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Ebola outbreak
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lots of things that I disagree with on principle with Mr. Krauthammer Laughing and he is an excellent writer and a very clear thinker.

He makes two really good points that I hadn't considered:
    - medical staff in contact with a person with ebola should be considered as the first part of any 'tracing' that is done (logical, but easy to miss (as I did Confused ))

    - centralised treatment where there is already expertise is clearly a good idea*

u.

* I just heard that here in Ireland we now have a national treatment centre for ebola in Dublin. Fortunately, we've had no cases to deal with so far, but the infrastructure is now in place.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[url=abcnews.go.com/Health/dallas-ebola-watch-clears-group-quarantined/story?id=26316061]Dallas Ebola Watch Clears First Group Quarantined[/url]

So far it is looking good that the spread of Ebola in the US is limited to health care workers who directly handled the infected individual. This is really good news for people worried about it spreading on busses.

Mistrust of government spurs Ebola spread

That's referring to Liberia. Let's hope it stays that way. Let's hope people want it to.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes of course, it's distrust of governments in Africa that is hastening the spread of ebola, not the ineffectiveness/unpreparedness of African governments themselves? If only Africans would trust their governments, everything would be fine. Rolling Eyes And I guess we're supposed to apply that point to our own country, so that our own distrust doesn't cause ebola to spread here? [Strange, I haven't heard in any CDC guidelines that "trust the government" can save you from ebola. Laughing ]

Did you actually read that story, WF? I'm not sure it says what you think it says. The headline was misleading. The people of Liberia have good reason not to trust their government:

WF's second linked article wrote:
This is a crisis of governance as much as it is a crisis of Ebola,” Blair Glencorse, executive director of the Accountability Lab, an organization that empowers citizens to build creative tools for integrity and accountability in their communities, told IRIN.

Capacity and accountability haven’t been built within systems; not just healthcare systems, but financial management, education, and all the systems that allow the state to deal with crises,” he said. “So when you have an emergency like this, it quickly indicates that the government doesn’t have the trust of its people, it doesn’t have the capacity and it doesn’t have the tools it needs to handle such an outbreak.”

By 26 August, Liberia’s Ministry of Health had reported 1,471 cases of Ebola and 834 deaths, more than either Sierra Leone or Guinea. All three countries have similarly fragile healthcare systems, but in Liberia, a long history of mismanagement, exclusion and poor communication strategies have fuelled discontent among Liberians that the administration of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, in power since 2005, has not been able to shake.

“Responding to an Ebola outbreak would challenge any country, but the ferocity with which Ebola has struck Liberia has been intensified by several factors, notably a weak health network… and the cross-border nature of social relations,” Corrine Dufka, associate West Africa director for Human Rights Watch (HRW), told IRIN.

There has been some progress, said Dufka. “President Sirleaf and her government inherited a country with a profoundly devastated infrastructure, economy and institutions, and they have made considerable progress on a number of fronts.”

“That said, the government and their partners were slow to address the key factor underscoring Liberia’s history: endemic corruption,” Dufka added. “The government’s considerable rhetorical attention to the scourge has not been matched by a well-resourced and aggressive anti-corruption institution and support for the judiciary, which meant the same patterns of embezzlement and corruption have been able to persist.”

...

Some international media reports have cast Liberians as uneducated or ignorant rumour-mongers. But Susan Shepler, an associate professor at American University and a specialist on education and conflict in Sierra Leone and Liberia, said it is easy to understand why many Liberians tend to doubt government information.

“People are not acting out of ignorance, they’re acting out of experience,”
she told IRIN. “In Liberia people have historically used community information and rumours as a way of getting information at times when they weren’t sure whether to trust the government,” she said.




The only way one can suggest that distrust is the cause of ebola spreading (rather than a symptom of government incompetence) is by implying that these Africans are, "uneducated or ignorant rumour-mongers," as your article accuses the media of doing. But as the article points out, they're not ignorant, they're operating by experience and an accurate estimation of the government's ability.

