Kevin's Watch Forum Index
 HomeHome   MemberlistMemberlist   RegisterRegister   SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   FAQFAQ   StatisticsStatistics  SudokuSudoku   Phoogle MapPhoogle Map 
 AlbumAlbum StoresStores   StoresItems Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Is the World Doomed?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> Hile Troy's Think-Tank
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
peter
No Fear


Joined: 25 Aug 2009
Posts: 10457

Thanks: 41
Thanked 66 Times in 65 Posts

Location: HMP UK
63940 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 5:49 am    Post subject: Is the World Doomed? Reply with quote

Noam Chomsky said in a recent interview with the New Statesman (available in full over on YouTube) that the only thing preventing the war in Ukraine from escalation were sensible voices in the pentagon that appreciated the existential danger that this would represent. Left, he said, to the "armchair hawks" of the political class (with their no-fly zones and other misunderstood proposals) the war would rapidly escalate into a broader conflict in which the West would not be able to remain at a remove. These restraining voices from the pentagon would not, he said, be able to stall the progress of increased Western involvement indefinitely.

The Doomsday Clock currently sits at 100 seconds to midnight (the latter being the point at which the world self-destructs......or rather we destroy it), the closest it has ever been to the apocalyptic midnight hour. The war in Ukraine has pushed it closer to the end point, for obvious reasons. But there are some little known (or discussed) factors which should be concerning us more than even this 'analogue representation' of our danger would suggest.

Firstly, the use of nuclear weaponry in this conflict is very much on the table. For the Russians, with their third rate army in deep over its head and their (perhaps justified, perhaps not) paranoid watching of an ever closing in ring of NATO membership or aligned countries surrounding them, this is, in their eyes, an existential crisis already. If they don't win this, it's game over, and on this basis alone they will be prepared to push this to the limit, perhaps way beyond the point where we would more sanely stop. They are keenly aware of what they see as a possible pre-emptive strike being made against them, but - and here is where the true danger lies - they rely on an antiquated radar based detection system that gives them just about two minutes warning on a potential strike on Moscow. During this brief time they have to decide whether to initiate retaliatory strikes or whether this is a false alarm (and there are apparently lots of them). Unlike the West, who can track a missile from space, from the moment it leaves it's bunker/submarine and have proportionally that much longer to make assessments, this shortfall of time puts the entire Russian mindset on a much higher 'key' of anxiety. And it is in this anxiety that the true risk of nuclear Armageddon lies.

In a recent interview the chief executive of the leading arms manufacturers Lockheed said that they regarded the Ukrainian crisis as now being one that we were likely to be in for the long haul. While he didn't want the conflict to persist for a day longer than necessary (he said - you can believe him or not as you will) it was undeniable that the returns from the conflict would result in a boost in the company's value and increased returns for the shareholders to boot. In other words, as a result of resumption of hostilities in Europe, business was booming. Against this backdrop and given that many of the politicians who will be voting on this situation are invested up to the hilt n these companies, can we seriously expect anything to be done to bring this conflict to a swift and peaceful resolution. (Why, for example, are the avenues for diplomatic settlement put forward by Zelensky and Macron not being positively received in Washington?)

As an example of the interest of the defence industry in these events, take the case of the trident missile system.

An American submarine of the current type and of which there are at all times a number abroad in the wide oceans, has the onboard capability to destroy 200 cities of its choosing from any point on the earth's surface (well - you get what I mean). Yet this is not enough. New and more deadly submarines, with even higher destructive capabilities are on order, and netting billions of dollars to the military-industrial complex. There is unlikely ever to come a point where the defence industry recognises that enough is enough - and that sooner or later, one of these 'overkill' technologies is actually going to be used.

And what of Putin himself. Reports in yesterday's media tell us that he is sick. Very sick. Cancer and other game over level sick. And this is a man who will be making decisions about how to go forward with this war, with his back to the wall and no off-ramp being made available to him.

So here we have it. Hawks in Washington, a dying man in Moscow with his back to the wall. Military-industrial complexes with eyes only on the dollars and for whom peace is anathema. Nineteen seventies technologies allied with paranoia and fear of attack. An army out of its depth and a country in existential fear for its future. Tell me what such a chess board of pieces adds up to in your eyes, where logically you see this game headed? I hope you have a better vision of it than I do, because for me it looks like the pieces are about to be swept off the board.
_________________
Time to rename our species Homo sapiens ovis: ovis - that's Latin for sheep if you didn't know.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Hashi Lebwohl
Director of Data Acquisition

Male
Joined: 06 Jul 2009
Posts: 18918

Thanks: 29
Thanked 139 Times in 135 Posts

Location: UMCPHQ
110125 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Caesure1 Insequent1 UMCPHQ


PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Noam Chomsky--let me stop you right there. That man is an old-school Progressive and most of what he says are lies because he hates conservatives of all flavors. Noam Chomsky wants global Socialism and he will say anything he thinks he needs to say to attain that goal.

