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Brexit - a quick resume of where we are.
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't even try to keep up with this story any more. The phrase to use here is "shit or get off the pot"--just have a public vote and choose one: leave immediately or stay.
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 3:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing Yes, well if only it were that simple Hashi! We've already had a vote and Leave won. But the representative democracy of Parliament is set four square against the plebiscitary democracy of referendum, and is highly likely, by vote in the near future to overturn the latter in what it see's as the people's best interest. This 'story' cuts right across Cail's three levels of discourse; it concerns people, events and ideas and if it requires some attention to hold all of it's warfs and wefts, it's ebbs and flows together, then this is simply reflective of it's complexity. But the effort for those with a mind to do so is repaid by the prize of seeing history unfold before our eyes in a way that rarely occurs with such palpable clarity as each successive event occurs.

Meanwhile, back on the ranch.......... Wink

There is increasing pressure on May to throw in the towel - days or weeks at most - and also calls for her to pull the 4th vote on her withdrawal agreement, due to be held in June. I'm not sure why this would be, except for the cast iron knowledge that it wouldn't pass that the Tories have - but it seems to me that if this is Indeed the case, then the sooner it is put into the dustbin of history the better!

Andrea Leadsom, Leader of the Commons has quit the government saying she can no longer support May's deal with it's attached second referendum vote. Leadsom was a fairly hard leaver and also a contender for the Tory leadership in the last leadership election. Her departure will be a blow for May; Leadsom for her part is probably preparing for a tilt at the leadership again, or at least distancing herself from May so that she will not be overlooked for ministerial role by any new leader. It was always a bit of a suprise to see her in the cabinet anyway, aligned as she was with Boris Johnson before that all fell apart in the last leadership challenge. A case of keep your friends close and your enemies closer still perhaps........

Question is, will Leadsom's departure start a rush for the doors; if that happens, May could be gone by tonight.
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting times. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting times. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote



Looks just like her.
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
Laughing Yes, well if only it were that simple Hashi! We've already had a vote and Leave won. But the representative democracy of Parliament is set four square against the plebiscitary democracy of referendum, and is highly likely, by vote in the near future to overturn the latter in what it see's as the people's best interest.


If the people can vote for something but Parliament can say "no", then why bother allowing the people to vote?

Some issues can be made more complex than they need to be, usually because someone is trying to retain their grip on power.

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's even more amusing are some of the Remainer politicians are saying crap like "Referenda are the tools used by dictators...We need a 2nd referendum."

You can't make this shit up. Wink


Also I agree with Hashi. I believe that your politicians are intentionally sabotaging the Brexit vote, making the issue appear far more complex than it is in reality, and then they will pull a "decision in the best interest of the UK" and cancel Brexit.

Why give a plebiscite over the issue while promising to honor the results only to not honor the results at all because it wasn't what the politicians wanted? It's so mind-numbingly stupid.

I can see why the Founding Fathers hated the British crown/government so much...
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sterling/euro exchange rate is likely causing all this hinderance.
Britain (London Square Mile) is essentially a bank skimming the cream from global monetary exchange. And with half a century of Euro tax rebate in the pipeline, well ...
the Euro Market lawfully needs more time to balance the books.

ur-Nanothnir wrote:
You can't make this shit up. Wink

Oh yes you can, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deal_or_No_Deal.
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

These are exactly the questions around which all of this kerfuffle centers. In the British constitution referenda are not legally binding on parliament. They are advisory on the basis that we have a representative democracy (ie you vote for your candidate and then he or she has a free hand to vote in parliament as they think fit.)

But.......

David Cameron, when he called the 2016 referendum gave two assurances. First that it would be a one time vote - in or out. Second that the result would be acted upon. But it is in the face of the true enormity of this decision to leave, particularly with no future agreement in place as to trading arrangements with our biggest market, that parliament has in effect got cold feet and started backtracking.

