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Covid-19 (Part 2)
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deflection.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brother ur-Nan wrote:
Deflection.


You're the idiot defending the murderous Mexican cartels.

Idiot.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, that typically happens when a poster encounters some truth with which they disagree because it does not fit their little agenda they are trying to push.

I suspect New York Governor Cuomo is glad for the sexual harassment charges because it serves as a deflection away from all those nursing home deaths he personally ordered.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice forum, Hashi. Nice forum.

----------

Quote:
Covid-19 cases are down, vaccinations are up. But the US shouldn't declare victory yet.
The risks of reopening too quickly, explained.

[...] "We risk another rebound of cases if people act like it's over," Tara Smith, a public health professor at Kent State University, told me. "I'm worried about complacency as cases decrease - it seems we haven't yet learned the lessons of the pandemic, that if you start trying to return to 'normal' too soon, cases creep back up again."

[...] "We are in the race between the virus/variants and vaccines," Wafaa El-Sadr, a Columbia University epidemiologist, told me, "and the future depends on the scale up of vaccination and prevention of transmission to avoid evolution of new variants." [link]

So ...

Sane people: The Precautions are Working! Let's not stop Now! The End is Near! Hurray!

Conservatives: The Precautions are Working! So we don't need 'em any more! Party on, Dudes!

Just kidding. It should be:

Conservatives: We had a few cases, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: We had a mild outbreak, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: Okay, some people died, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: Yes, lot's of people died, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: Well, it got much worse, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: Dear god, but that was some biblical death, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!

Conservatives: Arrggghhh *blurble* *thud* ......
More Conservatives: .... but it's over. Party on, Dudes!
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wayfriend wrote:
Conservatives: We had a mild outbreak, but it's over. Party on, Dudes!


This is the only one which is accurate. It was not as bad as the alarmists were claiming it was going to be this time last year. Good to know that I was right, all along.

wayfriend wrote:
Nice forum, Hashi. Nice forum.


It is quite nice, now that you mention it. Thank you for your kind words. What makes it nice is that it isn't a Liberal or Progressive echo chamber like much of the Internet.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Texas Covid vaccination plan is awesome. They obviously understand statistics.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brother ur-Nan wrote:
You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.


I cannot be, because then I would be a Democrat.

I said quite plainly a year ago that corona was not that deadly and Johns Hopkins numbers proves it, unless you want to call those people--who are actually doctors--liars, as well.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brother ur-Nan wrote:
You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.


Thats not a rebuttle. Was there something you disagree with and want to rebut something Hashi said?
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Brother ur-Nan wrote:
You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.


I cannot be, because then I would be a Democrat.

I said quite plainly a year ago that corona was not that deadly and Johns Hopkins numbers proves it, unless you want to call those people--who are actually doctors--liars, as well.


You're a damn liar because you are saying there is about a 1-2% chance fo spreading the virus from one person to another. This is completely false, and that's not the kind of information that you could get from the Johns Hopkins website tracker anyway.

If you put two people in the same room. One person is sick, the other isn't. It would be much higher than 1-2%. That is why there are super-spreader events. One person can infect 15 or more people. That wouldn't logically be possible if the virus only had a 1% chance of spreading when two people are in close contact. It spreads just by someone talking, without a mask. That is why you are a liar.

The fact that the numbers are lower is because 1) testing limitations 2) social distancing.

As I recall, your fucking idiot of a governor decided to end the social distancing policy in Texas.

You're also lying about the mortality rate because you imply that it is not a big deal. The mortality rate has steadily gone down from about 5-6% overall in the US (a fucking huge mortality rate, by the way) because physicians are better able to treat the disease. When hospitals are overrun, the mortality rate will skyrocket. When New York hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID cases, the mortality rate was about 10% or higher. With numbers like that, you might as well be playing Russian roulette.

If you catch a severe case of COVID, maybe then you will start to realize that it is much more serious than the flu. All I am saying is you better handle it stoically if either you or someone else catches it and is facing death. Don't come crying on here because you have repeatedly spread misinformation and played down the threat for the past year.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoulBiter wrote:
Brother ur-Nan wrote:
You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.


