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Hashi Lebwohl
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wosbald wrote:
Trump's administration reportedly looked for ways to help Saudi Arabia build a nuclear weapon [In-Depth]


Saudi Arabia doesn't need the Trump Administration's assistance in order to build a nulcear weapon. I guarantee that they already have scientists who have the technical ability to construct such a device so all they really need is weapons-grade material, which they could probably secretly buy from the Russians or Chinese. This is not news, or at least not news worth worrying about.

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I thought the Democrats in the House of Representatives were itching to impeach Trump? February is almost over and they haven't done it yet. What are they waiting for? *shrug*

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
My link was fact-check.org .. which fact checked Trumps claim.. and found it wanting.
Oh, well then excuse me! With a name like, "Fact-check," there's no way they could be wrong! How dare I apply my own intelligence and question them! Think for myself? Sheesh. I should be more like you, and just uncritically accept what I read. I mean, fact-check. It's right in the name! How foolish of me. Laughing
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pfft 🙄 ... perhaps you might like to rethink your comments lol 😂

Or not 😉👍😎
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sky, the fact-check is looking at tax revenues in a bubble. The bubble being, this is what the govt would have gotten without the tax cut.

If you look at total federal tax revenues you will find that Z is correct. Even with the cuts, overall tax revenues are up and are estimated to be up again for 2019.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zarathustra wrote:
How dare I apply my own intelligence and question them!


Funny how other people aren't allowed to do that.

SB---the problem isn't/wasn't looking at revenues in a bubble.
You can parse it all kinds of ways, and decide what you want to blame.
But it's true the deficit would be lower---a LOT lower---without the tax cuts.
Trump says deficits seem to be coming down...no, they didn't to anyone who can look at a simple chart.
He also said the Treasury is getting money from the tariffs. That's impossible. That's now how it works, not how ANY of it works.
Also, the steel/aluminum have costs to go with those benefits. High costs.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And speaking of tariffs: Trump and his trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, got into a discussion this week about memoranda of understanding. Trump said they weren't real contracts; Lighthizer corrected him and explained that in fact, they are. Trump said he disagreed. With a fact! Trump disagreed with a fact! An MOU is, in fact, a contract!

Here's a link to the exchange: https://www.newsweek.com/video-trumps-trade-chief-changes-terminology-after-president-contradicts-him-1341759

Be sure to scroll down to the photo of the Beijing trade reps laughing at Trump. Yeah, he's doing a *great* job on our reputation on the world stage... Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vraith wrote:


SB---the problem isn't/wasn't looking at revenues in a bubble.
You can parse it all kinds of ways, and decide what you want to blame.
But it's true the deficit would be lower---a LOT lower---without the tax cuts.[/color]


The inbound receipts are outpacing the tax cut. The problem is with spending.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Except spending wasn't such a big problem until Trump and his Republican syncophants in Congress gave away the store to the 1%.

Weren't you guys all deficit hawks, back in the day? Here's a little chart for ya: https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

Obama had the deficit down to $438 billion in 2015. The Republicans passed that massive tax cut in 2017 -- and hey presto, the deficit is now estimated at $984 billion and climbing. That's not due to spending increases -- that's due to strangling the funding of the government.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Take a bow .. nicely summised Ali 👌
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aliantha wrote:
Except spending wasn't such a big problem until Trump and his Republican syncophants in Congress gave away the store to the 1%.

Weren't you guys all deficit hawks, back in the day? Here's a little chart for ya: https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

Obama had the deficit down to $438 billion in 2015. The Republicans passed that massive tax cut in 2017 -- and hey presto, the deficit is now estimated at $984 billion and climbing. That's not due to spending increases -- that's due to strangling the funding of the government.

Well, let's take a look at your quoted source a little bit more in depth, shall we?



For starters, Obama left office with the deficit at $665 billion (not the convenient low point of $438 billion in 2015 that you were so careful to highlight).

Secondly, looking at a direct (and one would presume fair) comparison of Obama's first term and the actuals + projections relating to Trump's first term, Trump's deficit is set to peak lower than Obama's (albeit I should note in the interests of fairness - and that's a phrase the meaning of which I commend to you - Obama started office with a much higher level of deficit).

Thirdly - and remember that "interests of fairness" thing? - yes, strictly speaking, the deficit for 2019 is indeed "forecast at $984 billiion and climbing". But only climbing by a paltry $3 billion (or 0.3%) for one more year, before falling back the following year by over 7% to $916 billion. More than a whiff of partisan spin there in your chosen presentation, I'd say.

