below 100 infections per million head of population.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump met with members of the Brazilian entourage not long ago...one of whom has now tested positive for coronavirus.

If cases do not stop spreading in the United States then rolling out the National Guard and restrictions on commonly-accepted freedoms will be implemented.

The wild roller coaster over at the stock indices....that is nothing but panic from the short-term and information-insufficient investors. Long-term investors and large hedge funds are still seeing "buy" opporutnities. The DOW has lost all the gains it had made in the last two years....but once this outbreak is over things will go back to normal and the people who buy now will make 10% profit, easily, even if they sell in the short term.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
I guarantee he does not.


I am curious how much formal medical training you have received, but I am not going to belabor the issue.

Joy Behar wants Trump to resign. Whatever. Can we cancel The View already?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote



Hmm
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