Now, back to the main point....no one, I mean literally no one, is going to go nuclear over Ukraine or anything else any time soon. If Putin calls his Cabinet and military leaders into conference today and pounds his fist on table, screaming "nuke them till they glow, then shoot them in the dark!" they will collectively relieve him of his powers and usher him out of the room. They may be spineless yes-men too much of the time but they aren't going to go down that route.

Even Iran, the country Chairman Joe is desperate to help get their uranium enrichment program back on track, when it gets weapons-grade uranium won't go nuclear....but probably only becaue Jersualem--yes, it is still the current capital of Israel, thank you very much--will have missile-struck the enrichment facilities into rubble.

Even China won't go nuclear over Taiwan--they don't want to destroy Taiwan because they will need its manufacturing and financial structures intact and they won't launch against the United States because it is bad business to kill one's best customer.

No, the world is not doomed. Humanity will be doomed if we don't get these goddamned Liberals and Progressives out of power, but the world....the world itself ignores us and will keep spinning after the last human has died.

_________________
Don Exnihilote wrote:
Hashi, if you thought you were wrong at times, evidently you were mistaken.


Zarathustra wrote:
People who collude together don't oppose each other's desires. Trump stood up to Putin. Biden caved.


Mensa and Intertel

Let's go, Brandon
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
peter
No Fear


Joined: 25 Aug 2009
Posts: 10457

Thanks: 41
Thanked 66 Times in 65 Posts

Location: HMP UK
63940 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing Good man Hashi - though I'm not sure whether that was an optimistic post on your part or a pessimistic one. Wink

On Chomsky - yes it's pretty clear that the fellow considers the US as something akin to what one might step in if frequenting a regular dog-walkers route in the local park, but on this point he might be telling something approximating to the truth. The pentagon (to my understanding) has not been keen on the idea of a no-fly zone because of the risk of setting Western fighter planes directly into conflict with their Russian counterparts (plus, that to be in the least bit effective, such a policy would require direct operations on air-bases within Russian territory itself, which would be a major escalation in Russian eyes if no-one else's).

But on the whole I'm thinking I'm with you. It would take a particular type of madness to start down the road that would lead to nuclear Armageddon, and one finds it difficult to think that even in the face of the presence of a few such lunatics, the majority will in virtually all regimes across the globe, good or bad, would be against such folly.

But then I get to thinking - perhaps those scientists who propose (in answer to the famous question posed by Enrico Fermi, "Where are they?") that the destruction of rising intelligences is hardwired into their existence via the technologies they create as they ascend, might not be so far from the truth. We seem, if our media is to be believed, to have so many existential threats hanging over us (via the traditional four horsemen and others besides) that our future would seem to be hanging by a thread even on a good day.

But I agree, we have to trust that in the case of nuclear warfare, the horror of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are still fresh enough in our collective memory to prevent such lunacy taking hold (despite the best efforts of the arms companies to convince us that when it comes to overkill, the sky is the best limit that you can aim for).

Yes, I'm sure we're right. We have to be right.
_________________
Time to rename our species Homo sapiens ovis: ovis - that's Latin for sheep if you didn't know.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Слава Україні
Ukraine is not yet lost


Joined: 07 Jan 2018
Posts: 3276

Thanks: 19
Thanked 11 Times in 11 Posts


14517 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:


PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Noam Chomsky is a degenerate communist, and no, the world is not doomed.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Hashi Lebwohl
Director of Data Acquisition

Male
Joined: 06 Jul 2009
Posts: 18918

Thanks: 29
Thanked 139 Times in 135 Posts

Location: UMCPHQ
110125 White Gold Dollars
Tokens
HP

User Items:
1 Caesure1 Insequent1 UMCPHQ


PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
Laughing Good man Hashi - though I'm not sure whether that was an optimistic post on your part or a pessimistic one. Wink


Both, because I strive to look at both the big and the long-term pictures in a realistic sense. At some point, whether by natural event or man-made one, there will be an *actual* mass die-off of humans on a scale we have not seen before, something likely to dwarf even the Spanish Flu of 1918--the corona we just got over wasn't even close to that. Up until that point, though, we will continue to produce miracles--but the miracle for which I hope is neural cybernetics. If we can somehow digitize someone's memories and thought processes then we can finally get past the fear of death--who cares if your physical form dies if your mind is alive and well inside a server with a decent simulation running?

Once humanity is gone, though, our footprint will leave scars for a century or two as all those dams fail, all those power plants shut down, and those buildings crumble and fall over. That's your warning--after the apocalypse don't stay in a large city; instead, you find a remote farm and you become self-sustaining there.

_________________
Don Exnihilote wrote:
Hashi, if you thought you were wrong at times, evidently you were mistaken.


Zarathustra wrote:
People who collude together don't oppose each other's desires. Trump stood up to Putin. Biden caved.


Mensa and Intertel

Let's go, Brandon
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Kevin's Watch Forum Index -> Hile Troy's Think-Tank All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by Earthpower © Kevin's Watch