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Brexit - a quick resume of where we are.
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peter
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrew Neil pretty much summed it all up in his comment on The Week yesterday by saying that the Commons has essentially split into two waring factions while the government does anything and everything - and is prepared to accept any deal/conditions forced upon it, no matter how damaging or not in the countries interest - in order to stay in power.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
damaging or not in the countries interest - in order to stay in power.


Sounds like SNAFU... an exercise preform by politicians everywhere.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed 😬
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This week parliament has again the chance to implement Dominic Grieve's amendment to allow itself to perform it's constitutional right to instruct the government in the event of a no deal Brexit. Last week it failed to even vote to allow for a meaningful vote on the final deal (NB there is a notable difference here: Grieve's amendment directs the government on the general direction to pursue in the event of no deal, while the original amendment on the meaningful vote allowed MP's only to reject a deal they didn't like). May is understandably reticent to give parliament it's due degree of sovereignty over this issue - she has no majority in the House to command - but in any case has throughout her occupancy of No 10 been notoriously unwilling to cede any power to the legislature if it can be avoided (she had to be forced by the Courts to allow any vote on the Withdrawal Bill at all). Whether Parliament will assert it's authority or not however, remains to be seen. There is still cold feet about the possible ramifications of a government defeat while it is so vulnerable to being toppled and the thought of loosing their jobs is a powerful incentive to MP's to tow the line.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is it a slippery slope concern .. or is this constitutional right a one off intervention? If so I would think May would be glad to have the whole mess taken out of her hands.

Interesting times, for sure.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mmm....

Not a slippery slope thing I think; parliament is after all the legislature and the government the executive. It is the function of government to execute on the basis of instructions received from parliament. Normally it has significant freedom to do so as it sees fit, but on really important matters - the intervention in the Iraq war and non intervention in Syria are two examples that come to mind - it is not unusual for the government to seek approval from the House before it acts. There is however significant disagreement within both the government and parliament in general as to whether the current situation constitutes one of these situations. In the event of a no deal scenario the argument runs, the situation becomes so serious as to warrant input from parliament. May however does not agree with this and feels that on the basis of the mandate of the referendum result, the executive must be given the freedom to execute as it considers appropriate.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May gets another win by a small margin as, by use of a few tiny and pretty meaningless concessions she manages to slip past the post on the meaningful vote issue. She now has a pretty clear run at the Brexit end point of her choice, even as Tory potential rebels on both sides of the fence claim they still have room to stymie her if they choose. It's pretty clear however that they ain't going to - so it now remains to be seen if she can fudge her way past the EU negotiating team as she has done with parliament. I'd hazard a guess that they won't play ball quite so easily.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those "meaningless concessions" may have a bigger impact than
any of the major issues.
I always found the logistics to be the cog that allows the larger stuff to operate or hinder.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good point Ur Dead .. and its all about give and take.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well - the hard truths of Brexit reality were put on display this week when Airbus, a civil aviation manufacturer of commercial aircraft and large scale investor/employer in Britain announced publicly what it had been warning off in private for months, that as a result of Brexit uncertainty it would not be able to commit to future investment in the UK - a move likely to cost the country billions in the years to come. BMW followed suit and many other companies upon which huge swathes of our economy are, if not dependent, then highly advantaged by are likely to be feeling the same. David Davis the hard Brexiteer Minister for Leaving the EU responded by an interview in the leave favouring Daily Express headlined Our Glorious Future Outside the EU. Do these guys really think we are so stupid that we can be hoodwinked into ignoring a genuine problem that we face by a flashy hyperbolic headline in a paper that has ever been a right-wing tool since the first day it was published. Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see Airbus just playing politics on that. Or they are getting pressure from
the other EU members. How many of Airbus idea's are
patented under British law? And who did the inventing. Design patents are
important to the company and they like to keep control of those. If they threaten the UK will the lost of investments the the UK can play hardball
back. One is patent rights created by British citizens. A company like Airbus
would more likely make a deal than find it's operations in turmoil. Bad for business.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thing is, this is just the tip of a huge business iceberg where the uncertainty of our future position is causing foreign countries to re-evaluate their ongoing relationship with us. This is a genuine concern that deserves a genuine response, not Davis's flippant refusal to address the issue in the form of a cod display of optimism.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Youre right Pete .. that is a very serious concern. But in real terms .. the UKs changed status shouldnt impact current or future capital ventures.

There will undoubtedly be some financial impacts in your changed status .. but dont despair. Capitalist systems always adapt.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Absolutely Sky; there are I think, bigger problems laid up for the future than Brexit - and as you say, while business may take a short/medium term hit it will in the long-term pull around. It's what it does. This will make the ride uncomfortable for a while, but not of itself intolerable.

I'll post elsewhere about other concerns I have, but I hasten to add - for all of this, I'm not dispondant; on a personal level I feel positive ......... but I do worry for those coming behind.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

❤️
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May emerges from another EU meeting this week briefing that "good progress has been made" while a succession of EU leaders express the opposite saying that divisions in the cabinet are muddying the waters and making the UK position unclear. They again warn that "time is running out" while May responds with an admonishment that EU intransigence over a security deal post brexit puts lives on both sides at risk - an admission of course of a situation that was absolutely denied as a possibility by the leave campaign prior to the referendum.
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....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

🙄 oh dear .. you just kinda want something to build on .. and ... done and dusted.

I feel yer pain .. its truly excruciating to watch

But just remember ...

Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse

When youre chewing on lifes gristle
Dont grumble, give a whistle
And thisll help things turn out for the best

And always look on the bright side of life
Doo doo do doodly oddly ooo
Always look on the light side of life

If life seems jolly rotten
Theres something youve forgotten
And thats to laugh and smile and dance and sing

When youre feeling in the dumps
Dont be silly chumps
Just purse your lips and whistle, thats the thing

And always look on the bright side of life
Come on ..
Always look on the right side of life
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL

--A
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing

I'm the first to admit that this taking on of the Brexit chronicler has morphed into something touching on the dryness of Gibbon's Rise and Fall in its tediosity, but you have no idea of the air of superiority it allows me to affect when dealing with my colleagues and associates who have fallen by the wayside in their attempts to keep themselves informed. Wink

Meanwhile it took the EU parties just one minute (apparently) to agree yesterday that it was absolutely time that the UK put it's internecine differences aside and presented a coherent plan for its requirements for the post brexit relationship. If this was not achieved by the October summit (said EU chief Donald Tusk) then it was no-deal city. To this end the PM is taking her unruly cabinet to her country retreat Chequers next Friday in order to tounge lash them into some semblance of unity on the subject. That whatever kind of lexicographical fudge they emerge with will be within a mile of anything that the EU will accept is highly open to doubt. On this basis the bookies are now offering 50/50 odds on a no-deal exit, a scenario that in exhaustion I am starting to think might actually be the best alternative left to us. The hit would be bad for a few decades, but after that who knows..........
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