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Official 2020 Presidential Prognostication Thread
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sgt.null
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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
A crisis?

Do you have any evidence to support that assertion?


I actually live in America.
It is a crisis.
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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sgt.null wrote:
Skyweir wrote:
A crisis?

Do you have any evidence to support that assertion?


I actually live in America.
It is a crisis.


I do too. I would say the "crisis" is due more to incompetence of current politicians than anything else.

An incompetence only matched by the irresponsible incompetency of the electorate. Honestly, I'm waiting for an idiot communist block of voters to organize against the idiot alt-right block of voters. Note that I use "idiot" to distinguish it from other adherents to communism. Much how the alt-right has a misplaced, uninformed emphasis on Rome and Norse myth, the block of voters I refer to have a misplaced, uninformed emphasis on Karl Marx.
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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sgt.null wrote:
Skyweir wrote:
A crisis?

Do you have any evidence to support that assertion?


I actually live in *Texas*.
It is a crisis.


I fixed your response for you.
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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 1:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
sgt.null wrote:
Skyweir wrote:
A crisis?

Do you have any evidence to support that assertion?


I actually live in *Texas*.
It is a crisis.


I fixed your response for you.


Thanks. That is what I meant.
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robert Francis held a town hall meeting over at CNN. If you didn't watch it then don't worry--not many other people did, either. According to Neilsen numbers, that time block at CNN had approximately 714,000 viewers, as opposed to Fox News at 2.26 million and MSNBC at 2.2 million.

Robert Francis has gone from being compared to RFK (okay, they share first and middle names, but that's about all) and being touted as a new face for the Democratic Party to a lackluster, hum-drum, equivalent of "the field" (horses far down on the ticket who are just there to fill all the spots).

I think we can scratch his name off the ticket.

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cillizza over at CNN lists his current Top 10 Democrats vying for the nomination. I will not disagree with his assessment since he has probably been keeping a closer eye on these people than I have been.

1 Joe Biden
2 Bernie Sanders
3 Kamala Harris
4 Pete Buttigieg
5 Elizabeth Warren
6 Amy Klobuchar
7 Robert Francis O'Rourke
8 Cory Booker
9 Steve Bullock
10 Andrew Yang (about whom I have heard nothing)

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

Trump's emerging Catholic problem

Quote:

Voters cast their ballots at a polling place inside St. Leo's Catholic Church in Baltimore on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012. (AP/Patrick Semansky)


Catholics are moving away from President Trump.

In the latest Quinnipiac poll (which thankfully includes a set of questions about religion), 55% of Catholics say they will definitely not vote for Trump in 2020, as opposed to 32% who say they definitely will vote for him and 12% who say they'd consider it. Even if all those who are only considering voting for him end up in his corner, the resulting 55-44 margin would be a major blow to his reelection chances.

[...]

When it comes to Trump, the shift among Catholics is more pronounced than among other religious groups. In 2016, 39% of non-Catholic Christians (Protestants and others) voted for Clinton. In the Q-poll, the proportion who say they definitely won't vote for Trump is up just two points from that, to 41%. Nones show a comparably small point increase, from 67% who voted for Clinton to 70% who say they definitely won't vote for Trump.

Interestingly, the slippage is somewhat greater among white evangelicals. Where 80% of them voted for Trump in 2016, now 60% say they'll definitely vote for him, and another 15% are considering it, for a total of 75%. Where 16% voted for Clinton, now 24% say they definitely won't vote for Trump.

What accounts for the proportionately greater Catholic shift? A number of explanations suggest themselves.

Even relatively conservative Catholics retain elements of Catholic social teaching that put them at odds with Trump policies. Of these, the most important may be the Church's preferential option for the poor and its strong history of, and support for, immigration. It's also worth bearing in mind that the president's religious outreach has been almost exclusively to evangelicals, toward whom the Catholic rank and file retain considerable suspicion.

What about Latinos, who constitute an increasingly large portion of the Catholic population? It is plausible to think that the shift is the result of their distress at Trump's border policy and his attitude toward Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria.

In fact, that doesn't seem to be the case. Although the Q-poll provides no information on Latinos, exit polls show that their increased preference for Democratic House candidates was less than half of what it was for Catholics as a whole: up seven points, from 67-32 in 2016 to 69-27 in 2018. In a word, most of the shift is on the part of white Catholics.

Over the past several decades, the candidate who wins the Catholic vote has won the presidency. At this point, Trump is losing it.