Finally, the source and figures you've chosen to cite show that Obama increased overall debt by $5,335 billion during his first term. The same source and figures you've chosen to cite show that Trump is forecast to increase overall debt by $4,775 billion during his (first?) four years in office.

Damn but it's pesky when someone actually looks at the detail within cited sources, eh? It just ruins the promoted narrative...
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would also point out that the 1% pay almost 50% of all fed taxes. The top 10% pay closer to 70%. The top 25% pay close to 90% of all taxes.

Continually throwing out tax cuts for the 1% means nothing when. You realize they are paying not just a higher percentage of their salary but also pay a majority of all Fed taxes. It's just class warfare to keep acting as if they aren't paying their fair share.

Edit to add, I would be fine with lower spending but not OK with higher taxes.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How does it equate that 37% in taxes is less than a 10% in taxes?

How is 2.5% tax cut is more than a 5% tax cut?

The math goes like this.

37<10 and 2.5>5
must be that new system of math they are teaching.

how about everybody pay the same percentage?

I said it before and now again. I wasn't for this tax change and still am.
Believe it or not the more you make under this law the more in
overall taxes you will pay. The deductions favor those who make less
versus those who make more.
Plus the lowered tax per period was lowered so people got more in their
paycheck. But they are bitichin now because their refund is lower.
SALT was removed.
And like above. It not the amount that is brought in, it is the amount
the jackasses in Washington are spending.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasn't sure where to put this, but think we discussed it here.

Quote:
A year on, Trump's metals tariffs have more losers than winners

So far, trade wars don't seem to be as "good, and easy to win" as US President Donald Trump promised a year ago when he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

The scorecard shows a split decision. US steelmakers Nucor Corporation and United States Steel Corporation saw significant profit gains in 2018.

But manufacturers that buy the metal - led by Caterpillar Incorporated, a top three US exporter - say the tariffs have hurt profits, spurred layoffs and forced some companies to rework supply chains in ways that undercut use of American workers.

US manufacturing PMI, an indicator of economic health for the sector, has dropped steadily since August, and in February sat at its lowest level since Trump won the election.

Manufacturing showed "a lot of momentum coming out of 2017 into 2018," said John Mothersole, an IHS Markit analyst in Washington. "But all that momentum evaporated across the course of the year."

Mothersole sees the tariffs as a tax on US manufacturers, and said he believes they're likely a drag on the economy as a whole. After all, he said, a lot more people make things from steel than produce it.

Meanwhile, global manufacturing activity has fallen in 10 of 11 months since the US tariffs were imposed, peeling it back to a level last seen in 2016, according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI index.

That's occurred as global economic growth is under pressure after a sharp slowdown in 2018, and policy makers await clarity on issues from trade tariffs to Brexit.

To be sure, there are supporters of the tariffs. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, for instance has downplayed the tariff's negative effects.

Appearing on CNBC at one point, he used a soup can to say most Americans would barely notice the tariffs. The can contained 2.6 cents worth of steel, he said, adding, "if that goes up by 25%, that's six-tenths of one cent."

On the other side of the equation, Caterpillar, the world's biggest machinery producer, said it may have lost more than $100m (about R1.4bn) in 2018 as a result of the tariffs, while beer-maker MillerCoors, the US unit of Molson Coors Brewing Company, has said the aluminum tariffs probably added more than $40m (about R580m) in costs to its operation.

Mid-Continent Steel and Wire Incorporated, a maker of nails, has said it's cutting jobs to offset its added costs from the tariffs, while PanelClaw Incorporated and Nuance Energy, suppliers of steel racks for solar panels, say they're now importing some racks from abroad rather than building them with American workers at home.

On the aluminum side, even US producers are struggling. Chinese exports of aluminum products have risen to record highs, pressuring prices. Century Aluminum Company reported a fourth-quarter loss, as did Alcoa Corporation's aluminum division.

"In the big picture, even with 232, things are not so great," said Mark Hansen, chief executive of trading house Concord Resources Limited, referring to the tariffs Trump imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

"The price pressure from the East is still pushing down the market price."

Hansen believes now is the time to address this. "If we don't deal with it now as part of this big China trade deal, then 232 is a band-aid that's just not going to work," he said.

