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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
By flattening the curve - and by the way, I don't know who you think ever said that lockdowns would stop the disease - we've bought ourselves the time to discover how to treat it more effectively. That will have saved large numbers of lives, which I don't consider to be a farce.


Saved a lot of lives...how? The virus simply is not that deadly unless you are eldery and/or have underlying health issues, which we knew 5 months ago.

No, the lockdowns were all about turning corona into a political weapon against Trump. Cases are spiking now specifically becasue of the recent protests--all those people not social distancing or wearing masks half the time.... Of course, things were made worse by health officials telling people that protesting is okay but going out to dinner is evil.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uh, most countries in the world implemented them...scarcely credible that global lock-downs were an attack on him.

And as for the protests:

Quote:
What have protests taught us about the coronavirus?

Experts expected the widespread "Black Lives Matter" protests to spark new chains of COVID-19 infection. But a new analysis shows that the cities with the largest protests have not had spikes in transmission...



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
TheFallen wrote:
By flattening the curve - and by the way, I don't know who you think ever said that lockdowns would stop the disease - we've bought ourselves the time to discover how to treat it more effectively. That will have saved large numbers of lives, which I don't consider to be a farce.


Saved a lot of lives...how? The virus simply is not that deadly unless you are elderly and/or have underlying health issues, which we knew 5 months ago.

No, the lockdowns were all about turning corona into a political weapon against Trump.

"Saved a lot of lives" by:-

1. Buying the time to allow more effective treatments for the virus to be identified and used. You'll notice how mortality rates are seemingly lessening as time goes on.

2. Curbing the transmission rate, so less elderly and infirm individuals have had the opportunity to get infected.

Now sure, I agree that the virus is by far and away most deadly to the elderly and infirm. And before you say it, I also acknowledge that the risk to the elderly and infirm could have been reduced to a large degree by just those individuals self-isolating...

...but then again it's equally true that the more cases of infection in the populace in general, the more risk to those most susceptible to the worst effects of COVID-19, no matter what those latter unilaterally do.

And in direct support of that last point, I note this weekend just gone that George Abbott, the Texas State Governor, has warned of a recent very steep rise in both cases of coronavirus and hospitalisations arising.
BBC.co.uk today wrote:
The spread of coronavirus infections has taken a "swift and very dangerous turn" in the US state of Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has warned.

"Over just the past few weeks, the daily number of cases have gone from an average of about 2,000, to more than 5,000," Mr Abbott said on Sunday.

Several southern and western states have recorded a surge in cases after lockdown restrictions were eased.

...

The spike has led officials in Texas, Florida and other states to tighten restrictions on business again, with warnings that hospitals may soon be overwhelmed.

On Sunday, Mr Abbott said that as many as 5,000 people a day were being admitted to hospital for treatment.

...

On Sunday, Arizona also recorded a record daily increase of more than 3,800 cases. Hundreds of people reportedly travelled to rivers in the state to escape the hot weather.

The reported increases in infections in southern and western states come after moves in recent weeks to re-open businesses, resulting in people from other areas pouring in.

Responding to the level of new cases, Mr Abbott last week told bars to close and limited restaurants' indoor seating capacity to 50%. Restaurants had previously been allowed to operate at 75% capacity, and bars at 50%.

Here's your link.

Now clearly amongst what this Republican Governor is stating is that there's been a major and very identifiable recent rise in those requiring hospitalisation within the state - so that'd presumably very largely be the elderly and infirm. So they've started to contract the virus in increasing numbers again.

Separately and as Av has said, lockdowns of some sort or another have been implemented globally by most nations, so it's of course utter nonsense to maintain that they've been adopted as a strategy "to turn corona into a political weapon against Trump". There is life outside the US, yanno? Rolling Eyes

That's not to say that within the US, the Dems are not taking the opportunity to criticise Trump's handling of the domestic US health situation as vehemently as possible. Of course they are. That's what oppositions do on any issue, whether justified or not.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
Separately and as Av has said, lockdowns have been implemented globally by most nations, so it's of course utter nonsense to maintain that in general that they've been implemented "to turn corona into a political weapon against Trump". There is life outside the US, yanno? Rolling Eyes


I don't disagree with this sentiment--outside the United States Trump is irrelevant.

Every time the infection rate or number of cases goes up the mortality rate goes down, so I wonder why we are still being presented with the idea that corona is somehow automatically a death sentence?

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Every time the infection rate or number of cases goes up the mortality rate goes down, so I wonder why we are still being presented with the idea that corona is somehow automatically a death sentence?
Because it sells fear. Which drives both the preferred narrative and advertising dollars.

Again, look at the actual numbers coming from the states and the CDC. This was never a particularly deadly virus for most people. Rather than governing in a sane, rational way, we're being herded by forces who have created a panic-stricken mob that's hell-bent on shaming anyone who points out how stupid (and illegal, and unconstitutional) this sham has been.