In respect of the dangers or otherwise of referenda, I think the evidence we have before us in respect of the UK one speaks for itself. I remember posting in a thread on the 2015 UK general election (when Cameron successfully used the bait of holding one as a means to woo back support from UKIP) that it was a rash move that would come back to bite him - and the country - in due course. Iirc, one of the old Greek philosophers made observations as to how they could be used as a tool by populist demagogues, and that rule by referenda could quickly degenerate into rule by the mob if great care were not taken in their use. I'm guessing this is where the idea that they are the tool of choice for dictatorship regimes who rely on populism for their survival comes from.

In respect of the developing situation here, word has it that May could outline her departure details today, or even throw it in all together today. Boris Johnson is emerging as favourite to succeed her - but the Tories are notorious for not choosing favourites as their leaders..... only two have suceeded in winning the position in a dozen or so elections in the past seventy five years. But someone said yesterday that May is in number 10 and has pushed the sofa up against the door. She isn't going to go by choice that's for sure - at least not without getting some concessions as to getting her deal before parliament again if she can. This will not be seen as the Tories finest hour methinks!
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
British Prime Minister Theresa May resigns



London - British Prime Minister Theresa May says she will quit, triggering a contest that will bring a new leader to power who is likely to push for a more decisive Brexit divorce deal.

Speaking on Friday morning, May set out a timetable for her departure: she will resign as Conservative Party leader on June 7 with a leadership contest the following week.

"I will resign as leader of the Conservative and Unionist party on June 7 so that a successor can be chosen," May said outside 10 Downing Street.

May, once a reluctant supporter of EU membership, who won the top job in the turmoil that followed the 2016 Brexit vote, steps down with her central pledges - to lead the UK out of the bloc and heal its divisions - unfulfilled.

She endured crises and humiliation in her effort to find a compromise Brexit deal that parliament could ratify, and bequeaths a deeply divided country and a political elite that is deadlocked over how, when or whether to leave the EU.

May's departure will deepen the Brexit crisis as a new leader is likely to want a more decisive split, raising the chances of a confrontation with the EU and a snap parliamentary election.

The leading contenders to succeed May all want a tougher divorce deal, although the EU has said it will not renegotiate the withdrawal treaty it sealed in November.

Reuters


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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe when all is said and done, every PM will have resigned and the UK Political System can start over!
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Return to the days of absolute monarchy?
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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On May's departure the key things are one, that this leadership contest will occur slap bang in the middle of the extremely limited time that remains for us to sort out our plan in respect of our next 'deadline' for leaving the EU - October 31. Two, irrespective of who gets the top job, they are faced with exactly the same impasse and parliamentary arithmetic that has finished off May.

On the first, in the face of the EU advice given at the granting of the last extension, to "make good use of the time" one hesitates to think of what the Tories would consider to be making bad use of it. (The EU have already sent a message to the new leader to be; don't ask to reopen the negotiations on the withdrawal agreement - it's not going to happen.)

On the second, we now have a situation where a new and most likely hard leaving orientated PM, if they favour a no-deal brexit, simply has to wait until the deadline is reached doing nothing - and out we go. Parliament can do nothing that has legal force to prevent this, however against no deal it might be. Certainly great pressure can be applied by various means, but nothing that actually forces the government to act in a given way, and if the new PM can cite public desire to see resolution of brexit, even by no-deal, then they have a strong means of resisting that pressure.

Well, there is actually something that could be done to thwart such an outcome. Parliament could pass a vote of no confidence in the government and force a general election, but in truth are the Tories ever going to do that; it would require support of remainer Tories added to the rest of the remain vote in the House to get such a motion passed, and the only thing that remain inclined Tories might see as worse for the country than no-deal is Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.

Tory grandee Michael Heseltine speaking on last night's news said that in any other country there would have been violence perpetrated by now and it was a measure of British sanguinuity/stoicism that there has not been to date; let's hope that remains the case. He also felt that the maths of the situation and the impasse caused thereby was so intractable that it was unbreachable by means other than a general election or a second referendum.
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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So... Remainer Tories want to remain in the EU at all costs AND prevent Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM? So they want their cake and to eat it, too? lol
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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Show me a politician that didn't! Laughing

When we consider this whole mess and try to see where it goes, we can look at it either from it's (putative) end point of October 31 or start from where we are now.