Thats not a rebuttle. Was there something you disagree with and want to rebut something Hashi said?

"You're an idiot" isn't a rebuttal either.

Ergo, Double Standards. You know it and I know it, but I like pointing it out when you stupidly make it all too apparent.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's more than double standards. The deliberate misinformation campaign by Hashi et. al. is basically criminal behavior.

Hashi is cherry picking information from a COVID tracker website and then claiming that the doctors themselves are saying that the virus is neither very contagious nor very deadly, which are both completely false statements. Physicians and other public health officials have been sounding the alarm about COVID throughout the pandemic, but Republicans have simply been laughing about it and creating policies designed to spread the virus as much as possible.

You can bet that Republican politicians are taking personal measures to prevent themselves from getting sick. Then again, they probably aren't because Republicans apparently really are stupid and don't believe in science.

----

If you want to actually see some real data regarding how infectious COVID is, the R0 (r-naught) value for COVID is around 6. That means, on average, 1 person infected with COVID will infect 6 other people. You can do the math to figure out that it will quickly spread throughout the population. R0 for the flu is a little less than 1. COVID is a highly infectious disease.

As for case fatality rates, it is highly variable for COVID. While physicians have gotten better at treating COVID patients, the number can still very easily go up if medical resources are stretched thin. You can't give people life-saving treatment if the equipment for said treatment is being used by other people.

Let's pick a completely unrealistic number, 1%, and call it the case fatality rate for COVID (it isn't). If the entire population of the US got infected, about 350 million people, then 3.5 million will die. Up to around 10 million will die at the current case fatality rate, assuming everyone was infected.

Of course, that is a completely unrealistic number because the case fatality rate would quickly skyrocket in such a worst-case scenario. Going by case fatality rates in hard-hit European countries at the start of the pandemic, 11-15% is a more accurate case fatality rate for COVID-19 under a scenario when hospital resources are stretched thin. That is about 53 million dead. If that many people are getting sick and dying, though, the number would likely be much higher. Probably around 20% of people with COVID would die if modern medicine was unavailable.

Having more people get infected also means that it is much more likely that vaccine-resistant strains of the virus can emerge, which completely undermines the vaccination effort that is underway.

The only thing preventing this worst-case scenario are the social distancing policies that Republicans mock. Otherwise there's nothing that would prevent the virus from infecting over half of the population, leading to millions of deaths over the course of the pandemic.

Honestly deliberately infecting the entire population and causing the deaths of millions is more than just criminal negligence. It is on the same level as the Nazis and communists in terms of evil and crimes against humanity.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wayfriend wrote:
SoulBiter wrote:
Brother ur-Nan wrote:
You're a goddamn liar, Hashi.


Thats not a rebuttle. Was there something you disagree with and want to rebut something Hashi said?

"You're an idiot" isn't a rebuttal either.

Ergo, Double Standards. You know it and I know it, but I like pointing it out when you stupidly make it all too apparent.


Incorrect. I note that you only posted part of the sentence. Which, by itself would also not been a rebuttle. But taken in context it was a rebut of part of URs post previously.

Quote:
You're the idiot defending the murderous Mexican cartels.


I would love to see the derogatory name calling from everyone go away. I think the likelihood of that happening to be pretty small.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rebuttal*
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a message board and the part we are on is only visited by a handful of individuals. There is no criminal behavior in posting your opinions no matter how much you agree or disagree. I would argue that posting opinions then agreeing or disagreeing is the sole purpose of the tank.

The virus is contagious. The virus is deadly but only to a small subset of the population with very few exceptions. The largest demographic MOST at risk are 72 years or older. Followed by those 65 and older, followed by those 50 and older, etc. Then there is a subset demographic that can be in any of those groups and those are individuals with underlying comorbid conditions.