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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump will win the Catholic vote for one reason: Abortions. Oh, they will hmmm-and-haw about it and bemoan the fact Trump is a terrible human being with few qualities, let alone redeeming ones, but they will enthusiastically vote for him nonetheless for that one issue.

Because that's how American politics works amongst the populist. Oh, they might say stuff like "Obama was better for the economy and foreign policy and so on and so forth" but they would never vote for him then or now because of a single issue or two, the single issues being abortion and gun rights.

Meanwhile, the much more numerous left side of the voting populace is gearing up to start down their purity tests about how people making any amount of money that can be viewed as excessive is disqualifying, and that fundraising is bad, and taking donations from anything and anyone other than John and Jane Q. Citizen is disqualifying. So, add that to Trump's advantage in 2020.
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Orlion wrote:
Trump will win the Catholic vote for one reason: Abortions. Oh, they will hmmm-and-haw about it and bemoan the fact Trump is a terrible human being with few qualities, let alone redeeming ones, but they will enthusiastically vote for him nonetheless for that one issue.

Because that's how American politics works amongst the populist. Oh, they might say stuff like "Obama was better for the economy and foreign policy and so on and so forth" but they would never vote for him then or now because of a single issue or two, the single issues being abortion and gun rights.

Meanwhile, the much more numerous left side of the voting populace is gearing up to start down their purity tests about how people making any amount of money that can be viewed as excessive is disqualifying, and that fundraising is bad, and taking donations from anything and anyone other than John and Jane Q. Citizen is disqualifying. So, add that to Trump's advantage in 2020.


I agree.
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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

Is God becoming non-partisan? [In-Depth]

Quote:



Panelists at Georgetown event discuss faith and politics in 2020 election


Washington -- As Democratic presidential candidates seem more willing and eager to discuss their faith in public, Christine Emba, an opinion writer for The Washington Post, said she expects interesting questions to arise about what faith means in American politics.

"I do think that this debate about religion in 2020 reflects a number of macro questions that we will be talking about for years to come," Emba said at a May 22 panel at Georgetown University sponsored by the school's Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life.

"We're seeing not just the religious right but we're seeing the emergence of, perhaps, a religious left," said Emba.

That emergence complicates previously held narratives that the right had an ownership of faith in American politics. It also raises questions, Emba said, about "what Christianity really means? What the Bible actually says? And what parts of the Gospel are most relevant today?"

Emba said that previously faith could be expected to break down along obvious lines. "To be Christian, it can be implied, is to be on the right," she said.

Emba and fellow panelist Michael Steele, a political analyst for MSNBC and former chairperson of the Republican National Committee, compared the Republican party and President Donald Trump's utilization of faith in politics to a weapon or "bludgeon."

Rather than emphasizing the importance of living your faith in everyday life, Emba said that the right tends to make faith an "either-or" question.

[...]

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You see I tend to see this .. whether accurately or inaccurately ... that religion is being weaponised by politics or visa versa. The use of the evangelical movement in politics is rather concerning particularly re abortion, isolationist policies and serving self ... and self interest.

No I am not suggesting self interest or being self serving is WRONG .. but leads to the kind of non inclusive policy pathways.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skyweir wrote:
You see I tend to see this .. whether accurately or inaccurately ... that religion is being weaponised by politics or visa versa. The use of the evangelical movement in politics is rather concerning particularly re abortion, isolationist policies and serving self ... and self interest.

No I am not suggesting self interest or being self serving is WRONG .. but leads to the kind of non inclusive policy pathways.


Actually religion is finally starting to fight back against policies that have continued to force religion into the back corners of society. Its OK to say you are a Christian but as soon as you actually practice it, then its an issue. The misuse of the "freedom of religion" that has been used to do this is finally being challenged more in courts and being seen for what it is. A direct move to facilitate the decline of religion anywhere in public. .... dont practice your religion in your business or we put you out of business by suing you. (which most people cannot hope to afford and they just cave or close their business).
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ahhh .. so many points of interest here brb
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back

First a few things

I see value in religion aamof. Not proselytising to those who dont want it ... religion. Or forcing people to pray in schools religion .. which you might be referring to.

BUT if people are so inclined to pray throughout the day .. a place and time is designated for such practices.

As to businesses .. thats slightly more argumentative.. as yes you should be able to decide what you do and dont do as a business. However .. not to the degree that intended commission or deliberate omission is discriminatory ie a. A
Bakery refusing to serve black Americans or Jews.