If you are 35 and in good health, you have a greater chance of dying in a fall than dying from COVID-19.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Straw man, I am afraid, gentlemen - at least as far as opinions expressed here in the Tank are concerned. Nobody here has said that "corona is somehow automatically a death sentence". In fact, the only people prepared to guesstimate actual US mortality figures - me and Soulbiter - have proven to be quite conservative with our estimates so far.

And Obi?
Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Rather than governing in a sane, rational way, we're being herded by forces who have created a panic-stricken mob that's hell-bent on shaming anyone who points out how stupid (and illegal, and unconstitutional) this sham has been.
Again with the amorphous and faceless "forces". Clearly such "forces" must have acted on a worldwide or global basis, given the fact that most nations have taken very similar courses of action. Despite repeated requests, I still await any theory or even mere opinion from either of you as to just who these shadowy "forces" might be and what their objectives are.

And as for "panic-stricken mobs"? I'm not seeing much sign of that. At all. If the majority of the populace - any populace - were "panic-stricken" as you assert, then they wouldn't be taking advantage of the easing of lockdown measures. Instead they'd all be fearfully cowering locked up at home indoors - which is clearly not the case.

Two remaining things. Firstly, the sole moot point, for all the vociferously advanced conspiracy theories, remains the cost-effectiveness of the measures taken - and sure, it's not a small moot point.

Secondly, the easing of social distancing measures around the world is (of course and as expected) already producing a statistically significant rise in cases of infection and thus resultant numbers requiring hospitalisation. The question now for governments the world over is - how most sensibly to react to that?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Every time the infection rate or number of cases goes up the mortality rate goes down, so I wonder why we are still being presented with the idea that corona is somehow automatically a death sentence?


Because it sells fear. ...

[...]

If you are 35 and in good health, you have a greater chance of dying in a fall than dying from COVID-19.


This seems to imply that one (i.e. the "right-minded") shouldn't fear that certain swaths of the populace -- elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, prisoner -- are at (greater) risk.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
Nobody here has said that "corona is somehow automatically a death sentence".
There is a world outside of this little forum, you know. That bit of misinformation is rampant in the news and on social media.

TheFallen wrote:
And Obi?
Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Rather than governing in a sane, rational way, we're being herded by forces who have created a panic-stricken mob that's hell-bent on shaming anyone who points out how stupid (and illegal, and unconstitutional) this sham has been.
Again with the amorphous and faceless "forces". Clearly such "forces" must have acted on a worldwide or global basis, given the fact that most nations have taken very similar courses of action.
The fact that several nations have chosen poorly has zero impact on what's happening in the US. 45 million people were put out of work for no reason, other than getting them scared, pissed off, and broke. Our media has been shilling fear from the outset, which means that the governments have been free to do whatever they wish in the name of public health and safety.

A cynical person could say that this was to hide the fact that a senile, handsy old man has been selected as the champion of one of our political parties, and something needed to be done to hide that fact.

TheFallen wrote:
And as for "panic-stricken mobs"? I'm not seeing much sign of that. At all. If the majority of the populace - any populace - were "panic-stricken" as you assert, then they wouldn't be taking advantage of the easing of lockdown measures. Instead they'd all be fearfully cowering locked up at home indoors - which is clearly not the case.
Respectfully, it is the case here. My FB feed is inundated with people shrieking at anyone who dares venture out from their homes. A friend of mine has un-ironically stated that based on the numbers, if you catch Coronavirus you have a 1 in 20 chance of dying.

The response to the virus in the US was completely wrong, on both a legal and a moral level.

Wosbald wrote:
This seems to imply that one (i.e. the "right-minded") shouldn't fear that certain swaths of the populace -- elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, prisoner -- are at (greater) risk.
Only if you're trying to take a poke at someone and ignore the actual things that are being said.

Since Hashi and I have made perfectly clear that the at-risk population should have been the people who were put under the lockdown and should have taken more care, that makes it pretty clear that you're either not paying attention or just trying to score some cheap points.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

+JMJ+

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Wosbald wrote:
This seems to imply that one (i.e. the "right-minded") shouldn't fear that certain swaths of the populace -- elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, prisoner -- are at (greater) risk.


Only if you're trying to take a poke at someone and ignore the actual things that are being said.

Since Hashi and I have made perfectly clear that the at-risk population should have been the people who were put under the lockdown and should have taken more care, that makes it pretty clear that you're either not paying attention or just trying to score some cheap points.


So, the "right-minded" policy would have been to put the elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, and prisoner under lockdown?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wosbald wrote:
+JMJ+

Obi-Wan Nihilo wrote:
Wosbald wrote:
This seems to imply that one (i.e. the "right-minded") shouldn't fear that certain swaths of the populace -- elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, prisoner -- are at (greater) risk.


Only if you're trying to take a poke at someone and ignore the actual things that are being said.

Since Hashi and I have made perfectly clear that the at-risk population should have been the people who were put under the lockdown and should have taken more care, that makes it pretty clear that you're either not paying attention or just trying to score some cheap points.