On October 31 at the latest, we have to:-

Return to Brussels either with a parliamentary go ahead for the May negotiated withdrawal deal.....

Or an acceptance to leave with no deal in place.....

Or a request for a further extension.....

Or an instruction to revoke Article 50 (I think we can still do this unilaterally).

From today going forward it will be the results of the European Elections (due in on Sunday night) that will determine the direction of travel toward one of the above ends.

Taking the chances of returning with parliamentary acceptance of May's deal, they are essentially zero. May, the driving force behind it is gone in all but name; The House hates it and won't touch it with a barge pole and chances are it won't even get to the House for a fourth hearing now that May has resigned. In respect of simply allowing no-deal, well the House has said it won't countenance it, but short of precipitation of a general election can't legally stop it. I'm not even sure a general election would stop it unless an extension was requested and there is no guarantee that this would be done. Boris Johnson has already kicked off his leadership bid by stating unequivocally that on October 31 we leave the EU, with or without a deal and the EU for their part responded immediately to the news of May's departure (after the customary niceties thanking her) that the new leader needed to understand that the negotiated deal would under no circumstances be reopened and that it was the only deal on the table.

Coming to a request for an extension, the EU are not in any way bound to aquiess to such a request, and would only do so we're it to facilitate the move toward a much softer Brexit or an overturning of the intention to leave by say a second referendum. The possibility of stopping brexit via a second referendum or indeed the actual revoking of Article 50 still remains and in fact along side no-deal, the other main contender for the end point of this whole sorry saga. But how might we get there?

Taking the results of the European Elections and going forward, we can safely say that the high polling of the brexit party and the likely success in the elections of the same, will almost certainly guarantee that a hard leaver will take May's place as Tory leader in the next few weeks. This leader will be emboldened by the result (unless the polls have it wildly wrong) into being insouciant about the prospect of no-deal, in fact they may even embrace it if they believe public opinion is on the side of such, and then it will take a true Commons revolt to stop it. But perhaps they would do it; perhaps Tory remainers for who it is anathema would truly vote in no confidence to pull down their own government and precipitate a general election. Then a new government might, if in place in time, request the extension required in order to organise a second referendum - or if they (it would have to be Labour really) had stood on a ticket of revoking Article 50, then by winning they might consider they had a mandate to do this without further recourse to the electorate.

Working things through like this from either end I think you have to finish up with the following highly likely things. One - there will be a general election sooner rather than later and two - brexit will either go ahead via no-deal or will be overturned all together. Beyond this (and even this is contingent) it's almost impossible to call.
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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be funny if a general election was called and it resulted in a stronger Leave presence in the Parliament... At this point, UK is basically Clown World. Honk honk.
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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The UK headlines today show a mobilization of the centre ground of the Tory party against Boris Johnson. In a case of 'ABB' (that's Anyone But Boris by the way) they are plastered over the front pages to express in United voice (probably the only thing that does unite them) how absolutely untrustworthy, incompetent and unpredictable he would be as Party leader and even worse, Prime Minister. Though we haven't heard much from them of late there is clearly still a strong element of 'one-nation conservative' sympathy within the party, and when the Tory MPs have finally selected their two choices to put to the constituency membership to vote on, it will be between a right-wing hard leaver and a moderate center ground candidate for sure. At this point the moderate is screwed. The mess that May has made of Brexit has ensured this: the party membership are now so disolusioned by the whole process that only a no-deal leader would satisfy them. One of the tactics being used by the ABB coalition is that of casting doubt on Boris's true conviction as a hard leaver. There is some sense to this: Johnson sat right on the fence for a long time before declaration of his support for Leave in the 2016 referendum, and Leavers from the off have not forgotten it. They claim his new found hard stance is merely the man shifting chameleon like, to the position of most popularity, and that when in situ as leader his true moderate colour will return (this actually sounds like it might be to his advantage as I write it, but I'm sure that the authors of the accusations don't intend it to be taken this way). Having the support of ERG chairman Jacob Rees-Mog, about the hardest leaver in the entire house, should go some way to parrying this particular thrust.