Yes I intentionally selected those two groups to demonstrate a point re discrimination. Similarly a business unless there is some compelling cause should not be discriminatory in its hiring practices ... refusing to hire eg black Americans or Jewish candidates.

Christianity is an arguably positive philosophically. Not talking about the history and evolution of Christianity which has been an interesting journey .. and one characterised by coercion and coercive tactics.

Nevertheless... FREEDOM of religion is an interesting one. Freedom to follow the dictates of ones conscience e ... freedom? I support that wholeheartedly. Freedom to breach another persons privacy ... not so much . Freedom to break the law in pursuit of this freedom.. again not so much.

I think there is a place for positive influences in politics but we would need to define and agree on what that actually means. Good food for thought. Id like to hear what Freedom of religion actually means to you
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

The Trump Aversion Gap

Quote:

President Trump meets with faith leaders inside the Oval Office on May 3, 2017. (Photo by Pastor Mark Burns)


As the 2020 election comes into view, a gap has opened up between President Trump's approval ratings and Americans' voting intentions: A significant number of voters who approve of the job Trump is doing as president say they wouldn't vote to re-elect him.

According to the latest Morning Consult/Politico tracking poll, 43 percent of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of his job performance but only 37 percent say they would "definitely" or "probably" vote for him. Overall, the approval point spread is 11 (43 percent versus 54 percent who strongly disapprove) -- modestly above the current polling average of 9.2 percent -- while the re-election point spread is 18 (37 percent versus 55 percent who strongly disapprove).

Let's call the seven-point differential between the spreads the Trump Aversion Gap (TAG). It is reflection of the softness of Trump's support, not only in the voting public as a whole but also among his evangelical base.

[...]

What accounts for this? My guess is that it mostly has to do with Trump's readiness to advance the conservative social agenda on abortion, religious liberty, transgender rights, education, etc. That earns him robust job approval among evangelicals even as many of them find him presidentially objectionable.

Ergo the little contretemps that took place after Trump decided to interrupt his golf game and drop in on McLean Bible Church in suburban Washington last Sunday, the day set by Franklin Graham for evangelicals to pray for him. Surprised, Pastor David Platt let the president appear at the front of the church and delivered the kind of generic prayer for government leaders that commonly issue from Southern Baptist pulpits. Trump's very presence upset some of his congregants.

Platt later issued an explanation for what he'd done, writing, "I wanted to share all of this with you in part because I know that some within our church, for a variety of valid reasons, are hurt that I made this decision." Whereupon, Jerry Falwell, Jr., evidently disturbed by Platt's apologia, tweeted that pastors like him should "grow a pair."

Subsequently, the tweet was deleted in the face of hostile reaction from his Twitter followers. Then conservative pundit Todd Starnes accused the objecting congregants of Trump Derangement Syndrome. And so on.

Of course, the election is a long way off, and it may turn out that when they get into the voting booth, the Trump-averse evangelicals will hold their nose and vote for him anyway. But if I were running the president's campaign, I wouldn't be depending on the kind of support my candidate got from them and their co-religionists back in 2016.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I own a business, either I am free to deny service to an entire class of people--as long as I also accept the economic consequences of turning away paying customers and the social consequences of being a jackass--or I am not free. Either I own my business and I make the decisions concerning its operation or I have to do what the government tells me and I realize that I do not actually own the business.

Which way is it? Free or not free?

*************

Joe Biden's campaign promise from his visit to Iowa: elect Joe and he will see to it that we cure cancer during his Presidency. Does that mean that if we do not elect Joe that we are voting to let people continue to die from cancer? Isn't that an extremely emotionally manipulative campaign promise?

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sky, I will try to find my way back here to tell you my thoughts on Freedom of Religion as opposed to Freedom from Religion.I have family in town and I do t want to just throw something together that is t very cogent due to time limitations.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All good dude .. ♥️ Im not going anywhere and am very pro family first ♥️
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:

Joe Biden's campaign promise from his visit to Iowa: elect Joe and he will see to it that we cure cancer during his Presidency. Does that mean that if we do not elect Joe that we are voting to let people continue to die from cancer? Isn't that an extremely emotionally manipulative campaign promise?


It would be, if it was the sort of promise you could make with any expectation of it being fulfilled...

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I listened to Trumps campaign launch speech .. saying Democrats hate Americans and want to destroy America. Rolling Eyes

And his base lapping up the bullshit. Rolling Eyes

So yeah a lot of BS going around... for a whole nuther year too.
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