Here's a breakdown from other regions:

Europe

European steelmakers were initially furious about Trump's tariffs, but not because of fears they might lose access to the US market. Instead, they were concerned that steel heading for the US would be rerouted to Europe.

That fear was somewhat realised, with shipments into Europe - largely from Turkey - increasing about 12% last year to the highest level since 2007.

That provoked the European Union (EU) to implement its own protectionist measures, called safeguarding, that caps the amount of tariff-free imports to the region.

Those measures were implemented last month, with the idea they should be able to curb the recent growth in imports.

The European aluminum industry, meanwhile, faces a different situation, according to Gerd Gotz, director general of European Aluminum, a lobby group for the industry.

The combined impact of the metal tariffs and the US-China tariffs led to increased European sales of aluminum products to the US, since the import tax on China was higher than the all-in toll placed on Europe.

US imports of aluminum and aluminum products from the EU grew by about 17% to $1.72bn (about R24.9bn) in 2018 compared with the previous year, he said.

Meanwhile, the European industry has been pushing for a broader deal to address "China's unfair subsidised aluminum overcapacity," Gotz said.

Asia

In Asia, steelmakers have yet to feel much of an impact from the US metal tariffs. China, maker of half the world's steel, has managed to exert greater control over its steel market through structural reforms that mitigated their effect, according to Yoku Ihara, the head of Growth & Value Stock Research of Japan.

China's push to create domestic demand has "so far worked, keeping steel market conditions favorable," Ihara said. "That factor has outweighed the effect of the tariffs."

Ihara, though, warns that those conditions may not last. China's economy faces a turning point as the negative impact of the trading war with US has begun to emerge outside the steel sector.

The Asian giant has been on a building spree, at a faster pace than needed, Ihara said, and could eventually see demand fall short.

"Steelmakers will need to be prepared for a radical change in market conditions," he said.

What Bloomberg Intelligence says:

Robust steel prices in China, driven by supply-side cuts and sustained domestic demand, has made it more profitable for Chinese mills to sell to the home market than to export - Yi Zhu, Metals & Mining analyst.

Japanese steelmakers have also seen limited impact from the tariffs as many of their products are getting approval through US Commerce Department exemptions.

Shinichi Nakamura, executive vice president of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, Japan's biggest producer, was initially concerned that the metal blocked by the US tariffs would flow into Southeast Asia, hitting Japan's export market, but such a phenomenon hasn't occurred, he said.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rep. Justin Amash, R-MI, made some waves by suggesting that Trump "engaged in impeachable conduct" based on his conclusions from the Mueller Report. Republicans are closing ranks against him, of course, and Democrats are praising him. Rep. Amash, himself, claims that he is only acting on his conscience but it sounds like he is trying to play both sides for attention.
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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Rep. Justin Amash, R-MI, made some waves by suggesting that Trump "engaged in impeachable conduct" based on his conclusions from the Mueller Report. Republicans are closing ranks against him, of course, and Democrats are praising him. Rep. Amash, himself, claims that he is only acting on his conscience but it sounds like he is trying to play both sides for attention.
From a quick scan of Wikipedia, it appears Amash identifies as a "libertarian conservative". How libertarian he is can be questioned, but based on his positions, he has not really followed the rank and file of Republicans on a couple issues like gerrymandering, marijuana, and same-sex marriage. Because his electability never seemed to have depended on him being a "good Republican", his comments on impeachment can be plausibly believed to not affect his chances in 2020.
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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two very clear indicators of "Libertarian leanings" are "not following the rank-and-file" and "not toeing the Party line".
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PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2019 5:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pffft. He's not going to be impeached. Hell, the way things look right now, I won't be surprised if he gets a second term.

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PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2019 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its not like obstruction cant be proven .. it would seem that there is a lack of political will.

Presidents have been threatened with impeachment proceedings for less. But impeachment is never truly a process that is easily embraced. It scares the establishment 😉
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PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2019 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
Its not like obstruction cant be proven .. it would seem that there is a lack of political will.


Exactly. Although there are still Democrats looking to dish out a little revenge for Bill, no one really wants to start the process of investigating and indicting every POTUS. If the Democrats *could* indict Trump on something they would have already done so.
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The New York State legislature just passed a bill that will allow Congress to request State tax returns, which means they will immediately go for Trump's.

They couldn't find anything in the Mueller Investigation so they are going to try and find something here. Good luck.

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