But nice try scare-mongering us into trusting the Obama admin. LOL. I wonder how such a transparently political strategy would have went over in the Bush years. We just didn't trust Bush enough during Katrina. It wasn't that the government was mismanaging, it's all the critics' fault. Rolling Eyes Did you notice all the posts I've made in which Obama and his own government experts have admitted to the same criticisms we've made here? Don't you think the government is fueling distrust itself, with its own incompetence?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Responsible and rational citizens always maintain some level of distrust of their government.

There was never any reason to panic here; some worryworts simply have nothing better to do, though. I suspect the hypochondriacs were beside themselves with fear....


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't realize anyone was panicking. I know Dems would like to describe the criticisms as panic in order to dismiss them, but I haven't seen any real panic. Sure, you might be able to find an individual case here or there of people taking irrational precautions, but you'll find even more cases of people getting alarmed about a non-existent panic.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
Responsible and rational citizens always maintain some level of distrust of their government.

Yes. I wouldn't have it otherwise. But fostering distrust where it isn't warranted doesn't help during a health scare. It's when it goes so far as to imply that we shouldn't listen to safety advice that bothers me. That's what got many people in Liberia killed. If the government earned their distrust, well, then the government is liable for those deaths. But when the government doesn't earn distrust, but disregard of advice is propagandized as an election tactic, then who's culpable? We only need to look at the issue of immunization to see the result.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WF, it's hard to take government advice seriously when they are--right now--in the process of updating the CDC's own guidelines in light of the two nurses who got ebola by following the previous guidelines.

The two nurses who got ebola listened to the government's safety advice. Clearly, distrust in this case is warranted. The fact that the government is updating its advice is a tacit admission of that fact.

Now, regarding the bus advice ... no one here was saying that it's unsafe to ride the bus. We were criticizing the lack of clarity in the government's advice, indeed, the contradictory nature of it. The lack of clarity itself has the potential to cause panic.

If the government had simply treated us like adults and admitted that you can catch ebola on a bus--but it's extremely unlikely--I don't think people would have complained. After all, it's the truth. But because the Obama admin is more concerned about the political backlash (a concern you seem to share, given that's your primary reason for posting in this thread, judging by the content of your posts), they have until now been focused more on calming our fears rather than protecting us.

[Edit to add ... this is from a NYT article which is critical of the "panic:"

Quote:

The health care system, which has urged calm, has at times sent mixed messages that can promote fear. “There are two elements to trust,” said Baruch Fischhoff, a professor of decision sciences at Carnegie Mellon. “One is competence and one is honesty. The hospital in Dallas changed its story three times. So while most people know there are very few cases and this is not an easily transmissible virus, they also know the human system for managing this is imperfect, and they don’t know whether they are getting the straight story about it.”


I find it odd that they list the hospital changing its story, when there are more glaring examples in the fed gov. But the point is the same: people would trust the government more if it didn't seem so self-servingly condescending its blatantly false attempts to calm us, not to mention its incompetence.

Republicans aren't the only ones making this a campaign issue. Lots of Dems who are up for reelection are now suggesting a travel ban, disagreeing with Obama's position. Singling out Reps is itself political.]
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Remain faithful to the earth, my brothers, with the power of your virtue. Let your gift-giving love and your knowledge serve the meaning of the earth ... Do not let them fly away from earthly things and beat with their wings against eternal walls. Alas, there has always been so much virtue that has flown away. Lead back to the earth the virtue that flew away, as I do-back to the body, back to life, that it may give the earth a meaning, a human meaning. -Nietzsche
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wayfriend wrote:
Yes. I wouldn't have it otherwise. But fostering distrust where it isn't warranted doesn't help during a health scare.


It is my job--no, my civic duty--to foster distrust in the government regardless of who is in power. If the government can rise to the standard of getting me to trust them then we may rest assured that they are doing their job correctly.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some good news: [url=news.yahoo.com/us-cautiously-optimistic-no-ebola-5-days-172110466.html]US cautiously optimistic after no new Ebola in 5 days[/url]

It does look like ebola is hard to get except in the late stages of the disease. I'm surprised that no one in the Liberian's family got it, but it's comforting to know.