So, the "right-minded" policy would have been to put the elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, and prisoner under lockdown?
I will not be baited by such a transparent false choice, particularly with your scare quotes around something I never said. Obvious Kafkatrap is obvious.

My position has been made crystal clear over the course of this thread. Perhaps you should read it.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

well it looks like the US has not got it under wraps yet



Is it really THIS bad?

Here we are in a bit of a bubble and have no cases at all atm. Hopefully it will stay that way ... and Texas and Florida are facing the worst numbers of increases.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wosbald wrote:
So, the "right-minded" policy would have been to put the elderly, infirm, migrant, impoverished, homeless, and prisoner under lockdown?


Prisoners were already under lockdown--you "socially distance" them by keeping in their cells more than normal. The elderly were in nursing/assisted living homes--locking them down means "no entry to anyone who is not family and who is not evidencing any symptoms" as well as giving them actual CBR hazmat suits if they want to go out into the public. The infirm are similar to the elderly--no visitors except family who are not symptomatic. The impoverished and homeless....most of the time they cannot be helped, anyway, so all we can do is allow them to make their own choices. Migrants also make their own choices--they don't have to come here, they choose it.

The "wrong-minded" policy is what we got--ridiculous half-measures here, overly draconian measures there, and no one knows what the hell they are doing.


Skyweir wrote:
well it looks like the US has not got it under wraps yet


Look at where that red curve for the United States starts to go up--that is very early June. The average time between exposure and onset of symptoms is anywhere from 1 day to 14 days with the general average being 5 days. If you backtrack 5 days from early June you arrive at very late May....which is exactly when the George Floyd protests were getting underway.

Conclusion: the recent protests are responsible for the significant uptick in cases in the United States.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Look at where that red curve for the United States starts to go up--that is very early June. The average time between exposure and onset of symptoms is anywhere from 1 day to 14 days with the general average being 5 days. If you backtrack 5 days from early June you arrive at very late May....which is exactly when the George Floyd protests were getting underway.

Conclusion: the recent protests are responsible for the significant uptick in cases in the United States.
Hmmm. I'm not sure that correlation equals causation here Hashi - but you may be right, at least in some part.

What interests me more is the difference in patterns well before that point. The EU and the US traced remarkably similar curves for the first six or so weeks (with the US lagging by around two weeks).

But then the steep decline of the European trace is not replicated at all in the US figures. One wonders why?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uh, please refer to my earlier link showing that places with the most protesting happening did not experience a concomitant rise in cases thereafter.

I see multiple states in the US reporting record new infection numbers for several days running now, (which obviously will have the knock-on effect of more hospitalisations, more deaths, etc. etc.

(20 years in Vietnam cost less than half as many American lives so far...)

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
Hashi Lebwohl wrote:

Conclusion: the recent protests are responsible for the significant uptick in cases in the United States.
Hmmm. I'm not sure that correlation equals causation here Hashi - but you may be right, at least in some part.


Although I agree that most of the time correlation does not imply causation, sometimes correlation does imply causation. This is actually the foundation of the Scientific Method--someone notices a pattern in a certain series of events and so they investigate and experiment to see what is happening and what causes it.

I also agree with Avatar--not every place with protests now have a spike. In Texas, though, there is so much correleation between protests and spikes that it seems conclusive.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi, why do you reckon that the US has very obviously not followed the same patterns in terms of declining infection rates as Europe - as per Sky's posted graph?

That's not a loaded question btw... I'm genuinely interested. And I don't think it can be attributed to much wider testing in the US either. Some EU countries have tested more and some less per head of population, when compared to the US, so on balance, the level of testing is going to be similar in both geographies. And certainly too similar to explain the large discrepancy in the graphs...
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anecdotally, my Brother in law tested positive for Covid. Since my wife and I have had contact with him AND we take care of my 90 year old Father in law, we have been cautious and got tested today and took my Father in law to get tested.

I have no symptoms
Wife has no symptoms
FIL has no symptoms.

Brother in law had fairly mild ones. Diarrhea and unexplained tiredness. As far as I know his symptoms passed pretty fast.

It will be interesting to see how the tests come out. I should know in 2 - 6 days. Sucks because now I have to self-quarantine through the holiday weekend. If we hear back negative before then, then our self quarantine is over. If positive, then we have another couple of weeks to self quarantine. Good thing my beer cooler is stocked.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheFallen wrote:
Hashi, why do you reckon that the US has very obviously not followed the same patterns in terms of declining infection rates as Europe - as per Sky's posted graph?


Our infection rates have not dropped specifically because of all the recent race-related protests. Too many people, whether they are wearing masks or not, leads to a super-spreader event.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So what? Do we now ban the gathering together of people for the purposes of peaceful protest on the grounds of it's Covid risk potential? There are many Governments the world over who would love that! These are the democratic freedoms you were fighting to retain not so many pages back Hashi.
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