Kevin's Watch Forum Index
 HomeHome   MemberlistMemberlist   RegisterRegister   SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   FAQFAQ   StatisticsStatistics  SudokuSudoku   Phoogle MapPhoogle Map 
 AlbumAlbum StoresStores   StoresItems Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Dumb-assed stats question
Goto page Previous  1, 2
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> The Loresraat
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Fist and Faith
Magister Vitae


Joined: 01 Dec 2002
Posts: 19692

Thanks: 100
Thanked 104 Times in 100 Posts


15619 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Foul Duck1 Lord Mhoram's Victory1 2011 Watchies


PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah! Not caring which of the three cards your partner gets does not mean the multiple possibilities don't have to be taken into account when figuring the odds!

I am but an egg.
_________________
...you won't end up on the wrong side of the police if you don't commit any crimes. - Hashi Lebwohl

All lies and jest
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest
-Paul Simon
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail MSN Messenger Phoogle Map
wayfriend
whilom witling

Male
Joined: 21 Apr 2004
Posts: 20376

Thanks: 11
Thanked 247 Times in 226 Posts

Location: In reality once again
49987 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
3 Member of Linden's Army


PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should explain...

There are 3 players who could get the first card.
3 the second.
3 the third.

These are independent events*. So there should be 3x3x3 permutations.

When you use values that are X/27 you will get answers that correlate with the others.

__________
* Or are they?
_________________
* I occasionally post things on KevinsWatch because I am a fan of Stephen R. Donaldson; this should not be considered as condonation of the white nationalist propaganda which is posted far too frequently on this website.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Hashi Lebwohl
Director of Data Acquisition

Male
Joined: 06 Jul 2009
Posts: 17122

Thanks: 29
Thanked 139 Times in 135 Posts

Location: UMCPHQ
98986 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Caesure1 Insequent1 UMCPHQ


PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I never saw this question until just now. I will have to address it later, though--time for a quick nap before the second half-job.
_________________
Fist and Faith wrote:
If you do not support your accusation at any time, I will delete your post.


Do unto others as you would have them do unto you and you shouldn't have any problems.

Don Exnihilote wrote:
Hashi, if you thought you were wrong at times, evidently you were mistaken.


Mensa and Intertel
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rigel
Tenno Awoken


Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 2039

Thanks: 17
Thanked 8 Times in 8 Posts

Location: Portland, OR
2353 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2021 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fist and Faith wrote:
I was thinking about this some more. Without considering specific cards, we have a fairly small number of possibilities, and can actually count them. So there are three other players: A, B, C. Each can have 0, 1, 2, or all 3 of those cards. So the possibilities are:

A B C
3 0 0
2 1 0
2 0 1
1 1 1
1 2 0
1 0 2
0 3 0
0 0 3
0 2 1
0 1 2

Ten possibilities. The chances of your partner having:
all three is 1/10 or 10%
two of three is 2/10 or 20%
one of three is 3/10 or 30%
none of three is 4/10 or 40%

Where did I go wrong???


But the odds are not equal. You already know one card in your hand, meaning you only have 12 remaining cards, where the other 3 all have 13.
_________________
"You make me think Hell is run like a corporation."
"It's the other way around, but yes."
Obaki, Too Much Information
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Phoogle Map
Hashi Lebwohl
Director of Data Acquisition

Male
Joined: 06 Jul 2009
Posts: 17122

Thanks: 29
Thanked 139 Times in 135 Posts

Location: UMCPHQ
98986 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Caesure1 Insequent1 UMCPHQ


PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2021 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whoops--I forgot to revist this question.

It will be eaiser to calculate the probability that your partner does not have any of those cards, then just 1-p it.

You have the jack and 12 other cards, so we can reduce the deck to 39; the other 12 cards in your hand are irrelevant. Having either the queen, the king, or the ace is 3/39, which we can reduce to 1/13. From here, it is a straightforward binomial. Since none of their cards are the ones you want, each card is a 12/13 probability to have and they have 13 cards in hand.

p (not having queen, king, or ace) = (12/13)^13 = 0.353258498

1 - p = 0.646741502 = the probability that they have at least one spade higher than the jack you hold.

_________________
Fist and Faith wrote:
If you do not support your accusation at any time, I will delete your post.


Do unto others as you would have them do unto you and you shouldn't have any problems.

Don Exnihilote wrote:
Hashi, if you thought you were wrong at times, evidently you were mistaken.


Mensa and Intertel
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Fist and Faith
Magister Vitae


Joined: 01 Dec 2002
Posts: 19692

Thanks: 100
Thanked 104 Times in 100 Posts


15619 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Foul Duck1 Lord Mhoram's Victory1 2011 Watchies


PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2021 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why didn't you stop at "Having either the queen, the king, or the ace is 3/39, which we can reduce to 1/13."? That seems to answer the question.

Although it certainly doesn't seem right.

But you came up with .65? That seems right, considering my above.
6 of 10 scenarios have at least one of those cards.
_________________
...you won't end up on the wrong side of the police if you don't commit any crimes. - Hashi Lebwohl

All lies and jest
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest
-Paul Simon


Last edited by Fist and Faith on Wed May 19, 2021 3:01 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail MSN Messenger Phoogle Map
Skyweir
Lord of Light


Joined: 16 Mar 2002
Posts: 21719

Thanks: 20
Thanked 85 Times in 85 Posts

Location: Australia
45843 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Lord's Staff1 Oath of Peace1 Furls Fire


PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2021 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are all such smartypantelones .. geez :Shocked
_________________
health and healing

'Smoke me a kipper .. I'll be back for breakfast!'

EZBoard SURVIVOR
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
SoulBiter
Cail is missed!!!

Ranyhyn
Joined: 02 Jun 2004
Posts: 6974

Thanks: 27
Thanked 55 Times in 54 Posts


22980 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Forbidding1 Giant Ship1 Giant


PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2021 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just remember, when you try to put this into play, the random nature of cards. Assuming that at the end of the first round, you have the suits mostly together, you have a better possibility of the cards being more evenly distributed if you dealt them right then. Depending on how the cards are shuffled and how many times before dealing will alter those odds somewhat. Example: If the cards had all the suits together (like a brand new set), if you shuffled 8 times the same way in a normal riffle shuffle, you are more likely to have put them very close to where they were when you started. In fact the worse the shuffler, the more random the shuffle will be and each time they shuffle, the cards will be even more random.

But that had nothing to do with the question and it looks like it was answered.
_________________
"He torments himself sufficiently."

**"You can deny if you will but the "hens" didn't just happen to show up when they did, by accident. "***

** Note to add that ALL of the hens have since disappeared***


"All of the above is my opinion and thus shouldnt need to be supported by anything other than more of my opinions. twocents "

We miss you Tracie but your Spirit will always shine brightly on the Watch
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> The Loresraat All times are GMT
Goto page Previous  1, 2
Page 2 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by Earthpower © Kevin's Watch