What's not so comforting to know is that in our 4 bio-containment hospitals, we have only 11 beds in the entire country that are specifically designed for the type of isolation in which the current ebola patients are being held. Eleven. As this outbreak has shown, America is seriously under-prepared for a major outbreak. I can't believe after 9/11 it's this bad.
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Remain faithful to the earth, my brothers, with the power of your virtue. Let your gift-giving love and your knowledge serve the meaning of the earth ... Do not let them fly away from earthly things and beat with their wings against eternal walls. Alas, there has always been so much virtue that has flown away. Lead back to the earth the virtue that flew away, as I do-back to the body, back to life, that it may give the earth a meaning, a human meaning. -Nietzsche
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zarathustra wrote:
As this outbreak has shown, America is seriously under-prepared for a major outbreak. I can't believe after 9/11 it's this bad.


As with all types of outbreaks, it comes to one thing.. Money.
I believe it was many military leaders of the past who said,
: "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

Why keeps a number of large beds empty for a outbreak that will not come or is limited in scope of it's infections. It's is waste of the hospital's resources to have dedicated section and staff operating it. The area would better serve the community for the more common ailments that people suffer from.

What is needed is a national policy or plan that would enable these hospitals to convert a part of it wards into isolation sections. Current staff and doctors who are trained in addition to their normal duties to become the isolation people to handle such types of outbreak. It just not Ebola but other highly infectious diseases, nerve agent attacks or whatever that needs a high isolation environment

But like all strategic plans, logistics is the key to success. And it take additional money to make those plans happen. Then there is the unforeseen that blows the existing plan all to nothing.
and who pays for it.. us. In one way or the other.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi, what's with the word I used and that you took offence at?

edit: replaced with for at

edit: checked my post, and the word wasn't used ad hominem, so I suppose that if I say "nazi", "murderer" or "lunatic" referring to remote third parties I will be warned?
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
There was never any reason to panic here; some worryworts simply have nothing better to do, though. I suspect the hypochondriacs were beside themselves with fear....[/color]
[/color]


On the contrary Hashi - we have nothing to fear because we already know we're dying! Wink
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zarathustra wrote:
Some good news: [url=news.yahoo.com/us-cautiously-optimistic-no-ebola-5-days-172110466.html]US cautiously optimistic after no new Ebola in 5 days[/url]

It does look like ebola is hard to get except in the late stages of the disease. I'm surprised that no one in the Liberian's family got it, but it's comforting to know.

What's not so comforting to know is that in our 4 bio-containment hospitals, we have only 11 beds in the entire country that are specifically designed for the type of isolation in which the current ebola patients are being held. Eleven. As this outbreak has shown, America is seriously under-prepared for a major outbreak. I can't believe after 9/11 it's this bad .


Seems Amber Vinson wasn't so forthcoming about her symptoms. Now we are finding that she had symptoms prior to her travel. The CDC is now reaching out to as many as 800 more people that might have had contact with her or flew on those airplanes.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoulBiter wrote:
Zarathustra wrote:
Some good news: [url=news.yahoo.com/us-cautiously-optimistic-no-ebola-5-days-172110466.html]US cautiously optimistic after no new Ebola in 5 days[/url]

It does look like ebola is hard to get except in the late stages of the disease. I'm surprised that no one in the Liberian's family got it, but it's comforting to know.

What's not so comforting to know is that in our 4 bio-containment hospitals, we have only 11 beds in the entire country that are specifically designed for the type of isolation in which the current ebola patients are being held. Eleven. As this outbreak has shown, America is seriously under-prepared for a major outbreak. I can't believe after 9/11 it's this bad .