To date there is some eighteen candidates who have put their names forward and who will be wittled down over the coming weeks. Each one will have garnered an amount of support before doing so, and when some of them withdraw or are voted out by their peers, they will normally declare who they in turn will support, thus signaling to their supporters who to transfer their own backing to. So when say, as Liz Truss has done today, one simply pulls out of the race, you can be sure a backroom deal has been done where the withdrawee has bargained support with the candidate she will now back in return for cabinet preferment if the candidate wins. Such is the cloak and dagger world of Tory politics where the sands shift constantly and nothing is as it seems. Master of the dark arts and Boris Backstabber extraordinaire Michael Gove has declared his intention to run and is leading the ABB campaign, this time at least knifing his old friend in the front rather than the back.
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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 5:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like the prediction for the EU vote is that the far right is gaining, and the centrists will have to reach out to the liberals to form coalitions to oppose them.

Also apparently...

Quote:
Thursday's votes from Britain will not be counted until after polls close in Italy, but Farage's Brexit Party appears on course to send a large delegation to a parliament it wants to abolish.

But much will depend on who gets the top jobs: the presidencies of the Council and the Commission, the speaker of parliament, the high representative for foreign policy and director of the European Central Bank.


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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 5:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The European Election results are largely in with the predicted landslide by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party looking ever ore likely up to this point.

Farage has 28 seats (of a possible 72) with the Conservative Party scoring 3. This translated to a general election result would put Farage into Downing Street and though this is unlikely to happen (because people tend to vote more in line with their mainstream party when it comes to voting for a government and PM) it still remains a stark warning for both Labour and especially the Tories. The Tories are languishing with just 3 seats, basically screwed, and this result will only confirm to them the necessity of electing a solid Leaver as their new leader. On yesterday's political shows and in the papers the candidates were falling over themselves to stress their intentions to leave on or before October 31, some even going as far as touting their 'comfortableness' with no-deal as an endpoint in their attempts to woo the hard Leaver wing of the Party and within the nation as a whole. This would be important to secure the sixty cum seventy percent of the party membership who actively favour a no-deal brexit, when it comes to that part of the leadership vote. At this point in UK politics moderate views seem ever more in the background. One glimmer of hope in this direction was the Liberal Democrats success in the European Elections where they are to date running second with a pretty decent tally at present. Labour for the record have done badly, but not as badly as they might and not nearly as badly as the Tories. The European Elections have always been used by the political parties as barometer of national intentions of how to vote in the general elections and have as such been major influencing factors in future strategy planning. This one will be massively so.

Edit; Very Happy Hi Av - posts crossed there!

Yes, it's a bit of a conundrum that I have not yet worked through, that at the very point where we have to deliver this decision as to how to proceed with brexit (or cancel it) to the EU, there appears to be no actual administration in place to accept or aquiess to it. Certainly the receptiveness or otherwise to future requests for extensions or negotiations (or that of the negotiations themselves) is going to be massively influenced by the newly elected bodies and leaders put into place (if I have it correctly) on November 1. That side of it and how it works against the backdrop of the highly important stage of our situation (that falls right on top of it) I won't pretend to understand, but no doubt it will unfold as it is meant to. In choosing the date of October 31 for our deadline the EU must have known what it was doing .......... mustn't it? I mean they wouldn't of organised for us to come round like unpopular visitors, to the house when they knew nobody was going to be home....... would they? Laughing
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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avatar wrote:
Looks like the prediction for the EU vote is that the far right is gaining, and the centrists will have to reach out to the liberals to form coalitions to oppose them.

Also apparently...

Quote:
Thursday's votes from Britain will not be counted until after polls close in Italy, but Farage's Brexit Party appears on course to send a large delegation to a parliament it wants to abolish.

But much will depend on who gets the top jobs: the presidencies of the Council and the Commission, the speaker of parliament, the high representative for foreign policy and director of the European Central Bank.


--A


The Brexit Party isn't 'far-right.'
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