If vaccinations are done correctly they will make those groups a priority that are MOST at risk. By doing this, the groups that are most likely to be hospitalized will be protected, thus creating a condition where others that might by the exception and end up hospitalized will not have problems finding room or care. Some States belive that by end of March they will have 90% of the 72 and over population vaccinated and 65% of those 65 to 71 vaccinated.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brother ur-Nan wrote:
Rebuttal*


Also not a rebuttal. But thanks for the spell check my phone didn't provide.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoulBiter wrote:
This is a message board and the part we are on is only visited by a handful of individuals. There is no criminal behavior in posting your opinions no matter how much you agree or disagree. I would argue that posting opinions then agreeing or disagreeing is the sole purpose of the tank.

The virus is contagious. The virus is deadly but only to a small subset of the population with very few exceptions. The largest demographic MOST at risk are 72 years or older. Followed by those 65 and older, followed by those 50 and older, etc. Then there is a subset demographic that can be in any of those groups and those are individuals with underlying comorbid conditions.

If vaccinations are done correctly they will make those groups a priority that are MOST at risk. By doing this, the groups that are most likely to be hospitalized will be protected, thus creating a condition where others that might by the exception and end up hospitalized will not have problems finding room or care. Some States belive that by end of March they will have 90% of the 72 and over population vaccinated and 65% of those 65 to 71 vaccinated.


Notice I used the word "deliberately." It's one thing to express an opinion (something that you sincerely believe) but an entirely different one if your intention is malicious. If it's the latter, then it is definitely criminal behavior.

It's one thing to say that you can protect the groups most at risk with vaccines and then everything is "hunky-dory" but allowing the virus to spread among "people less at risk" means that new strains of the virus WILL emerge. That's what viruses do. We've already seen the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains in South Africa and Brazil. These will become common strains in the US if allowed to proliferate.

Thus your policy proposal makes no sense.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are pushing fear of the unknown. The virus might also mutate into a less dangerous strain.. i.e. The Spanish flu.

Using your method the world will social distance and wear masks for years. Economies will be held back for years. If dangerous mutations do occur in places like Brazil or anywhere that are vaccine resistant then it would be dangerous for years to come. Because that is what viruses do.

However these are risks for any virus. To govern by fear is wrong.

Thus your policy proposal makes no sense.

Edit to add. How do you know that Hashi's posts are purposely malicious? You are assigning intent and motivation to someone else. That will be impossible to prove unless he specifically says that is his intent.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoulBiter wrote:
You are pushing fear of the unknown. The virus might also mutate into a less dangerous strain.. i.e. The Spanish flu.

Using your method the world will social distance and wear masks for years. Economies will be held back for years. If dangerous mutations do occur in places like Brazil or anywhere that are vaccine resistant then it would be dangerous for years to come. Because that is what viruses do.

However these are risks for any virus. To govern by fear is wrong.
.


1. That's not how natural selection works.

2. Social distancing for years? If we have a consistent response, that shouldn't be necessary. You're probably right about having to wear masks for years, though.

3. To govern by fear is wrong... Let me reframe that. It is a government's duty to not sugarcoat things and to act in the public's best interest. Sometimes the truth is terrifying. That doesn't assign a value judgement to the government from a moral standpoint, though.

The best response would be to social distance with public mask wearings, prevent large gatherings of people, etc. until a vaccine can be developed and distributed to most of the population. Once most of the population can be vaccinated (at a level that achieves herd immunity), then pandemic measures can be slowly rolled back over a few months. Mask mandates can be phased out over several months or longer.

If you mess any of these steps up, then you could be in the pandemic far longer than necessary, which will only mean more deaths, and that can have its own impact on the economy rather than if you just follow public health officials' advice and created a responsible policy in the first place.

You act like this isn't possible, but other countries have done the same and have overcame the pandemic with minimal economic impact. I am not talking about China.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of what you posted is possible and I dont deny it would work.. However it is also unnecessary. The truth is terrifying to some. To others the truth sets you free.

At this time it is best to go ahead and reopen. It will be a while before all States do so but its happening already. I believe I read this AM that a Democrat controlled State has now followed suit and is reopening. Some businesses say they will keep their mandate regardless. That is their right. Montana is open but Big Sky Ski still mandates masks. We all wore masks because it is their right as a private business to do so and it is our choice to do business with them and go ski. Freedom. Its a wonderful thing.
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