Seems Amber Vinson wasn't so forthcoming about her symptoms. Now we are finding that she had symptoms prior to her travel. The CDC is now reaching out to as many as 800 more people that might have had contact with her or flew on those airplanes.
So, are we going to find out she called the CDC before she left for Ohio and they said it was ok to travel? Rolling Eyes

41 days is the magic number in order to be considered "Ebola free". It'll be nice to not have new cases through Thanksgiving. Not that we'll be in the clear so long as Ebola plagues West Africa, but hopefully we'll have learned some lessons along the way.... like don't let people who handle Ebola infected samples onto a cruise ships, ya dumb pieces of- Evil or Very Mad
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, don't go to Dallas.

Quote:
Maine teacher on leave over Ebola worry

Parents express concern after trip

By Jeremy C. Fox and Alyssa Edes | GLOBE STAFF OCTOBER 19, 2014

A Maine elementary school teacher was put on paid leave for up to 21 days, after parents expressed concerns that she could have been exposed to Ebola during a recent trip to Dallas, Maine School Administrative District #58 announced.

“At this time, we have no information to suggest that this staff member has been in contact with anyone who has been exposed to Ebola. However, the District and the staff members understand the parents’ concerns,” the district said in a statement.


The Portland Press Herald reported the teacher at Strong Elementary School attended an educators’ conference about 10 miles from Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, where Thomas Eric Duncan died of Ebola and two nurses contracted the disease.

Several school board members declined the Globe’s requests for comment Saturday. The school is in the town of Strong, about 80 miles west of Bangor.

While not commenting specifically on the Maine case, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesman Llelwyn Grant said, “The CDC is not recommending academic institutions base their decisions on travel history alone.” He added that the likelihood of contracting Ebola in circumstances like the Maine teacher’s was remote.

“You can’t get Ebola by simply touching an individual who has it, or for that matter just being in the state in which Ebola has been reported,” said Grant.

“So for an individual who has had no contact with a person with Ebola, there’s zero risk for something like that to happen.”

Grant said Ebola can only be passed from person to person during close, prolonged contact.

“I know that people are concerned and rightfully so,” he said. “It’s a pretty wicked virus. . . . We are encouraging folks at this time to educate themselves about the virus and its symptoms.”

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Morning wrote:

edit: checked my post, and the word wasn't used ad hominem, so I suppose that if I say "nazi", "murderer" or "lunatic" referring to remote third parties I will be warned?


No worries--most people worry more about potential ad hom than I do. It's all good. Check PMs.

Unfortunately for me, I can't not go to Dallas--I work there. Well, technically it is in Farmer's Branch but Dallas is only 1 km away at that point.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a minute, thanks.

I have been twitterspeaking since early July about the current EVD outbreakS with three fellows - Ahmed Tehjan-Sie MD, Ian MacKay PhD Virologist, and Henry Niman PhD in everything.

MacKay blocked me and the latter almost banned me for daring to question their crystallized assumptions about the disease, although I called five tipping points of the developing outbreak almost to the day.

So no it will probably not go airborne, but yes it's quite easy to catch because (Osterholm, Piot, Jahrling, Peters) it burns a lot hotter and skin (sweat and dying, shedding skin cells) will go into contact with new unaware hosts and the incubation period may include an infectious asymptomatic phase.

LBNL, it travels in cured people's semen and vaginal secretions for respectively 61 and 40 days. (proven, not speculation)
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)61828-6/fulltext

www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-plane-passenger-hospitalized-after-screening/

virologydownunder.blogspot.pt/2014/08/ebola-virus-in-semen-is-real-deal.html
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Morning wrote:
...yes it's quite easy to catch because (Osterholm, Piot, Jahrling, Peters) it burns a lot hotter and skin (sweat and dying, shedding skin cells) will go into contact with new unaware hosts and the incubation period may include an infectious asymptomatic phase.
And yet none of the Liberian man's family got it from him. Nor has anyone caught it from the two nurses. If it were easy to catch, wouldn't you expect more Americans to have shown symptoms by now?
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Morning
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darwinism at its best:

www.jewsnews.co.il/2014/10/20/muslim-nurses-refuse-to-wash-hands-before-operations-say-it-compromises-religious-beliefs/
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